IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in.

[Mr.Phips]

Didnt see it posted yet, apparently dem internals have Bayh up double digits

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/evan-bayh-senate-indiana-225392

Wow, if true this becomes gain #3 (along with Illinois and Wisconsin, naturally). Only would need one of Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. Not an automatic, but doable.

I'd rank our possible pick ups as:

1. IL
2. WI
3. IN
4. NH
5. OH
6. AZ
7. FL
_________________________
8. PA (Toomey was beatable, but not with McGintey)
9. NC (best case, the Pubs have to waste some money in September/October)

Toomey would lose in a wave. He can survive a small to moderate Clinton win, but not a large one.

If Hillary wins PA by 54%-44%(like Obama in 2008), I can't see Toomey winning.

[Mr.Phips]

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.

Maybe 1996?  That's the last time I can think of when the tossups split basically evenly.

[Mr.Phips]

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.

Maybe 1996?  That's the last time I can think of when the tossups split basically evenly.

Also 2002, I think.

The only real tossup Dems won in 2002 was SD.