Misouri and Bellewether Row

[jimrtex]

Gustaf was talking mean.  Thefactor inexplicably switched to median at the end of his post, but I did not read it (as I made the understandable assumption that people to do suddenly and abruptly change their topic in the middle of their posts) as such, so I posted the link to tell him that no, the mean center of population has not been in Indiana since 1950.

Gustaf wrote "centre of population" (sic).   The Census Bureau defines both a "mean center of population" and a "median center of population".

It is not clear which measure Gustaf was referring to, since it is not true that the center of population by either measure has always been in a state carried by the presidential winner.

Since the median center of population has indeed been in Indiana since 1950 (and also 1900 and 1910), then the clear implication is that thefactor was covering both cases, whichever Gustaf meant.

[jimrtex]

It's not ME...someone else on the forum wrote about this maybe a year ago. The definition was, IIRC, the intersection point between two lines dividing the US into west/east and north/south halves, population-wise. According to the person writing it, this was Missouri for most of recent times and originally in Maryland.

Here are the centers of population as defined by the US Census Bureau:

Median Center of Population

A curiosity is the loop back in the first half of the 20th century, while the mean continued to move eastward.  The NS median latitude is approaching the San Francisco area, while EW median longitude is approach the Chicago area.  Both will slow the southwestward progress of the median.

Mean Center of Population - Follow the Money

I would expect the median lines to more closely reflect sectional political differences.

[jimrtex]

Right. In any case, it's still a pretty remarkable phenomenon. Since 1840, the state with the mean center of population has gone with the winner in all except for 1916, which was kind of a strange election because Wilson narrowly won on the basis of his incumbency, which he only had in the first place because of Roosevelt's ultra-successful third-party challenge in 1912... probably the most successful "third party" challenge since 1860, at least.

1788-1808 Maryland.  In 1800 when the electoral votes were split (Maryland usually elected its electors by district), Jefferson had a bare majority of the popular vote.

1812-1852 Virginia.   Went for favorite son Crawford in 1824.  Voted for Van Buren in 1840, and Cass in 1848

1856 (Virginia or Ohio).  The mean center crossed the Ohio River into Ohio between 1850 and 1860.  Fremont carrried Ohio in 1856

1860-1876.  Ohio.  No misses.

1880 Kentucky (just south of Cincinnati, Ohio)).  Hancock carried Kentucky

1884-1940.  Indiana Hughes in 1916  It helps that Indiana was slightly more Democrat than other NW states such that Cleveland carried it in 1884 and 1892, but not 1888.

1944-1976.  Illinois  Ford in 1976

1980-2004.  Missouri.   No misses.

6 or 7 misses in 55 elections.  Has any single state done better?

[jimrtex]

1/2 of the population is within 676 miles of the 2000 median center of population.   

This includes everything east of the Mississippi except Florida south of Gainesville; extreme eastern Maryland (Ocean City); Delaware, New Jersey, and New England; all but the eastern edge of Pennsylvania (Chester County but not Delaware County, Allentown but not Bethlehem, Wilkes-Barre but not Scranton); and New York east of roughly Binghamton and Rome.

West of the Mississipi: Louisiana except the extreme SW corner (Lake Charles); Arkansas; Missouri; Iowa; Minnesota except the northwest (roughly from International Falls to just south of the MN-ND-SD intersection; less than 50 miles of eastern South Dakota; Nebraska east of Grand Island; Kansas east of Hutchison; Oklahoma east of just west of OKC; northeastern Texas, including the NE suburbs of Dallas, Sherman-Denison, Rusk, and Lufkin.

Circular Area Profiles

[jimrtex]

Right. In any case, it's still a pretty remarkable phenomenon. Since 1840, the state with the mean center of population has gone with the winner in all except for 1916, which was kind of a strange election because Wilson narrowly won on the basis of his incumbency, which he only had in the first place because of Roosevelt's ultra-successful third-party challenge in 1912... probably the most successful "third party" challenge since 1860, at least.

1788-1808 Maryland.  In 1800 when the electoral votes were split (Maryland usually elected its electors by district), Jefferson had a bare majority of the popular vote.

1812-1852 Virginia.   Went for favorite son Crawford in 1824.  Voted for Van Buren in 1840, and Cass in 1848

1856 (Virginia or Ohio).  The mean center crossed the Ohio River into Ohio between 1850 and 1860.  Fremont carrried Ohio in 1856

1860-1876.  Ohio.  No misses.

1880 Kentucky (just south of Cincinnati, Ohio)).  Hancock carried Kentucky

1884-1940.  Indiana Hughes in 1916  It helps that Indiana was slightly more Democrat than other NW states such that Cleveland carried it in 1884 and 1892, but not 1888.

1944-1976.  Illinois  Ford in 1976

1980-2004.  Missouri.   No misses.

6 or 7 misses in 55 elections.  Has any single state done better?

The state containing the mean center of population appears to have been a  better bellwether than any fixed state.

The mean center state has missed 7 elections (if the center had crossed into Ohio by 1856) or 6 (if the center was still in western Virginia in 1856).

No state east of the Mississippi has missed 7 or fewer elections.  There are 11 western states (plus the District of Columbia) that have missed 7 or fewer elections, but they have participated in fewer elections:

California (first election 1852, 7 misses in 39 tries, 82% right, 3 for center).   Since California became a state, the mean center state has only missed 3 times, 1880 (KY for Hancock), 1916 (IN for Hughes), and 1976 (IL for Ford).

Nevada (1864, 7/36, 81%, 3 for center).

Montana (1892, 6/29, 83%, 2)

Wyoming (1892, 6/29, 83%, 2)

Idaho (1892, 7/29, 76%, 2)

Utah (1896, 6/28, 79%, 2)

Oklahoma (1908, 5/25, 80%, 2)

New Mexico (1912, 2/24, 92%, 2)

New Mexico is the only state to have a better percentage than the center state, and has matched its performance since statehood.

Arizona (1912, 4/24, 83%, 2)

Alaska (1960, 4/12, 67%, 1)

Hawaii (1960, 5/12, 58%, 1)

District of Columbia (1964, 7/11, 36%, 1)