NV-Monmouth: Clinton +4

[IceSpear]

Seems about right. Certainly not a terrible result for Trump, given the state of the race.

A week ago I would agree. But after Hillary's terrible week, he should probably be leading here or at least a tie. This was conducted in the thick of the email stuff, which everyone seems to be missing.

[IceSpear]

Also guys, Monmouth is a pretty good pollster, so it's not safe to assume they made the same demographic flubs that most of the other NV pollsters did 4/8 years ago. It's certainly something to watch, but it's not a given.

[pbrower2a]

Nevada could easily end up more D than Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. 

[Ljube]

Nevada could easily end up more D than Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.  

First of all, Pennsylvania does not belong to that group.
And second, no it won't, at least not more D than Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, or Wisconsin.

[Seriously?]

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs.

You realize that Republican candidates in Nevada in 2014 outperformed the polls by a lot, right?

obviously i was talking about presidential cycles. Everyone knows turnout for presidential cycles is completely different. Certainly pollsters should model midterms differently than presidential years. So it is a moot point.

There is no reason to suspect there is some kind if systemic bias among pollsters polling Nevada, particularly because 2014 proved otherwise. Until there is more proof, there is no reason to start unskewing Nevada polls.

There wasn't a competitive statewide race in Nevada in 2014, and in any case pollsters underestimated Republican support nationwide.  It's notable that in a year where this was happening, Hickenlooper slightly outperformed his polling average and Mark Udall matched it.

The 2008/2010/2012 elections have given us enough data points telling us that there is some issue (likely problems polling Latinos) that causes pollsters to underestimate the Democratic vote in Nevada/Colorado in competitive statewide races.

I guess we'll see if the pollsters can prove us wrong, but for now I think it's fair to presume that Dem support in CO/NV is being at least somewhat understated by the polls.

Not really true. I think most of the pollsters that did not adhere to 2012 turnout levels did just fine in 2014. The only race they really missed was the North Carolina one. I know that I nailed just about every race other than NC based on the polling.

I make no assumptions about anything other than this is one data point that reinforces that Nevada is a tossup, with a slight lean D.

[Devils30]

With the white vote where its at for Rs, you're looking at a 8-10% Dem win.