IN-SEN: Bayh reportedly in.

[Vosem]

This is a guy who has never fallen below 61% in a statewide race with a golden last name and $10 million in the bank. This should be at Leans D now, and that's a conservative estimate.

Evan Bayh, in my view, is exactly what the left-wing opposition in America should be like...I'd love to see him return to the Senate, but it would be a real shame if it was at the expense of the Senate majority. I'd still vote Young, obviously, but I'd love to see Bayh back as long as McConnell was still Majority Leader.

[Vosem]

When was the last election that all the toss-up and close Senate races didn't go to the winning party? I see Toomey being like Kay Hagen, someone who is leading or close in the polls until the end but gets pulled under by the wave if Trump collapses.

Maybe 1996?  That's the last time I can think of when the tossups split basically evenly.

Also 2002, I think.

Democrats also won LA (indisputably a tossup), NJ (which looked at least strongly R-favored as late in the race as September), AR and IA (maybe not tossup races, but both should've been closer if there was some sort of movement towards the Rs).

2002 is the correct answer, I think.