Presidential Ratings and Predictions - California
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  Presidential Ratings and Predictions - California
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Poll
Question: Rate California and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Toss-Up
 
#5
Lean R
 
#6
Likely R
 
#7
Safe R
 
#8
Clinton
 
#9
Trump
 
#10
Other
 
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Total Voters: 161

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Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - California  (Read 3233 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #25 on: July 09, 2016, 04:22:39 PM »

Safe D. Clinton wins the state by 15-20 points. Orange County will be a tossup. Those voters there may not like Obama's handling of the economy, race relations, etc.
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tinman64
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« Reply #26 on: July 09, 2016, 06:04:48 PM »

Safe D.

Clinton 62
Trump 35
Others 3
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TDAS04
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« Reply #27 on: July 09, 2016, 07:16:48 PM »

Safe D.

Clinton 63
Trump 33
Others 4
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #28 on: July 11, 2016, 09:44:51 AM »

Clinton, by a 30% or so margin of victory. She'll win Orange county. Kern county will be the final Republican holdout in SoCal.

I would love to see that, but still think Orange County is a tossup/tilts R county. For her to do this, she's going to have to match or exceed Obama in the Democratic strongholds (Santa Ana, primarily) and keep the Vietnamese (Garden Grove, Westminster) in the Democratic column, as Obama was able to turn both of these cities blue/Atlas red in 2012. Having said that, she's probably going to do better with the whites there, as she was able to carry the county both times in the primaries. The OC is going to flip, soon, whether it's this time remains to be seen.

As for the state as a whole, obviously Safe D.
Clinton 62
Trump 35
Others 3

LOL at the two four trolls who voted safe R.

updated Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #29 on: August 07, 2016, 08:23:16 AM »

Safe D. Trump would have to be up about 60-40 nationwide for California to be vulnerable to Trump.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #30 on: September 01, 2016, 07:04:25 PM »

Safe D, Clinton 63-35
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #31 on: September 01, 2016, 09:02:36 PM »

Ultra-solid titanium D. 64-31 Clinton.
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #32 on: September 02, 2016, 12:27:46 AM »
« Edited: September 02, 2016, 12:30:49 AM by AndyHogan14 »

I am from Orange County and I believe that this might be the year that the "Orange Curtain" falls (at least temporarily). There are a lot of college educated white people here, so HRC's ability to win this county will be dependent on whether or not the polls are are correct in predicting a lead for Clinton in that demographic—if Clinton wins college educated white people, she will win Orange County.

I have spoken to quite a few Republicans here in southern Orange County (the main reason this county is still a GOP stronghold with Santa Ana as safe D and cities like Anaheim trending blue) and almost all of them are very uneasy with Trump and will likely vote for Clinton, Johnson, or not vote at all. Sure, that's just anecdotal evidence, but I know Orange County well and Trump is a horrible fit here...

Also, California is probably the third safest Democratic state/subdivision behind Washington, DC and Hawai'i. HRC will win going away with well over 60% of the vote.
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« Reply #33 on: September 02, 2016, 03:19:44 AM »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 04:38:02 AM by Interlocutor »

With California being a foregone conclusion, what about map predictions?

I got small to medium Dem swings up and down the state with decent shifts in Southern California. Del Norte will be close, but I'm not feeling a solid coast this year. For that matter, I can't see anywhere outside of the rural North that will swing Trump's way:



I can see her getting as high as 64 here, 65 depending on which counties swing further left
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Sbane
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« Reply #34 on: September 02, 2016, 04:45:18 PM »

Del Norte will be tough to flip. A lot of prison union folks in that county (Pelican Bay). That is sort of Trump's base.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #35 on: September 03, 2016, 01:43:34 AM »

The biggest prize is easily "Safe D" !
8-)
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Breton Racer
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« Reply #36 on: September 03, 2016, 07:01:39 AM »

Safe D

Clinton- 58%
Trump- 34%
Other- 8%
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politicallefty
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« Reply #37 on: September 04, 2016, 03:17:28 AM »

Del Norte will be tough to flip. A lot of prison union folks in that county (Pelican Bay). That is sort of Trump's base.

Ah, that's the reason why Del Norte County remains so stubbornly Republican? I mentioned somewhere else that I thought that that would be the last Republican county on the California coast barring something very strange.

I think Hillary will easily win every county Obama won in 2012. I think Orange County will obviously be her biggest pick-up. I'm not sure about Trinity and I don't know why Obama lost it in 2012. If Prop 19 was any measure, I don't Prop 64 is going to help in that part of the state. As for any additional gains, I think Hillary will win Nevada County (another Obama-Romney county) and maybe Butte. Other than that, there aren't any more obvious counties that will flip. Any additions to the margins in California will be in areas that are already Democratic. I think Hillary will get over 70% in Los Angeles County and Trump will suffer the worst defeat ever of a Republican nominee in the Bay Area.

If third parties are low as usual, I think Hillary wins the state 62-33. In any event, I do expect Hillary Clinton to break 60% for the third presidential election in a row.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #38 on: September 04, 2016, 04:45:19 AM »

Del Norte will be tough to flip. A lot of prison union folks in that county (Pelican Bay). That is sort of Trump's base.

Ah, that's the reason why Del Norte County remains so stubbornly Republican? I mentioned somewhere else that I thought that that would be the last Republican county on the California coast barring something very strange.

I think Hillary will easily win every county Obama won in 2012. I think Orange County will obviously be her biggest pick-up. I'm not sure about Trinity and I don't know why Obama lost it in 2012. If Prop 19 was any measure, I don't Prop 64 is going to help in that part of the state. As for any additional gains, I think Hillary will win Nevada County (another Obama-Romney county) and maybe Butte. Other than that, there aren't any more obvious counties that will flip. Any additions to the margins in California will be in areas that are already Democratic. I think Hillary will get over 70% in Los Angeles County and Trump will suffer the worst defeat ever of a Republican nominee in the Bay Area.

If third parties are low as usual, I think Hillary wins the state 62-33. In any event, I do expect Hillary Clinton to break 60% for the third presidential election in a row.

It will be interesting to see if Trump places third in any of the Bay Area counties. SF is a possibility.
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« Reply #39 on: September 04, 2016, 04:46:52 AM »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 05:18:12 AM by Interlocutor »

It will be interesting to see if Trump places third in any of the Bay Area counties. SF is a possibility.

Santa Cruz and Alameda counties are strong possibilities for a Trump third. Humboldt is one that could give Stein a second place finish.

Pretty much any college-centered county is up for grabs.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #40 on: September 04, 2016, 05:09:33 AM »

It will be interesting to see if Trump places third in any of the Bay Area counties. SF is a possibility.

To be perfectly honest, I'm probably over-estimating Trump in California. I don't see any part of the state where he can even reasonably overperform Romney. Trump is one of the worst fits for California I can imagine. My grandma (a voter in the suburban part of CA-06) voted for Hillary in the primary, to my surprise. She's not conservative or anything, but she was never a fan of the Clintons. She was a nonvoter until 2008, when she made a point to vote for Barack Obama and against Prop 8. (I love my grandma. Smiley) But she actually took the time to vote in person for Hillary in the primary because she finds Trump so detestable. I know that's anecdotal, but if Hillary is able to run strong in the Sacramento suburbs, Trump will be lucky to hit even a third of the vote in California. I don't think he'll get above 20% in the Bay Area as a whole.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #41 on: September 04, 2016, 01:32:04 PM »

It will be interesting to see if Trump places third in any of the Bay Area counties. SF is a possibility.

To be perfectly honest, I'm probably over-estimating Trump in California. I don't see any part of the state where he can even reasonably overperform Romney. Trump is one of the worst fits for California I can imagine. My grandma (a voter in the suburban part of CA-06) voted for Hillary in the primary, to my surprise. She's not conservative or anything, but she was never a fan of the Clintons. She was a nonvoter until 2008, when she made a point to vote for Barack Obama and against Prop 8. (I love my grandma. Smiley) But she actually took the time to vote in person for Hillary in the primary because she finds Trump so detestable. I know that's anecdotal, but if Hillary is able to run strong in the Sacramento suburbs, Trump will be lucky to hit even a third of the vote in California. I don't think he'll get above 20% in the Bay Area as a whole.

I could see Trump doing better in places like Lassen and Modoc Counties. Unfortunately for him, "better" would be a total of about 1,000 votes. Romney and McCain each got about 37%. I don't think Trump will break 35%. I think he can break 1/3 though. I'd say something like 34%.

The Sacramento area should be interesting. Yolo will be safe D, but the third party vote should be interesting with all of the college students in Davis. Sac County and the City of Sac will be safe D as well. I'd bet that Elk Grove and Citrus Heights will be as well. Rancho Cordova will probably go for Hillary too. No one cares about Isleton. In terms of incorporated cities, this leaves Folsom.

Folsom is definitely the most conservative city in the county. I did, however, run the numbers for the 2014 gubernatorial race. Jerry Brown did manage to narrowly beat Neel Kashkari in Folsom. The margin was pretty narrow though. I've seen a few Trump signs and stickers, but not that many. There are a fair amount of Asians in Folsom, but not that many blacks or Hispanics. I haven't seen that many Hillary signs/stickers though. There's not that many young people of voting age, so third parties may be a bit lower. There is a decent Mormon population, which could be an interesting demographic. As far as I know, McMullin isn't and won't be on the ballot. It is a pretty rapidly growing city though. In 1990, there were about 30,000 people, in 2000, there were 52,000, and in 2010, there were 72,000 people. That definitely makes things a bit harder to estimate. There's a lot of people that commute from Folsom and into Folsom, so that makes bumper stickers a bit trickier. There is the Prison (of Johnny Cash fame), but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the guards don't live in Folsom itself. Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if neither candidate broke 50%. I would still give Trump a slight edge though.

Ami Bera, the 7th district's congressman, should hang on. Jones has been weakened by a sexual harassment case and it's not a midterm election.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #42 on: September 04, 2016, 01:44:59 PM »

It will be interesting to see if Trump places third in any of the Bay Area counties. SF is a possibility.

Santa Cruz and Alameda counties are strong possibilities for a Trump third. Humboldt is one that could give Stein a second place finish.

Pretty much any college-centered county is up for grabs.

There's a good amount of Republican votes up in Humboldt and Mendocino counties. I think Stein could do well, but 2nd place might be a stretch.

Santa Cruz could definitely be a strong third party county. Alameda as well. Stein could hit 10% in both, especially in Alameda.

Johnson should do well college counties. So, Humboldt, Yolo, and Santa Cruz are the big ones. There's some potential in Butte, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara counties as well.

I'm interested in how the Sierras will vote. There's a lot of working class whites up in them thar hills, but not that many minorities. Trump did well in the primaries, but that won't necessarily predict the general. Bernie did well in the hills too. Not sure if that bodes well for Johnson or not.

Between Stein and Johnson, I think that third parties will break a combined 10%. Johnson will break 5% and beat Stein in most counties.
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« Reply #43 on: September 04, 2016, 03:41:52 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 03:45:02 PM by Interlocutor »

It will be interesting to see if Trump places third in any of the Bay Area counties. SF is a possibility.

Santa Cruz and Alameda counties are strong possibilities for a Trump third. Humboldt is one that could give Stein a second place finish.

Pretty much any college-centered county is up for grabs.

There's a good amount of Republican votes up in Humboldt and Mendocino counties. I think Stein could do well, but 2nd place might be a stretch.


You're probably right. While Stein will get a significant amount of disaffected Bernie voters in Humboldt, her ceiling here is around 15%. There may be a better chance that the combined third parties get more votes than Trump in those two counties
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politicallefty
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« Reply #44 on: September 04, 2016, 05:24:55 PM »

I could see Trump doing better in places like Lassen and Modoc Counties. Unfortunately for him, "better" would be a total of about 1,000 votes. Romney and McCain each got about 37%. I don't think Trump will break 35%. I think he can break 1/3 though. I'd say something like 34%.

The Sacramento area should be interesting. Yolo will be safe D, but the third party vote should be interesting with all of the college students in Davis. Sac County and the City of Sac will be safe D as well. I'd bet that Elk Grove and Citrus Heights will be as well. Rancho Cordova will probably go for Hillary too. No one cares about Isleton. In terms of incorporated cities, this leaves Folsom.

Folsom is definitely the most conservative city in the county. I did, however, run the numbers for the 2014 gubernatorial race. Jerry Brown did manage to narrowly beat Neel Kashkari in Folsom. The margin was pretty narrow though. I've seen a few Trump signs and stickers, but not that many. There are a fair amount of Asians in Folsom, but not that many blacks or Hispanics. I haven't seen that many Hillary signs/stickers though. There's not that many young people of voting age, so third parties may be a bit lower. There is a decent Mormon population, which could be an interesting demographic. As far as I know, McMullin isn't and won't be on the ballot. It is a pretty rapidly growing city though. In 1990, there were about 30,000 people, in 2000, there were 52,000, and in 2010, there were 72,000 people. That definitely makes things a bit harder to estimate. There's a lot of people that commute from Folsom and into Folsom, so that makes bumper stickers a bit trickier. There is the Prison (of Johnny Cash fame), but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the guards don't live in Folsom itself. Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if neither candidate broke 50%. I would still give Trump a slight edge though.

Ami Bera, the 7th district's congressman, should hang on. Jones has been weakened by a sexual harassment case and it's not a midterm election.

True about Lassen and Modoc, but I was thinking more in terms of regions.

I've never really been worried about CA-07. The Sacramento suburbs are trending Democratic at a fast pace. Hillary should easily exceed Obama in Sacramento County. I know Jerry Brown ran very strong in Sacramento County, but I had no idea he actually won Folsom. (Folsom is where the highly educated and generally wealthy whites move to within Sacramento County, unless they move to Roseville or deeper into Placer County like Auburn.)0 I always imagined it voted like Placer County (and I think it usually does). I do think Hillary will overperform in Placer County. They are basically Romney Republicans, not Trump Republicans.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #45 on: October 07, 2016, 09:22:00 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2016, 09:30:32 AM by peterthlee »

Safe D-Solid
Clinton 66-30-4
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #46 on: October 09, 2016, 04:06:53 AM »
« Edited: October 09, 2016, 04:10:39 AM by Interlocutor »

Forget about Orange County. At this rate, I don't even know if Trump will be able to hold onto Kern County.

I should also point out that, according to the Kern Registrar, Republicans currently hold a 112-voter registration edge in Bakersfield. The gap has been quickly evaporating since the first debate and "that Mexican thing"
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