IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in.

[Heisenberg]

Republicans are considering doing the same thing with Pence, so fair is fair.

No, it's not the same thing. Pence may get picked as Trump's running mate, meaning he has to be off the ballot for governor, meaning someone else has to replace him.

^^^

Hill dropped out, meaning he has to be off the ballot for Senator, meaning someone else has to replace him

Well, let's not pretend like Hill just dropped out all by himself. There is 100% chance that he was anywhere from nudged to pushed out.

That's probably true, I'm sure Bayh lobbied/bullied Hill out of the race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Republicans are considering doing the same thing with Pence, so fair is fair.

No, it's not the same thing. Pence may get picked as Trump's running mate, meaning he has to be off the ballot for governor, meaning someone else has to replace him.

^^^

Hill dropped out, meaning he has to be off the ballot for Senator, meaning someone else has to replace him

Well, let's not pretend like Hill just dropped out all by himself. There is 100% chance that he was anywhere from nudged to pushed out.

Or he got offered something in exchange, just like Pence

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

@ butthurt Republicans: Of course this bullsh**t, welcome to politics.  Not that your party would ever do something like this if given half a chance

Anyway, I'll gladly suffer Bayh if it means a Democratic Senate majority.

So you have no problem supporting this loser but you won't vote for Hillary because "the party needs to nominate someone who earns my vote?"

Don't get me wrong, I'd support him too for the same reason as much as he sucks, but I can't think in a single way in which he's better than Hillary.

Relevant:

Many times, being an adult means voting for the lesser of two crappy options.

[swf541]

Didnt see it posted yet, apparently dem internals have Bayh up double digits

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/evan-bayh-senate-indiana-225392

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Still rating this as Likely/Lean Republican until we get solid, consistent polling indicating that Bayh is competitive.

Sure, he's never got less than 60% and has a $10 million war chest but it sure as hell ain't 2004 anymore.  There's been heavy Republican trends in rural Indiana during the meantime and Bayh still has votes for Obamacare and TARP that can be used against him.  Todd Young will tar-and-feather him as a Indiana boy who got high on D.C., chose to become a lobbyist and now wants voters to push him back through the revolving door; it'll be a disaster. 

Reminds me of Bob Kerrey in 2012.  Oh, and Landrieu's name didn't save her in 2014.  Neither did Pryor's.   

Although, to be fair, Indiana has a track record of recently voting Democrat (2008, for example). It's certainly not a sure thing, but I don't think it's in the same category as Nebraska/Louisiana/Arkansas.

[swf541]

Hmm, well this is really good news for the Dems, putting this at lean d for now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@ butthurt Republicans: Of course this bullsh**t, welcome to politics.  Not that your party would ever do something like this if given half a chance

Anyway, I'll gladly suffer Bayh if it means a Democratic Senate majority.

So you have no problem supporting this loser but you won't vote for Hillary because "the party needs to nominate someone who earns my vote?"

Don't get me wrong, I'd support him too for the same reason as much as he sucks, but I can't think in a single way in which he's better than Hillary.

Relevant:

Many times, being an adult means voting for the lesser of two crappy options.

I want him to to win, but I wouldn't vote for him, so there's nothing inconsistent about that.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Won't comment on EBayh the man or EBayh the statesman, but this is an EXTREMELY shrewd move on Schumer's, the INDems, and EBayh the politician's part.

Baron Hill deserves a medal, as all good soldiers do, but there was no way in Hell he was going to win, so stepping aside makes sense.  

As for those angry over the alleged violation of the democratic process involved: it's not as if Indiana Democrats had a real choice in Baron Hill. He was unopposed in the senate primary. If Baron Hill won a primary with real turnout and a real choice everyone should be mad about this. But as it stands the proverbial party selected ham sandwich has been replaced by a party selected real contender.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

@ butthurt Republicans: Of course this bullsh**t, welcome to politics.  Not that your party would ever do something like this if given half a chance

Anyway, I'll gladly suffer Bayh if it means a Democratic Senate majority.

So you have no problem supporting this loser but you won't vote for Hillary because "the party needs to nominate someone who earns my vote?"

Don't get me wrong, I'd support him too for the same reason as much as he sucks, but I can't think in a single way in which he's better than Hillary.

Relevant:

Many times, being an adult means voting for the lesser of two crappy options.

I want him to to win, but I wouldn't vote for him, so there's nothing inconsistent about that.

I honestly can not comprehend why someone would not vote for for whom they want to win. My brain just simply can not process the logic.

[Mr. Smith]

Wow! Great news! I would place it as Tossup or maybe slight lean R (though lean D if Stutzman had won the primary).

Will anyone else find this ironic if he wins, considering he's succeeding his predecessuccessor Dan Coats who literally did the exact same trick.


And if he loses, anyone else reminded of Nebraska 2012?

I was about to post something like that. Bayh would replace Coats who replaced Bayh who replaced Coats.

I was concerned about a Kerrey/Lingle situation but others have said that's not analogous. Also, Bayh is more moderate than Kerrey, and Indiana is closer to being a swing state than Nebraska or Hawaii.

Um, Lingle was the Maverick Republican Hawaiian Governor who ultimately still lost to Mazie Hirono.

It's Deb Fischer you're thinking of, and considering how Mourdock happened in the first place and only lost by 6 points...even if Indiana is swingier than Nebraska, this just isn't something to take for granted.

Things are more polarized than they were even in 2012, and Indiana will go strong for trump.

[user12345]

Indiana having two Democratic senators would be interesting to say the least.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@ butthurt Republicans: Of course this bullsh**t, welcome to politics.  Not that your party would ever do something like this if given half a chance

Anyway, I'll gladly suffer Bayh if it means a Democratic Senate majority.

So you have no problem supporting this loser but you won't vote for Hillary because "the party needs to nominate someone who earns my vote?"

Don't get me wrong, I'd support him too for the same reason as much as he sucks, but I can't think in a single way in which he's better than Hillary.

Relevant:

Many times, being an adult means voting for the lesser of two crappy options.

I want him to to win, but I wouldn't vote for him, so there's nothing inconsistent about that.

I honestly can not comprehend why someone would not vote for for whom they want to win. My brain just simply can not process the logic.

I only want him to win because of how bad his opponent is.  However, that doesn't mean Bayh is a candidate worth voting for or has earned my vote.

[IceSpear]

Didnt see it posted yet, apparently dem internals have Bayh up double digits

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/evan-bayh-senate-indiana-225392

Again guys...this is Evan Bayh. He's not going to jump into a lean R/likely R race for funsies. The Republicans underestimating him are in for a rude awakening.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Indiana having two Democratic senators would be interesting to say the least.

Even if it works, it's not going to be the case for long.

Donnelly =

He can put up a good fight, but he can't win.

[Miles]

^ Or another example:

[syntaxerror]

Donnelly has high approvals coming out the IN, and you never know, the GOP may pull a Colorado.

[heatcharger]

Still rating this as Likely/Lean Republican until we get solid, consistent polling indicating that Bayh is competitive.

Sure, he's never got less than 60% and has a $10 million war chest but it sure as hell ain't 2004 anymore.  There's been heavy Republican trends in rural Indiana during the meantime and Bayh still has votes for Obamacare and TARP that can be used against him.  Todd Young will tar-and-feather him as a Indiana boy who got high on D.C., chose to become a lobbyist and now wants voters to push him back through the revolving door; it'll be a disaster. 

Reminds me of Bob Kerrey in 2012.  Oh, and Landrieu's name didn't save her in 2014.  Neither did Pryor's.   

Another parallel I just thought of is Tommy Thompson in 2012.

I have no idea about Kerrey, but Landrieu was an incumbent and was never particularly popular in Louisiana. Bayh is quite popular on the other hand.

The whole lobbying thing is personally worrying to me, but to Indiana voters, it didn't seem to matter when they elected Dan Coats in 2010.

[swf541]

Didnt see it posted yet, apparently dem internals have Bayh up double digits

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/evan-bayh-senate-indiana-225392

Again guys...this is Evan Bayh. He's not going to jump into a lean R/likely R race for funsies. The Republicans underestimating him are in for a rude awakening.

Completely agreed he is extremely cautious electorally

[Miles]

I have no idea about Kerrey, but Landrieu was an incumbent and was never particularly popular in Louisiana. Bayh is quite popular on the other hand.

She was popular until the 2014 cycle kicked into gear and the outside groups flooded the state with ads against her.

[publicunofficial]

Forum hacks are acting like Indiana is a dark red state that Democrats do terrible in, but the state party is still strong and even in the races they lose they usually get 45-49% of the vote.

[Gass3268]

Didnt see it posted yet, apparently dem internals have Bayh up double digits

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/evan-bayh-senate-indiana-225392

Wow, if true this becomes gain #3 (along with Illinois and Wisconsin, naturally). Only would need one of Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. Not an automatic, but doable.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Didnt see it posted yet, apparently dem internals have Bayh up double digits

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/evan-bayh-senate-indiana-225392

Wow, if true this becomes gain #3 (along with Illinois and Wisconsin, naturally). Only would need one of Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. Not an automatic, but doable.

I'd rank our possible pick ups as:

1. IL
2. WI
3. IN
4. NH
5. OH
6. AZ
7. FL
_________________________
8. PA (Toomey was beatable, but not with McGintey)
9. NC (best case, the Pubs have to waste some money in September/October)

[IceSpear]

Didnt see it posted yet, apparently dem internals have Bayh up double digits

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/evan-bayh-senate-indiana-225392

Wow, if true this becomes gain #3 (along with Illinois and Wisconsin, naturally). Only would need one of Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. Not an automatic, but doable.

I'd rank our possible pick ups as:

1. IL
2. WI
3. IN
4. NH
5. OH
6. AZ
7. FL
_________________________
8. PA (Toomey was beatable, but not with McGintey)
9. NC (best case, the Pubs have to waste some money in September/October)

Toomey would lose in a wave. He can survive a small to moderate Clinton win, but not a large one.

[emcee0]

So I guess that Vilsack has to jump in in Iowa now...
If he wins then that is even more proof that Donnelly is cooked in 2018.

[Mr.Phips]

Didnt see it posted yet, apparently dem internals have Bayh up double digits

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/evan-bayh-senate-indiana-225392

Wow, if true this becomes gain #3 (along with Illinois and Wisconsin, naturally). Only would need one of Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. Not an automatic, but doable.

I'd rank our possible pick ups as:

1. IL
2. WI
3. IN
4. NH
5. OH
6. AZ
7. FL
_________________________
8. PA (Toomey was beatable, but not with McGintey)
9. NC (best case, the Pubs have to waste some money in September/October)

Toomey would lose in a wave. He can survive a small to moderate Clinton win, but not a large one.

If Hillary wins PA by 54%-44%(like Obama in 2008), I can't see Toomey winning.