Alberta Progressive Conservative Leadership Election - March 18, 2017

[Njall]

Given that Kenney seems poised to enter the race today, I figured that I should go ahead and give this leadership race its own thread.

Here's some very quick background info:

• May 2015: The PCs lose the 2015 Alberta General Election after 12 terms (44 years) in government. Then-leader Jim Prentice resigns his position and seat on election night. The PC caucus subsequently picks Calgary-Hays MLA Ric McIver as interim leader. Immediately after the election, some pundits and commentators begin calling for a movement to "unite-the-right" in Alberta
• The 12 months following the election: The PC Board launches an engagement initiative in order to consult members about the future direction of the party. Meanwhile, the party continues to show a dedicated base in provincial opinion polls following the election, garnering 20-30% of the decided vote
• May 2016: the party holds its first post-election AGM, with just over 1000 attendees.  The delegates overwhelmingly vote in favour of rebuilding the party instead of merging. They also decide to switch their leadership election system to a delegated convention, and to hold a leadership election within the next 12 months
• June 2016: the party decides on a timeline for the leadership election

The leadership election process will officially begin on October 1, concurrent with the party board meeting in Lethbridge. The actual leadership convention will be held March 17-19, 2017, in Calgary.

The only candidate who is currently confirmed to be running is Jason Kenney, federal Conservative MP for Calgary-Southeast. Although he is a much better ideological fit for the Wildrose Party, he seems to be mounting a bid for the PC leadership in an attempt to unite the right.

Other potential candidates at this point include:

• Sandra Jansen, PC MLA for Calgary-North West
• Richard Starke, PC MLA for Vermilion-Lloydminister
• Thomas Lukaszuk, former PC MLA for Edmonton-Castle Downs and 2014 leadership candidate
• Michael Oshry, Edmonton City Councillor for Ward 5 (southwest Edmonton)
• Doug Griffiths, former PC MLA for Battle River-Wainwright and 2011 leadership candidate

It's worth noting that none of the five above potential candidates would be in favour of uniting with the Wildrose Party.

[Njall]

The contempory understanding of it amongst PCs is that it represents our party being fiscally conservative and socially progressive.

[Njall]

Okay, Kenney's in.

[Njall]

The contempory understanding of it amongst PCs is that it represents our party being fiscally conservative and socially progressive.

You can kiss that goodbye if the creepy virgin wins.

Worth nothing that Sandra Jansen said that she would leave the party if Kenney won, as there's "nothing progressive about Jason Kenney." I'd likely be pretty quick to follow her, tbh.

[Njall]

The contempory understanding of it amongst PCs is that it represents our party being fiscally conservative and socially progressive.

You can kiss that goodbye if the creepy virgin wins.

Worth nothing that Sandra Jansen said that she would leave the party if Kenney won, as there's "nothing progressive about Jason Kenney." I'd likely be pretty quick to follow her, tbh.

Where would you go, if that came to happen?

Leaning towards the Alberta Party at this point. I'd want a centrist option, and the Liberals still have no momentum. Plus, Greg Clark has essentially been branding himself as a PC who's not in the PC Party (in terms of policy and so on) these days. I wouldn't be surprised if a number of progressive and moderate PCs end up migrating to the Alberta Party if Kenney wins and merges the PCs and WRP.

[Njall]

What is it that you don't like about the NDP again? It's not like you're on the right of the average Albertan.

Haha, I consider myself to be relatively at the centre of the Albertan political spectrum...or at least the urban Albertan political spectrum.

Anyways, it's not that I don't like the NDP. In fact, I don't mind them too much, and would certainly vote for them in a two-way race between them and the Wildrose (or a Kenney-led Conservative Party). With that said, there are some elements of their policies, particularly on the economic side of things, that I find myself disagreeing with. For example, they're increasing the minimum wage in a way that won't effectively help those who truly need assistance, and that could see adverse effects on employment of young/under-skilled individuals. Not that I disagree with poverty reduction, by any means, but I've always favoured models such as a guaranteed annual income/negative income tax over minimum wage hikes, and increasing the minimum wage too much can have undesired effects for some individuals. Their unwillingness to consider implementing an HST to deal with the budgetary shortfall was another disappointment (I know that a sales tax is a political bogeyman here, but it'll need to happen at some point and the NDP refused to ever consider it). While I'm not a debt hawk by any means, I am still concerned with the level of debt that they are planning on taking on over the next few years. Their inaction towards reforming campaign finance on a municipal level has been disappointing. And speaking as a post-secondary student leader, it's been disappointing to see the lack of action towards reversing the funding cuts that we were forced to endure under Redford.

I also wish that they had tried to bring in a provincial-level MMP electoral system, so that prospects of single-party dynasties and FPTP-oriented unite-the-right movements could be removed

[Njall]

While electoral reform would save the NDP from the possibility of returning to obscurity way down the road, it would ultimately help the right wing, as I do not believe a majority of Albertans are centre/ centre-left.

Also, the NDP didn't campaign on electoral reform, so there's that.

I know they didn't campaign on it, but it was still a forlorn pipe dream of mine that they might be able to implement it I feel like it would benefit them in the long run though, not only by saving them from obscurity, but also by likely being able to prevent a single right-wing party from attaining majority government status again, at least for the foreseeable future.

[Njall]

Interesting article in the Calgary Metro listing some of the potential candidates who may enter the race to challenge Kenney. In addition to those that I listed at the top of the page (Jansen, Starke, Lukaszuk, and Oshry), the article mentions:

• Diana McQueen: former PC cabinet minister, former MLA for Drayton Valley-Devon, former Mayor of Drayton Valley
• Stephen Khan: former PC cabinet minister, former MLA for St. Albert
• Harman Kandola: Edmonton lawyer, ran as the 2015 PC candidate in Edmonton-Ellerslie
• Doug Schweitzer: Calgary lawyer, managed Prentice's leadership campaign. Also apparently former Executive Director of the Manitoba PCs

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In other news, Nenshi isn't happy about the Kenney candidacy

EDIT:Current St. Albert MLA Marie Renaud (NDP) challenges Kenney on his current views on abortion

[Njall]

Gerson: Jason Kenney may already be on cusp of uniting Alberta’s right — against him

Interesting article...and one that really reflects how negative the coverage of Kenney has become over the past few days.

[Njall]

It's seems looking at the polls pc needs wildrose more than vise versa, at least as long as notley seems set on sabotaging her own government

More to the point, with the NDP consistently polling below 30%, I fail to see the pressing need for an anti-NDP party merger.

Why the heck do Canadian political parties - federal and provincial - take so frickin' long to elect new leaders?  This timeline is utterly ridiculous.

I would imagine it's so the leadership candidates have an extended timeframe in which to go out and meet as many party members and prospective members as possible. In delegate-based leadership elections like this one, the campaigns also need time to cultivate local organizations in each constituency in order to have a reasonable shot at success.

That said, even though Kenney has already declared, the actual race doesn't kick off until October 1st. The rough timeline is as follows:

• October 1, 2016: Race begins; candidates may begin filing their paperwork
• November 5-6, 2016: PC Policy Conference in Red Deer (will include leadership debate as part of proceedings)
• January 9, 2017: Last day for candidates to file their paperwork
• Throughout early 2017: Leadership debate in Edmonton; leadership town halls in Fort McMurray and Lethbridge; constituency associations begin holding delegate selection meetings
• February 16, 2017: Last day for constituency associations to file their delegate slates for the convention (30 days before voting day)
• March 17-19, 2017: Leadership convention in Calgary (the actual vote will be on the 18th)

[Njall]

It's been pretty quiet over the summer, but that may be ending. The PC Party Board finalized leadership rules over the weekend, including a number of new or modified rules that are seen as being detrimental to Kenney's campaign.

On a (likely) related note, Kenney has apparently called a press conference for tomorrow.

[Njall]

PC MLA Richard Starke (Vermilion-Lloydminster) entered the race today. Also, Donna Kennedy-Glans officially launched her campaign.

[Njall]

The party officially kicked off the race in Lethbridge last night.

[Njall]

Former St. Albert MLA Stephen Khan will join the race this coming week.

[Njall]

With the extremely unfortunate aforementioned withdrawals and with nominations having closed today, the candidate list is as follows:

• Jason Kenney, former Conservative MP for Calgary Midnapore
• Stephen Khan, former PC MLA for St. Albert
• Byron Nelson, lawyer and 2015 PC candidate in Calgary-Bow
• Richard Starke, PC MLA for Vermilion-Lloydminster

At this point, my money's on Starke winning as the consensus non-unite-the-right candidate.

[Njall]

Anyways, doesn't the NDP have a no party switching policy?

Apparently that is a federal NDP policy that was never adopted by the Alberta NDP :-)

Yeah, but it's a policy I support, so this is a bit disappointing. I'm sure the voters in her riding won't be happy.

I sincerely doubt that any voters in suburban Calgary will be re-electing their NDP MLAs, tbh.

Personally, I suspect that Jansen may not even be planning on running for re-election, and that this switch was in-part motivated by a belief that she can be more productive and impactful for the last two-and-a-half years of her term as a government MLA.

[Njall]

Following complaints that the Jason Kenney campaign violated leadership race rules by holding a hospitality suite in the same building as the Edmonton-Ellerslie delegate selection meeting on Nov. 16, the party CRO has thrown out the results of the Edmonton-Ellerslie DSM, and the party board has approved the recommended $5000 fine to be levied against the Kenney campaign. A full ruling by the CRO can be found here.

[Njall]

So does anyone have any knowledge of how the race is shaping up?

All I hear from people here is "Kenney will win a glorious landslide" and "Progressives shall retake the party, no one wants Kenney and he will win 12%"

Even as someone who's involved in the party but not on a leadership campaign, I don't fully know how it's going. Since Edmonton-Ellerslie was overturned, 3 of the 87 CAs have held their delegate selection meetings, and the limited rumours on Twitter (albeit mostly from pro-Kenney accounts) seem to have him far ahead (if I recall correctly, the claim is that he has 35 of the 45 delegates that have been elected so far). However, friends who are involved with the other campaigns are claiming that the reported Kenney numbers are being inflated.

There are a few other factors that should be considered here. First, Kenney had a big head-start in organizational ground game, and this as well as his strong-arming tactics were first put on display at the Red Deer policy conference. I mention this because members need to have been part of the party for at least 14 days in order to stand as delegates and vote in their local delegate selection meetings. Personally, I'm hoping that his behaviour during and immediately after the policy conference spurred the other campaigns and general anti-Kenney people into action by recruiting more members to support their aims, but anyone who joined in the immediate aftermath of the policy conference wouldn't have been able to vote in the first few DSMs due to when they were scheduled.

Second, the distribution of the ex-officio delegates (I'll probably start calling them superdelegates) must be considered. A number of individuals, including the party Board of Directors, the Presidents of each constituency association, all current and past PC MLAs, and past Presidents of the party, are entitled to attend the convention and vote for leader. It's hard at this point to say how many superdelegates will attend, and further to that, how they will vote. This is especially true for past MLAs; this group could potentially number over 100 (I believe), and the breakdown between pro- and anti-Kenney former MLAs is really hard to predict (I've seen several former MLAs in both camps, in general with Lougheed/Getty and Stelmach/Redford/Prentice-era former MLAs leaning anti-Kenney and Klein-era former MLAs leaning pro-Kenney).

[Njall]

Speaking of superdelegates, yesterday Kenney announced the support of 50 former PC MLAs. According to numbers that I've seen, this represents about 20-25% of the total number of living former PC MLAs, though not all will likely make it to the leadership convention to vote in person. Most of the people on Kenney's list aren't surprising, and a number had previously announced their support individually.

In DSM news, there are conflicting reports on who won the Edmonton-Castle Downs DSM last night. The majority that I've seen, including from former MLA Thomas Lukaszuk, indicate that anti-Kenney delegate won 10 of the 15 spots, but Kenney's claiming he won 11 of the 15...

[Njall]

State of the Race: December 4, 2016

As of now, 14 of the 87 Delegate Selection Meetings have been held across the province, and another 16 will be held before the winter holidays. The campaigns have been putting out conflicting numbers from most of the DSMs and there is no official count from the party because delegates could change their allegiances after being elected. However, I have put together some rough tabulations of the state of the race so far. The following calculations take into account constituency delegates only, and do not include any "superdelegates" (Party Board, Constituency Presidents, current and former MLAs, etc.). Numbers will also be shown in pro-Kenney vs. anti-Kenney (alternately, unity vs. renewal) form, as that is how delegate counts are being presented on social media.

Count based on Kenney Sources (likely Kenney ceiling): Kenney-Anti Kenney
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville: 10-5
Spruce Grove-St. Albert: 11-4
Edmonton-Mill Woods: 14-0
Edmonton-Castle Downs: 11-4
Calgary-Acadia: 15-0
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake: 14-1
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview: 14-1
Little Bow: 11-4
Vermilion-Lloydminster: 0-15
Red Deer-South: 9-6
Edmonton-Manning: 12-1
Calgary-West: 15-0
Edmonton-Rutherford: 12-2
Edmonton-Riverview: 5-10

TOTAL: 157 Kenney, 49 Anti-Kenney



Count based on non-Kenney Sources (likely anti-Kenney ceiling): Kenney-Anti Kenney
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville: 8-7
Spruce Grove-St. Albert: 9-6
Edmonton-Mill Woods: 7-7
Edmonton-Castle Downs: 10-5
Calgary-Acadia: 15-0
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake: 8-7
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview: 12-3
Little Bow: 6-9
Vermilion-Lloydminster: 0-15
Red Deer-South: 9-6
Edmonton-Manning: 10-3
Calgary-West: 13-2
Edmonton-Rutherford: 5-10
Edmonton-Riverview: 5-10

TOTAL: 112 Kenney, 94 Anti-Kenney

[Njall]

Richard Starke has received the endorsement of fellow MLA Wayne Drysdale (Grande Prairie-Wapiti). Rumors have been floating around that Kenney has been threatening not to sign nomination papers of current MLAs and prospective candidates if he wins and they don't back him, so this is a bigger deal than it initially may seem.

[Njall]

Kenney seems confident. Globe claims he's won 2/3 of delegates so far.

How many pc's do you think defect to the ndp if Kenney successfully merges with wildness?

I'm no expert, so Njall or RogueBeaver please correct me if I'm wrong...

If the federal conservative merger is any indicator, one or two prominent people will quit, and a similar amount will sit as independents and not run again.

Of course, the PC's only have eight MLA's now that Jansen has defected, so we could probably make educated guesses for all of them. I assume McIver and the two MLA endorsements Kenney has would stay. What about the rest?

Sorry, I completely missed this post from a while back. Kenney currently has the official support of four of the eight PC MLAs: Mike Ellis, Prab Gill, Richard Gotfried, and Dave Rodney. Interim Leader Ric McIver is, for all intents and purposes, also a Kenney backer. Richard Starke is obviously not a Kenney supporter, and Starke has the endorsement of MLA Wayne Drysdale. The remaining MLA is Rick Fraser, who is said to be a closet Starke supporter, but cannot officially confirm this due to his neutral position on the Leadership Election Committee.

Fraser, Starke, and Drysdale are all potentials for sitting as independents or choosing to go somewhere like the Alberta Party if the PCs merge with the Wildrose, though I doubt that all three of them will end up doing this.

Former leadership candidates Stephen Khan and Donna Kennedy-Glans seem unlikely to stick around in a Kenney-led party. Kennedy-Glans decried her perceived lack of support for centrist policy when she dropped out, and in the last debate when Khan was asked if he would support the eventual winner of the race, his response was that he would if that candidate exhibited "true progressive conservative values," which Kenney does not (at least in his opinion).

I'll also be interested to see what the party's Board members, Constituency Presidents, and former MLAs do. Many of the Board members do not support Kenney, and there are sizable pro- and anti-Kenney factions amongst CA Presidents and former MLAs

[Njall]

Richard Starke has been rolling out the endorsements (or in some cases re-announcing endorsements) from a number of prominent PCs on Twitter over the last two days. Not quite sure why he has chosen to do so this late in the race, but for those interested here's a current list of the Starke-backers  (those who are previous elected officials) that have been announced:

Wayne Drysdale, current MLA for Grande Prairie-Wapiti
Doug Horner, former Deputy Premier and MLA for Spruce Grove-St. Albert (2001-2015)
Jacquie Fenske, former MLA for Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (2012-2015)
Stephen Khan, former leadership candidate and MLA for St. Albert (2012-2015)
Linda Johnson, former MLA for Calgary-Glenmore (2012-2015)
Heather Klimchuk, former MLA for Edmonton-Glenora (2008-2015)
Peter Elzinga, former Deputy Premier and MLA for Sherwood Park (1986-1993). Also Ralph Klein's former Chief of Staff
Iris Evans, former MLA for Sherwood Park (1997-2012)
Jim Horsman, former MLA for Medicine Hat (1975-1993)
Cathy Oleson, former MLA for Sherwood Park (2012-2015)

EDIT (two more came out):
Pearl Calahasen, former MLA for Lesser Slave Lake (1989-2015)
Ray Danyluk, former MLA for Lac la Biche-St. Paul (2001-2012)

[Njall]

When asked about their preferences for leader of a hypothetical united party, Albertans prefer a generic 'someone else' to both Jason Kenney and Brian Jean

[Njall]

Wayne Drysdale, current MLA for Grande Prairie-Wapiti
Doug Horner, former Deputy Premier and MLA for Spruce Grove-St. Albert (2001-2015)
Jacquie Fenske, former MLA for Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (2012-2015)
Stephen Khan, former leadership candidate and MLA for St. Albert (2012-2015)
Linda Johnson, former MLA for Calgary-Glenmore (2012-2015)
Heather Klimchuk, former MLA for Edmonton-Glenora (2008-2015)
Peter Elzinga, former Deputy Premier and MLA for Sherwood Park (1986-1993). Also Ralph Klein's former Chief of Staff
Iris Evans, former MLA for Sherwood Park (1997-2012)
Jim Horsman, former MLA for Medicine Hat (1975-1993)
Cathy Oleson, former MLA for Sherwood Park (2012-2015)
Pearl Calahasen, former MLA for Lesser Slave Lake (1989-2015)
Ray Danyluk, former MLA for Lac la Biche-St. Paul (2001-2012)

In addition to the list above, Starke has also announced the following endorsements leading up to yesterday:

Former MLAs:
Genia Leskiw, Bonnyville-Cold Lake (2008-2015)
Verlyn Olson, Wetaskiwin-Camrose (2008-2015)
Ron Ghitter, Calgary-Buffalo (1971-1979), also a former Senator
Teresa Woo-Paw, Calgary-Northern Hills (2008-2015)
Dave Quest, Strathcona-Sherwood Park (2008-2015)
Bridget Pastoor, Lethbridge-East (2004-2015)
Arno Doerksen, Strathmore-Brooks (2008-2012)
Cal Dallas, Red Deer-South (2008-2015)
Ron Casey, Banff-Cochrane (2012-2015)
Jack Hayden, Drumheller-Stettler (2007-2012)
Thomas Lukaszuk, Edmonton-Castle Downs (2001-2015), also former Deputy Premier
Doug Griffiths, Battle River-Wainwright (2002-2015)
LeRoy Johnson, Wetaskiwin-Camrose (1997-2008)
Bill Purdy, Stony Plain (1971-1986)
Hector Goudreau, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley (2004-2015)
Rob Lougheed, Strathcona (1997-2008)
Mike Allen, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo (2012-2015)
Stephen Mandel, Edmonton-Whitemud (2014-2015), also former Mayor of Edmonton
Clint Dunford, Lethbridge-West (1993-2008)

He's also received the endorsement of Edmonton Councillor Michael Oshry (who was at one point a prospective leadership candidate), and by my count, he has the formal or informal endorsements of 25 Constituency Presidents (versus 7 for Kenney) and 20 members of the Board of Directors (versus 3 for Kenney).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting Starke to win, but I wanted to document his support (especially amongst former MLAs) here as this level of expressly-stated support is generally unusual to see for non-frontrunner candidates.