Misouri and Bellewether Row

[True Democrat]

People say Missouri is the perfect bellewether state as it has only voted for the loser once in the past 100 years (1956).  I've noticed that the row of states that Missouri is in (Minnesota through Lousiana) is also a bellwether area.  The majority of these states have gone to the winner of Presidential election since 1900 (except in 1968 because of Wallace, but Nixon still beat Humphrey in the count 2-1)  What do you think of this trend?

[True Democrat]

No, I'm saying there' s trend that shows that whoever wins the majority of the five states from Minnesota to Louisiana.  This is true in every election since 1900 except 1968 because of Wallace (though Nixon did beat Humphrey two states to one).

[True Democrat]

that's pretty amazing, but unlikely to continue much longer if there is a democrat win, Minnesota is moderate democrat; Iowa a swing state; Missouri and Arkansas moderate Republican, and Louisiana a firm but not rock solid GOP state. I think the southwest is where it's at. You win 3 of CO, NM, AZ and NV and you win, i'd say. I'll just go oand check that, but even if it's not a past trend, it's a likely future one.

Ah... so the new area to look for shall be called the "Utah Bottleneck"

[True Democrat]

yep. EVERY ELECTION since AZ and NM joined, if you've wonm three of AZ, NM, NV and CO you've won.

In 1960, Kennedy won NV and NM, whilst Nixon won CO and AZ, but otherwise the winning candidate has recieved three states, and every time a candidate recieved three states, they won.

Not 1976.