IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in.

[Brittain33]

Where the hell did Bayh even get all that money before suddenly announcing a campaign?

It's from his 2010 campaign that he abandoned and never gave to anyone else in 2010, 2012, or 2014.

It seemed like a jerk move when he retired, but given that he would have lost in 2010 anyway it sure looks like the right decision.

Is Bayh purposely trolling the Democrats or something?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

@ butthurt Republicans: Of course this bullsh**t, welcome to politics.  Not that your party would ever do something like this if given half a chance

Anyway, I'll gladly suffer Bayh if it means a Democratic Senate majority.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Why is Hill withdrawing?  Did the state Democratic party force him out so they could get their "preferred" candidate?

[pppolitics]

Bayh is an FF

[Horsemask]

Wow!

[Mehmentum]

Why is Hill withdrawing?  Did the state Democratic party force him out so they could get their "preferred" candidate?

Perhaps he knew he didn't have a real shot at winning, and decided to do what was best for his party. 

Or, if we're assuming all politicians act selfishly, his political future is probably better as 'the guy who stepped aside for Bayh' than as 'the guy who blocked Bayh and lost the race'.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

This is great news for Democrats, obviously. Looking at Hill's fundraising and polling numbers, it's obvious he was headed for a landslide loss. He was clearly a sacrificial lamb, and he knew it. (Of course, that's why Republicans are so sad to see him go.)

Sure, Bayh is behaving very opportunistically, but that's what politicians do. Even the third parties are doing it this year - look at Gary Johnson, who is actively comparing himself to a self-described socialist in an effort to expand his party's appeal.

[IceSpear]

WTF?! This completely came out of nowhere! I can't wait to see the story behind this...

But guys, this isn't some Bob Kerrey situation. Bayh is still very popular, has a huge war chest, and he almost certainly would not have entered unless private polling showed him either ahead or very competitive. This is a major coup for Dems. In fact, if Stutzman was the nominee I'd actually call this likely D, but since it's Young I'll say toss up for now.

Also, to henster, good job posting about something other than Hillary!

[Maxwell]

Great news!

Though I am of the thought that Bayh was a better Governor than he was a Senator. While Young is a solid recruit on the Republican side, I truly think this is a toss-up.

[IceSpear]

Wait... Didn't the primary already happen? How is this possible?

What the actual  is happening.

Look a few posts above, I asked the same question. Basically, until July 15, Indiana legally allows parties to change their nominee.

Damn that's such garbage. So someone who wasn't even voted on by his party just gets to be the nominee two months after they chose a nominee. So corrupt, filing deadlines and primaries don't matter I guess. Screw democracy, I'll just use my power and money to lobby the nominee out so I can be the nominee and the other guy just exits like a submissive weakling, all because he couldn't decide on time or because he wanted a convenient time. We might as well be returning to smoke filled rooms.

F*** Indiana if they elect this man.

Republicans are considering doing the same thing with Pence, so fair is fair.

[publicunofficial]

Baron Hill is an FF for doing this. Hope he gets a nice appointment in a Hillary administration.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Such an epic HP. He actually went further to the right in his last 2 years in the Senate after Obama won his state and he was preparing for his lobbyist career.

[nclib]

Wow! Great news! I would place it as Tossup or maybe slight lean R (though lean D if Stutzman had won the primary).

Will anyone else find this ironic if he wins, considering he's succeeding his predecessuccessor Dan Coats who literally did the exact same trick.


And if he loses, anyone else reminded of Nebraska 2012?

I was about to post something like that. Bayh would replace Coats who replaced Bayh who replaced Coats.

I was concerned about a Kerrey/Lingle situation but others have said that's not analogous. Also, Bayh is more moderate than Kerrey, and Indiana is closer to being a swing state than Nebraska or Hawaii.

[Heisenberg]

Republicans are considering doing the same thing with Pence, so fair is fair.

No, it's not the same thing. Pence may get picked as Trump's running mate, meaning he has to be off the ballot for governor, meaning someone else has to replace him.

[Anna Komnene]

If this makes a Senate majority more likely then I'll bite the bullet, but if he's gonna return to his old ways then just count him as a Republican.

His voting record can't be worse than Young's (or any other IN Republican), from the perspective of a Democratic/liberal voter. If he votes party line a decent bit, which is likely, then I don't see the issue here. He will support Democratic policies. I'll tell you what though, he will support more liberal policies than virtually all other Republicans will. That should be enough right now. Democrats need all the support they can get to weather the possible great storm of 2018.

I agree with Virginia.  Even though he'll likely side with republicans on some hot button issues, the vast majority of what the Senate actually does are minor bills that are mostly voted along party lines.  On those bills, he will probably support Dems over 90% of the time, just like other people like Jon Tester and Heidi Heitkamp.  And of course it helps for trying to get and maintain a majority.

I don't like how he's doing this, but it's not like Indiana is the only state where voters don't get to decide on their nominees.  We didn't even have a senate primary in NY for either party.

[ElectionsGuy]

Republicans are considering doing the same thing with Pence, so fair is fair.

No, it's not the same thing. Pence may get picked as Trump's running mate, meaning he has to be off the ballot for governor, meaning someone else has to replace him.

^^^

[Pandaguineapig]

Lean r at this point people often overestimate names from the past

[IceSpear]

Republicans are considering doing the same thing with Pence, so fair is fair.

No, it's not the same thing. Pence may get picked as Trump's running mate, meaning he has to be off the ballot for governor, meaning someone else has to replace him.

^^^

I don't see how that changes the principle of it. Indiana selected Mike Pence to be the Republican nominee, and he will be ditching the post to further his own ambitions rather than face a tough re-election fight, and he will be replaced by someone nobody voted for.

[IceSpear]

Lean r at this point people often overestimate names from the past

This assumes Bayh was flying blind going into this. That strikes me as extraordinarily unlikely, considering this is Evan Bayh we're talking about.

[Kingpoleon]

Great news! I'd really like to see Kirk and Bayh in Congress together, however unlikely that is.

[syntaxerror]

Delighted about this.

Bayh messed up the Dems in 2010; but in hindsight there is no difference between 51 and 52 majority; especially since Bayh was one of the more moderate senators.

But it'll make a big difference here. Makes a D majority much more possible; and that means Schumer will have control over the Chamber.

Has a big money advantage, massive name recognition + popularity. The lobbying stuff will not hurt him since Young has a similar background (so did Coats). Also serves a flashback to time when congress was more functional.

Tilt D for me. Which is a massive swing from Likely R if it was Hill. Do not doubt that Hill will be rewarded handsomely for this; be it DNC or Clinton Admin.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Republicans are considering doing the same thing with Pence, so fair is fair.

No, it's not the same thing. Pence may get picked as Trump's running mate, meaning he has to be off the ballot for governor, meaning someone else has to replace him.

^^^

Hill dropped out, meaning he has to be off the ballot for Senator, meaning someone else has to replace him

[Del Tachi]

Still rating this as Likely/Lean Republican until we get solid, consistent polling indicating that Bayh is competitive.

Sure, he's never got less than 60% and has a $10 million war chest but it sure as hell ain't 2004 anymore.  There's been heavy Republican trends in rural Indiana during the meantime and Bayh still has votes for Obamacare and TARP that can be used against him.  Todd Young will tar-and-feather him as a Indiana boy who got high on D.C., chose to become a lobbyist and now wants voters to push him back through the revolving door; it'll be a disaster. 

Reminds me of Bob Kerrey in 2012.  Oh, and Landrieu's name didn't save her in 2014.  Neither did Pryor's.   

[syntaxerror]

Wasn't Young a lobbyist before too?

Dan Coats was a lobbyist between his senate terms but that didn't affect him in '10.

[The Other Castro]

Republicans are considering doing the same thing with Pence, so fair is fair.

No, it's not the same thing. Pence may get picked as Trump's running mate, meaning he has to be off the ballot for governor, meaning someone else has to replace him.

^^^

Hill dropped out, meaning he has to be off the ballot for Senator, meaning someone else has to replace him

Well, let's not pretend like Hill just dropped out all by himself. There is 100% chance that he was anywhere from nudged to pushed out.