IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in.
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  IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in.
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Author Topic: IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in.  (Read 7220 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #125 on: July 12, 2016, 09:54:17 AM »

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #126 on: July 12, 2016, 10:33:24 AM »

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.

Maybe 1996?  That's the last time I can think of when the tossups split basically evenly.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #127 on: July 12, 2016, 10:36:19 AM »

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.

Maybe 1996?  That's the last time I can think of when the tossups split basically evenly.
Also 2002, I think.
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Brewer
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« Reply #128 on: July 12, 2016, 10:39:31 AM »

Can we please quit pretending as if Baron Hill deserves anything more than a pat on the back for dropping out of the race? If he truly cares about the party and its policies, not dropping out would've been an absolute sin.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #129 on: July 12, 2016, 10:41:19 AM »

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.

Maybe 1996?  That's the last time I can think of when the tossups split basically evenly.
Also 2002, I think.

The only real tossup Dems won in 2002 was SD.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #130 on: July 12, 2016, 10:43:16 AM »

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.

Maybe 1996?  That's the last time I can think of when the tossups split basically evenly.
1998?
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Vosem
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« Reply #131 on: July 12, 2016, 10:53:42 AM »

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.

Maybe 1996?  That's the last time I can think of when the tossups split basically evenly.
Also 2002, I think.

Democrats also won LA (indisputably a tossup), NJ (which looked at least strongly R-favored as late in the race as September), AR and IA (maybe not tossup races, but both should've been closer if there was some sort of movement towards the Rs).

2002 is the correct answer, I think.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #132 on: July 12, 2016, 01:00:34 PM »

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.
2010 (CO)
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Miles
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« Reply #133 on: July 12, 2016, 01:16:38 PM »

^ And NV.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #134 on: July 12, 2016, 01:28:12 PM »

^DE (I am not a witch!)
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swf541
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« Reply #135 on: July 12, 2016, 01:49:02 PM »


I dont think that one counts considering how unelectable she was.  GOP primary voters threw that one away
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Brittain33
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« Reply #136 on: July 12, 2016, 03:36:43 PM »

That's a good point about 2010—the Tea Party recruiting failures kept Republicans from sweeping winnable races. But I can't think of any Democrat in 2016 who is a recruitment failure on the scale of Christine O'Donnell or Sharron Angle, or even a Ken Buck. Katie McGinty isn't in their league. Maybe if Alan Grayson won his primary...
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Holmes
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« Reply #137 on: July 12, 2016, 03:51:07 PM »

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.

2012? (NV)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #138 on: July 12, 2016, 03:52:33 PM »


I dont think that one counts considering how unelectable she was.  GOP primary voters threw that one away

I just wanted to remind everyone of Christine O'Donnell. Tongue
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nclib
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« Reply #139 on: July 12, 2016, 06:29:22 PM »

Wow! Great news! I would place it as Tossup or maybe slight lean R (though lean D if Stutzman had won the primary).

Will anyone else find this ironic if he wins, considering he's succeeding his predecessuccessor Dan Coats who literally did the exact same trick.


And if he loses, anyone else reminded of Nebraska 2012?

I was about to post something like that. Bayh would replace Coats who replaced Bayh who replaced Coats.

I was concerned about a Kerrey/Lingle situation but others have said that's not analogous. Also, Bayh is more moderate than Kerrey, and Indiana is closer to being a swing state than Nebraska or Hawaii.

Um, Lingle was the Maverick Republican Hawaiian Governor who ultimately still lost to Mazie Hirono.

It's Deb Fischer you're thinking of, and considering how Mourdock happened in the first place and only lost by 6 points...even if Indiana is swingier than Nebraska, this just isn't something to take for granted.

Things are more polarized than they were even in 2012, and Indiana will go strong for trump.

Um...I know that. I was lumping Kerrey and Lingle together since they both had won elections in their state (dominated by the opposite party) in the past and then lost handily in 2012.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #140 on: July 12, 2016, 06:43:10 PM »

Great news! I'd really like to see Kirk and Bayh in Congress together, however unlikely that is.
Just realized that the two actually did coexist in the Senate for 36 days, since Kirk took office early (his Senate election also had a special election to determine who filled out the last 5 weeks of Obama's term). Smiley
Of course, from 2001-2010, Kirk also served as a Congressman alongside Sen. Bayh.
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syntaxerror
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« Reply #141 on: July 12, 2016, 06:51:20 PM »

Why's Bayh not announcing/filing yet?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #142 on: July 12, 2016, 07:07:24 PM »

Why's Bayh not announcing/filing yet?

Doesn't the party choose?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #143 on: July 14, 2016, 03:02:49 AM »

Bayh officially in!
http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/bayh-vows-to-work-across-lines-to-achieve-practical-progress/article_e621c4e9-64c9-57c8-9c9e-dc21628afc88.html
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #144 on: July 15, 2016, 12:19:05 PM »

To add more drama, there are now some reports that Bayh is interested in running for Governor instead. I imagine Gregg wouldn't want to go quietly - Bayh would be a huge favorite for governor, but Gregg is still in pretty good shape. I doubt this actually happens, though I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #145 on: July 15, 2016, 12:36:26 PM »

To add more drama, there are now some reports that Bayh is interested in running for Governor instead. I imagine Gregg wouldn't want to go quietly - Bayh would be a huge favorite for governor, but Gregg is still in pretty good shape. I doubt this actually happens, though I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.

I thought noon today was the deadline?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #146 on: July 15, 2016, 12:42:24 PM »

I don't buy the rumors about Bayh switching to the Governor's race at all.
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nclib
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« Reply #147 on: July 15, 2016, 01:23:06 PM »

Assuming Trump picks Pence and Bayh stays in the Senate, how does Pence for VP affect Bayh's chances?
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syntaxerror
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« Reply #148 on: July 15, 2016, 02:25:25 PM »

Assuming Trump picks Pence and Bayh stays in the Senate, how does Pence for VP affect Bayh's chances?

Little to no effect.

Pence is not popular but any replacement will lack enough name recognition to get ppl to GOTV.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #149 on: July 17, 2016, 01:42:05 AM »

Indiana to Favored D
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