Predict When These Normally Partisan States Become Swing States
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  Predict When These Normally Partisan States Become Swing States
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Author Topic: Predict When These Normally Partisan States Become Swing States  (Read 1355 times)
libertpaulian
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« on: July 09, 2016, 09:59:43 PM »
« edited: July 09, 2016, 10:09:03 PM by libertpaulian »

We already know which states are typically swing states (think your Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, etc.).  There also exists a large swath of states which normally go for one candidate or the other in a given election year.  Even then, however, something's gotta give, and the states' voting habits will begin to change.  (Example: VA and NC were once solidly red and are now purple states.)

Now, onto my question.  I'm going to list some states that are solidly red or blue, or at the very least, go red or blue more often than not.  Do you think these following states will ever become purple?  If so, list them in the order you think they'll start purpling, the year they become competitive, and a short explanation why (this part is optional).  

I'll give my assessment in a post after this one.

Solidly or Normally Republican:

Arizona
TEXAS
Georgia
South Carolina
Indiana
Montana
Mississippi (I only list this due to the large AA population)

Normally or Solidly Democratic:

Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
New Mexico
Oregon
Washington

If you think I've forgotten any states, please say so and include them in your list.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2016, 12:54:50 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2016, 12:59:14 PM by libertpaulian »

If I had to guess:

Solidly or Normally Republican:

Arizona- It will happen either this fall or in 2020.  The demographic shifts are just right.

Georgia- I'm guessing most likely 2020.  Greater Atlanta, plus the college towns and micro cities, may have enough Democratic votes to override the rural and/or religious areas and the conservative suburbs.

Montana- Will fluctuate depending on how strong the LP candidate is there.

TEXAS- 2028.  The Dems will likely have their turnout problem remedied by then, and Greater Houston, Greater Dallas, Greater Austin, etc. will have enough votes to override other places.

South Carolina- 2028 or 2032.  There'll be enough Yankee transplants and significant AA turnout for it to happen.

Indiana- 2032 or 2036.  Greater Indianapolis will become more of a swing region and the suburbs will be less partisan as the demographics start to shift.  And of course, you still have the micro cities and the Chicago suburbs of Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties.  Plus, if there are a lot of Illinois transplants coming in over the next few years due to the fiscal crisis and the violence in Chicago, they might start to change our politics the way Californian transplants have changed Nevada's and Colorado's politics.

Mississippi (I only list this due to the large AA population)- Same year guess as Indiana.  Uptick in the AA population and more of a Democratic or swing trend among white voters.


Normally or Solidly Democratic:

Pennsylvania- Could happen this year or in 2020.  The GOP just needs the right message.

Wisconsin- 2020 perhaps?  They just have to keep building a machine there like they have ever since the Tea Party Wave of 2010.

Michigan- Could happen in 2028 maybe?

Minnesota- 2028 or 2032, so long as they don't adopt Trumpian immigration as a plank, especially as more Hmong and Somali immigrants settle in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area.

Oregon- Sometime in the 2020s, if the GOP becomes more libertarian on social issues.

New Mexico- Sometime in the 2030s if they don't treat Latinos like their vote doesn't count.

Washington- Late 2030s?  Maybe never.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2016, 02:30:15 PM »

A lot of this will depend on what changes each party makes to its platform, whether Republicans become more socially moderate or change on immigration, etc. Assuming not a lot changes...

Arizona - Could be a swing state this year, if Hillary wins by enough. Otherwise, 2020 or 2024.
Texas - Probably not until at least 2032.
Georgia - Same as Arizona, with less of a chance of it being competitive this year.
South Carolina - Hmmm, maybe some time in the 2030s, if at all. SC hasn't seen the population changes VA/NC/GA have to the same degree.
Indiana - Not really sure if this state is trending Democratic at all. I'm guessing it'll remain a state that leans Republican, and only goes Democratic under very favorable circumstances for Dems.
Montana - Unless the Dems start becoming more Libertarian, or there's a significant change in population patters, I think MT will stay the way it is.
Mississippi - Unless the black population explodes, never.

Normally or Solidly Democratic:

Pennsylvania - Already fairly competitive, and will probably remain competitive for the foreseeable future.
Michigan - If white voters trend even more Republican, and Republicans do better among minorities, maybe 2024.
Wisconsin - Same as Michigan.
Minnesota - Unless Republicans moderate, not any time soon.
New Mexico - This one's heading the other way. Barring a major change in the GOP, never.
Oregon - See New Mexico.
Washington - See Oregon.
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OneJ
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2016, 02:58:29 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2016, 03:02:25 PM by OneJ_ »

Well the White population is also declining here in Mississippi. Unlike a couple of states like Alabama and Louisiana where there are also large African American populations that are growing, Mississippi is one of the southern states that actually is trending democratic (going the opposite direction of Alabama and Louisiana), so there is more than just demographic shifts happening in the state. I expect Mississippi to turn purple by 2028 though.

Many people overlook this state because there are supposedly just rednecks here, but whether you are ready for it or not, Mississippi will turn blue, especially if the White population continues to decrease and a slow, but slight trend of Whites vote democrat in the presidential election.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2016, 03:09:59 PM »

Well the White population is also declining here in Mississippi. Unlike a couple of states like Alabama and Louisiana where there are also large African American populations that are growing, Mississippi is one of the southern states that actually is trending democratic (going the opposite direction of Alabama and Louisiana), so there is more than just demographic shifts happening in the state. I expect Mississippi to turn purple by 2028 though.

Many people overlook this state because there are supposedly just rednecks here, but whether you are ready for it or not, Mississippi will turn blue, especially if the White population continues to decrease and a slow, but slight trend of Whites vote democrat in the presidential election.
I noticed in 2008 and 2012 that MS voted less Republican than its neighbors.  Of course, that's likely partially due to the large AA population there, but it was still an interesting tidbit of note.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2016, 03:23:09 PM »

The thing about Mississippi is that it's extremely inelastic. Even in a Democratic wave, it will probably only end up a few points more Democratic than it was in 2012.
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OneJ
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2016, 04:08:10 PM »

Well the White population is also declining here in Mississippi. Unlike a couple of states like Alabama and Louisiana where there are also large African American populations that are growing, Mississippi is one of the southern states that actually is trending democratic (going the opposite direction of Alabama and Louisiana), so there is more than just demographic shifts happening in the state. I expect Mississippi to turn purple by 2028 though.

Many people overlook this state because there are supposedly just rednecks here, but whether you are ready for it or not, Mississippi will turn blue, especially if the White population continues to decrease and a slow, but slight trend of Whites vote democrat in the presidential election.
I noticed in 2008 and 2012 that MS voted less Republican than its neighbors.  Of course, that's likely partially due to the large AA population there, but it was still an interesting tidbit of note.


I think its interesting as well. In fact, this state was actually trending Democratic since 1992 as opposed to states like Tennessee and Arkansas who did the exact opposite according to an article of fivethirtyeight titled "Why Pennsylvania Could Decide the 2016 Election. I encourage you to read the article and look at the map. Very intriguing indeed.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2016, 05:55:28 PM »

Well the White population is also declining here in Mississippi. Unlike a couple of states like Alabama and Louisiana where there are also large African American populations that are growing, Mississippi is one of the southern states that actually is trending democratic (going the opposite direction of Alabama and Louisiana), so there is more than just demographic shifts happening in the state. I expect Mississippi to turn purple by 2028 though.

Many people overlook this state because there are supposedly just rednecks here, but whether you are ready for it or not, Mississippi will turn blue, especially if the White population continues to decrease and a slow, but slight trend of Whites vote democrat in the presidential election.
I noticed in 2008 and 2012 that MS voted less Republican than its neighbors.  Of course, that's likely partially due to the large AA population there, but it was still an interesting tidbit of note.


I think its interesting as well. In fact, this state was actually trending Democratic since 1992 as opposed to states like Tennessee and Arkansas who did the exact opposite according to an article of fivethirtyeight titled "Why Pennsylvania Could Decide the 2016 Election. I encourage you to read the article and look at the map. Very intriguing indeed.
I think the "Sunbelt" factor has quite a bit to do with it (Mississippi is along the Gulf Coast). 
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2016, 10:52:32 PM »

Arizona: November.
Texas: Sometime in the 2030s.
Georgia: 2020 or 2024.
South Carolina: 2024 or 2028.
Indiana: Trending R - maybe won't be purple again until the next realignment.
Montana: See Indiana.
Mississippi: Sometime in the 2030s.

Pennsylvania: 2020 or 2024.
Michigan: 2024 or 2028.
Wisconsin: See Michigan.
Minnesota: 2020 or 2024.
New Mexico: Probably not until the next realignment.
Oregon: 2030s at the earliest, maybe not until the next realignment.
Washington: Definitely not until the next realignment. Washington is trending D rapidly.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2016, 11:15:49 PM »

Solidly or Normally Republican:

Arizona: 2020s (Projected 2016 PVI: R+4)
TEXAS: Not under the current political alignment (R+9)
Georgia: Maybe in 2028, but it will remain a Republican-leaning state for a while (R+6)
South Carolina: Not for a long, long time, if ever (R+10)
Indiana: It's trending Republican (R+6)
Montana: The right Democrat could win it in the 2030s (R+6)
Mississippi (I only list this due to the large AA population): Really depends on white vs. black population growth, but not before the 2030s (R+7)

Normally or Solidly Democratic:

Pennsylvania: Already is a swing state (R+1)
Michigan: Maybe a Trump reelection in 2020 (D+2)
Wisconsin: Already is a swing state (D+1)
Minnesota: The next comfortable GOP win will include MN, and it will stay red from there (D+3)
New Mexico: It's trending Democrat (D+6)
Oregon: It will be a long time, barring a landslide (D+5)
Washington: Not under the current alignment (D+7)
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2016, 02:22:46 PM »

Solidly or Normally Republican:

Arizona - 2020
Texas - 2028
Georgia - 2024
South Carolina - 2032
Indiana - 2020/2024
Montana - 2028
Mississippi - 2036 or later, alongside Alabama

Solidly or Normally Democratic:

Pennsylvania - 2020
Michigan - 2020
Wisconsin - 2020
Minnesota - 2020
New Mexico - 2028
Oregon - 2032
Washington - 2036
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2016, 06:26:29 PM »

Solidly or Normally Republican:

Arizona - 2020
Texas - 2028
Georgia - 2024
South Carolina - 2032
Indiana - 2020/2024
Montana - 2028
Mississippi - 2036 or later, alongside Alabama

Solidly or Normally Democratic:

Pennsylvania - 2020
Michigan - 2020
Wisconsin - 2020
Minnesota - 2020
New Mexico - 2028
Oregon - 2032
Washington - 2036
Pretty interesting you make Indiana a swing state so early.  Got any reasoning as to why?  Enough demographic change by then?
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