IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in.

[heatcharger]

Ugh. I thought the one good thing about 2010 was that the Blue Dogs and DINOs got extinguished, Bayh included.

If this makes a Senate majority more likely then I'll bite the bullet, but if he's gonna return to his old ways then just count him as a Republican.

[heatcharger]

This is a guy who has never fallen below 61% in a statewide race with a golden last name and $10 million in the bank. This should be at Leans D now, and that's a conservative estimate.

He got 53% in 1988 in the Governor's election, but yeah visualizing Bayh actually losing an Indiana election is diffucult. Lean D sounds about right.

But why is Bayh so popular in Indiana? He's less socially right-wing as he is economically right-wing. And for Democrats, he's nowhere close to as liberal as his father.

[heatcharger]

Still rating this as Likely/Lean Republican until we get solid, consistent polling indicating that Bayh is competitive.

Sure, he's never got less than 60% and has a $10 million war chest but it sure as hell ain't 2004 anymore.  There's been heavy Republican trends in rural Indiana during the meantime and Bayh still has votes for Obamacare and TARP that can be used against him.  Todd Young will tar-and-feather him as a Indiana boy who got high on D.C., chose to become a lobbyist and now wants voters to push him back through the revolving door; it'll be a disaster. 

Reminds me of Bob Kerrey in 2012.  Oh, and Landrieu's name didn't save her in 2014.  Neither did Pryor's.   

Another parallel I just thought of is Tommy Thompson in 2012.

I have no idea about Kerrey, but Landrieu was an incumbent and was never particularly popular in Louisiana. Bayh is quite popular on the other hand.

The whole lobbying thing is personally worrying to me, but to Indiana voters, it didn't seem to matter when they elected Dan Coats in 2010.

[heatcharger]

Another report: Bayh listed as an inactive voter in Indiana as recent as last week.

Does this even matter? It didn't when Indiana voted Dan Coats in 2010. Also Bayh has never lived in Indiana for long periods of time, even when he was Governor.