When was the last time a "lean" or "likely" state went the opposite way?
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  When was the last time a "lean" or "likely" state went the opposite way?
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Author Topic: When was the last time a "lean" or "likely" state went the opposite way?  (Read 3439 times)
twenty42
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« on: July 07, 2016, 10:43:20 PM »

We see a lot of safe/likely/lean/tossup maps during election cycles. The "safe" and "tossup" categories are pretty cut and dry...the "safe" states are the Californias and Vermonts that are written in stone, and the "tossup" states are the Floridas and the Ohios that have a very purple history and are usually razor-thin close on election night.

But every election cycle seems to get infatuated with "lean" and "likely" states as well...those states that the other party "hopes to peel away" or "would love to grab." PA is the perfect example of such a state. So when is the last time a lightly-tinted (not tossup) state was "grabbed" by the other party?

Bear in mind, even though we tend to see 2008 Indiana as the biggest election night upset in our generation, the state was still rated a tossup by most networks in real time.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2016, 01:16:53 AM »

Probably Iowa in 2004. Before that, probably West Virginia in 2000.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2016, 06:16:01 AM »

IIRC a lot of people thought 1980 would be a lot closer than it actually turned out to be, so probably two or three states there. Arkansas is certainly one that comes to mind.
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« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2016, 10:45:43 AM »

Probably Iowa in 2004. Before that, probably West Virginia in 2000.

Was Iowa rated Lean Kerry in 2004? I thought Bush had a slight lead in the polls there.

Anyway, if we're talking about states that were rated lean/likely in July, then Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 are definitely worth mentioning.
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2016, 11:29:56 AM »

IIRC a lot of people thought 1980 would be a lot closer than it actually turned out to be, so probably two or three states there. Arkansas is certainly one that comes to mind.

A lot of them actually. IIRC, I found a copy of Time's map from the week before the election in which Alabama and North Carolina were both Safe Carter and much of the rest of the South was Lean Carter.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2016, 11:31:30 AM »

I thought Iowa had been rated safe for Kerry in 2004.
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Nym90
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« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2016, 11:41:19 AM »

Back in the 80's and 90's, there were a lot fewer state polls than there are today, so it was harder to determine in advance which states were safe, likely, or lean. The 2000 election is when statewide polls really started to proliferate.

This might have something to do with the fact that none of the elections in the 80's or 90's were close enough for the Electoral College math to be worth worrying about.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2016, 01:03:38 PM »

IIRC a lot of people thought 1980 would be a lot closer than it actually turned out to be, so probably two or three states there. Arkansas is certainly one that comes to mind.

A lot of them actually. IIRC, I found a copy of Time's map from the week before the election in which Alabama and North Carolina were both Safe Carter and much of the rest of the South was Lean Carter.

While their margins were off, Reagan's worst region was easily the South, and he barely won most of those states.  I wouldn't be surprised if pundits underestimated the growing suburban vote in the South, which accounted for almost all of Reagan's strength and certainly his margin of victory.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2016, 06:11:31 PM »

It really depends on whose map you're looking at. RCP for example is a Republican biased site still, but they try to be a little more objective now that they get a lot more attention. But back in 2000 they had Dubya winning with like 400+ EVs, so I'd imagine Gore would quite a few "lean/likely Bush" states.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2016, 06:14:27 PM »

Some pollsters left Florida in 2012 because they thought it was safe Romney.
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buritobr
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« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2016, 07:18:47 PM »

Forecasts in 1980 in the eve of the election day

Carter: Minnesota, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, Georgia

Toss up: Hawai, Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Missouri, Louisiana, Vermont, New York, Pensylvania, Delaware, Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama

Reagan: Alaska, California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Mississippi, Ohio, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, Florida
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sg0508
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« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2016, 08:04:41 PM »

IA was a tossup going into EN in 2004.

WI that year could have qualified.  Bush was up the entire summer there into the middle of the fall. At one point, he was polling double digits over Kerry.  But, as usual, the Democrats came home in the end and Bush lost the state, which almost cost him a second term.

The "Backdoor Strategy" had Kerry taken OH was for Bush to win WI and either NM or IA.  As we saw, just NM and IA alone weren't enough.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #12 on: July 08, 2016, 09:34:04 PM »

NE-2 in 2008.
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Breton Racer
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2016, 01:01:48 AM »

Maryland in 1988, everybody thought Dukakis would win the state.
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GMantis
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2016, 05:41:22 AM »

Maryland in 1988, everybody thought Dukakis would win the state.
Was this before the Willie Horton scandal broke?
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AuH2O Republican
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2016, 08:10:46 AM »

Didn't Ohio lean Democrat in 1960? I remember reading somewhere that one of the first questions JFK asked Nixon after the election was how did he win Ohio.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2016, 11:39:14 AM »

Maryland in 1988, everybody thought Dukakis would win the state.

I thought Maryland turned out to be not even close.

I don't remember much about 1980, but I remember reading later that Carter was supposed to win New York. Someone told me Nixon was supposed to win West Virginia in 1960.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2016, 01:04:22 PM »

Isn't Indiana 2008 the obvious answer here?
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2016, 01:08:06 PM »

Isn't Indiana 2008 the obvious answer here?

Pretty sure most news networks had it technically rated as a toss-up, but yeah, basically everyone initially thought McCain would win it in the end.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2016, 01:08:49 PM »

Isn't Indiana 2008 the obvious answer here?

I actually kind of saw it coming.

I remember some polls in 2000 when Gore was +4 nationally, he was +6 in Kentucky. I don't know why he cratered after that.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2016, 03:22:42 PM »

IIRC a lot of people thought 1980 would be a lot closer than it actually turned out to be, so probably two or three states there. Arkansas is certainly one that comes to mind.

Arkansas, Alabama, and Louisiana were all thought to be relatively secure for Carter in 1980.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2016, 03:26:23 PM »

Didn't Ohio lean Democrat in 1960? I remember reading somewhere that one of the first questions JFK asked Nixon after the election was how did he win Ohio.

Wisconsin was also.supppsed to go to Kennedy in 1960.  Texas was thought to be leaning Nixon even with LBJ on the ticket.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2016, 07:21:41 PM »

West Virginia was supposed to be leaning McGovern in 1972, but he got creamed there.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2016, 04:03:11 AM »

This might have something to do with the fact that none of the elections in the 80's or 90's were close enough for the Electoral College math to be worth worrying about.

I doubt it; 1980 was seen as very competitive until the results actually came in; 1988 and 1992 were both competitive for a long time.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2016, 05:04:45 PM »

IIRC a lot of people thought 1980 would be a lot closer than it actually turned out to be, so probably two or three states there. Arkansas is certainly one that comes to mind.

A lot of them actually. IIRC, I found a copy of Time's map from the week before the election in which Alabama and North Carolina were both Safe Carter and much of the rest of the South was Lean Carter.

While their margins were off, Reagan's worst region was easily the South, and he barely won most of those states.  I wouldn't be surprised if pundits underestimated the growing suburban vote in the South, which accounted for almost all of Reagan's strength and certainly his margin of victory.


If you watch coverage of the 1980 election night, the news anchors were STUNNED at Reagan's electoral landslide.  They knew he was going to win but couldn't believe how widespread his victory was.  And the electoral vote margin was amplified because Reagan won 6 southern states by less than 2% (the closest state that year was Massachusetts, which Reagan won by 0.15%, thanks to Anderson).

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