Atlasia Chronicle - Mid-July 2016 Polling

[Clyde1998]

The latest Atlasia Chronicle opinion poll is live.

It covers a few issues:

• Northern Governor/Assembly elections (Northern voters only)
• Labour primary (12 hypothetical candidates)
• Federalist primary (12 hypothetical candidates)
• Leinad vs the 12 hypothetical Labour candidates
• Blair/Truman/DKrol vs Classic Conservative/Lumine/NC Yankee/PiT
• A couple of Labour vs Leinad/Lumine President/Vice President races involving Blair, DKrol and Truman
• Atlasia-UK Common Market (If this is positive again, I will propose a bill in the public submission thread)
• A few issue questions, examples being abortion and retention of nuclear weapons

The poll can be complete here: http://goo.gl/forms/dmxykvuQfMI9gB5u2

If you have any questions that you want me to ask in the future, or any feedback, feel free to mention them in this thread or you can PM me. Hopefully I've covered every suggestion that people previously had in this poll.

[Clyde1998]

Atlasia-UK Common Market (If this is positive again, I will propose a bill in the public submission thread)

I support a Common Market agreement with the UK, but shouldn't the State Department handle this.

Would propose something to the State Department, although I think anyone has been appointed as Secretary of State yet (I could be wrong) - so I think suggesting it to the House/Senate would be the best way to progress at this moment of time. Although if there's not a public submission thread at this point, I will probably ask someone to introduce it to be debated, should there be no Secretary of State.

Great Poll!!! Also there technically is no Public Legislation Thread.

Thank you.

[Clyde1998]

I will not run for President in October (and fully intend to back President Leinad if he seeks another term), but I'm interested to see how a primary would go. Thanks again, Clyde!

Thanks. That's okay - I can remove you in future polls in you wish.

I'd introduce and support a bill on the a Common Market for you, Clyde.

Great poll!

Thank you. I'll hopefully get something written in the next few days and I'll be able to PM you in order to get something introduced quite quickly, so Congress can start debating it.

Nice poll. I for one am honored by speculation of my candidacy. But I won't even consider running until a couple years from now. I'm too much of a lightweight right now. Also, I voted.

Thanks. I produced the list of 'potential candidates' based on who is in Federal office, as well as some regional officials. On top of this, I added a few active Labour members in order to have the same number of Labour 'candidates' as the Federalists. I can remove you from the next poll, as well, if you wish.

[Clyde1998]

yo if you send me the raw data afterwards, i can work out the preferences for you

Hopefully, I'll be able to work out the preferences, as before. Although, if I have any issues I'll certainly send you the data.

That Labor primary preference poll was loooong, but definitely a neat poll! I wonder who's going to lead the Federalist field without Leinad

Yeah. I'm a bit concerned that it's quite long and hard to follow, but hopefully most people are able to get their preferences in correctly. The next poll should have less people (for both parties), as people say that they don't want to be included or they have no plans to run. For the Federalists, I'll work out the race with and without Leinad to see what would happen if he doesn't run.

[Clyde1998]

Thanks for doing this poll Clyde, just out of interest can you see our answers to the questions in the poll for individual users?

I can see the responses for individual users, which is how I'm able to transfer second preference votes, etc. As always, I only look at the username for checking that no-one has responded twice and that region/party info is correct (so the poll will be weighted correctly) - unless someone has asked specifically about their own response. The data gets put into a Google spreadsheet automatically, but I copy this entire spreadsheet across into an Excel spreadsheet to analyse and weight the results - apart from the first two columns of data (the time-stamp and username, as they are irrelevant to the analysis of the data).

I check the username against party and region like this to avoid seeing for actual questions (this is mine; the deepest purple line at the bottom is the start of the second section):

[Clyde1998]

Clyde, I assume you're not counting Labor votes for the Federalist primary and Federalist votes for the Labor primary, yes?  Both fields were mandatory, so I just last-preferenced all the Federalist candidates.

I work out party support and national support for both primaries to see if there's a difference in support within a party than there is nationally for a candidate (which is why both questions were asked to everyone).

If you don't answer the question (so that a first preference can't be identified) that response is purely removed, so it doesn't affect the overall data and is counted as a "Don't Know or Exhausted Ballot" in the final data.

[Clyde1998]

If these numbers hold up, then the highest polling Labour 'candidate' against Leinad will be a shock to everyone - coming within three points of leading that race (at present). That's on the weighted figures, as well. (It's not me, btw )

I think the current result is being caused by the lack of responses from 'other' parties in the South and West, so far. So it could easily change quite quickly with responses from these groups.

[Clyde1998]

Great poll overall but when you're forced to decide who'd get your 6th, 7th, 8th etc. reference in a hypothetical Labor primary it starts getting a bit tiresome.

Thanks. I understand that - the number of potential candidates will drop in the next poll, which will reduce the number of preferences. In an ideal situation, I would have it so it would list all of the candidates and when the respondent chooses an option, it relists the all of the candidates in the same way without the previously selected choices:

Code: (First Preference)

[x] Candidate 1
[ ] Candidate 2
[ ] Candidate 3
[ ] Don't Know

Code: (Second Preference)

[x] Candidate 2
[ ] Candidate 3
[ ] Don't Know

It'll be clearer and easier to "exhaust the ballot" this way. However, the logic behind this would be massive. I might test this format before the next poll to see how easy it would be to use this method.

If these numbers hold up, then the highest polling Labour 'candidate' against Leinad will be a shock to everyone

How could you, Clyde? This is like clickbait but you can't even click on it!

The gap has widened a little bit since I posted that, however that 'candidate' is still the highest scoring Labour member against you.

[Clyde1998]

If these numbers hold up, then the highest polling Labour 'candidate' against Leinad will be a shock to everyone

How could you, Clyde? This is like clickbait but you can't even click on it!

These 12 Labor Candidates that Crush Leinad... FEDERALISTS HATE US! Number 11 WILL SHOCK YOU!

Was Far Behind
NOW NOT AS FAR BEHIND



Local Laborite Discovers One Weird Trick To
BOOST SAGGING POLL NUMBERS!




Federalists Hate Him!




Click Here To Learn The Truth!

[Clyde1998]

When will the poll close/When will the results be up. Sorry for my impatience, just excited.

I'm putting the headline figures up for some of the questions now. I've been a bit busier than expected in the last few days. Sorry about the delay.

[Clyde1998]

Headline Figures (vs Leinad)
Evergreen - 45.4% (+12.0)
DKrol - 43.2% (+5.1)
Flo - 42.2%
Blair - 41.3% (+0.7)
Clyde - 39.7%
Smith - 39.6% (+6.7)
Truman - 39.0% (-3.8)
Peebs - 37.7%
NeverAgain - 37.5% (-0.2)
A.Scott - 36.9%
Darthebear - 35.8% (-1.7)
1184AZ - 32.8%

Common Market Agreement
Yes - 74.4% (-1.5)
No - 25.6% (+1.5)

Issues
NATO Membership - Sup 85.1%; Opp 10.9% - Net +74.1
Increased Regional Powers - Sup 72.2%; Opp 6.9% - Net +65.3
UN Membership - Sup 72.5%; Opp 15.5% - Net +57.0
Continued Possession of WMD - Sup 64.0%; Opp 22.5% - Net +41.5
Increased Immigration - Sup 58.1%; Opp 23.7% - Net +34.4
Compassionate Release - Sup 51.5%; Opp 21.3% - Net +30.2
Free Childcare - Sup 46.0%; Opp 26.0% - Net +19.9
Free Public Healthcare - Sup 40.4%; Opp 29.5% - Net +10.8
Abortion - Sup 44.0%; Opp 43.7% - Net +0.3
Death Penalty - Sup 20.8%; Opp 72.1% - Net -51.3

[Clyde1998]

With the result that has been produced, I'm considering asking respondents to allow me to check their responses to the Presidential voting intention questions (Labour vs Leinad) to check whether the result is caused by an actual change in opinion, or due to changes in people answering the poll (which the weighting system that I use may not be able to deal with effectively). Although, I would need permission from people to look at these specific responses.

According to the ComRes margin of error calculator, http://www.comres.co.uk/our-work/margin-of-error-calculator/, there would be between 10-12% margin of error for my polls. (I can't get to the recommended MoE of 3% without asking 110 people - which is called an election )

[Clyde1998]

No contest here...

Federalist Primary - First Preference (Federalist Voters Only)
54.9% - Leinad
6.7% - JoMCaR
6.3% - Classic Conservative
6.3% - JCL
6.3% - NC Yankee
6.3% - PiT
6.3% - Tmthforu94
0.0% - ClarkKent
0.0% - Goldwater
0.0% - Haslam
0.0% - Pingvin
0.0% - Ted Bessell

I'll produce the figures to show what would happen if Leinad doesn't run.

[Clyde1998]

I'll produce the figures to show what would happen if Leinad doesn't run.

I'm very curious to see both this and Labor results.

Sorry about the delay - the figures are on their way, however the room that my computer is in is currently undergoing a renovation at the moment, which has reduced my access to my computer. It took roughly three hours to calculate the Labour race last time, due to various issues - without that sort of time, I don't think the results will be up before the 8th - unless the work is completed faster than I'm expecting or there's a suitable location for me to use my computer in the meantime.
The strong performance of Evergreen against Leinad appears to be down to the lack of (two) Federalist voters in the North taking part in the poll, and with them splitting the Federalist vote 50-50 between Evergreen and Leinad. My weighting system, which is based on party membership in each region, appears to be massively up-weighting this result to a national level (to be representative of the actual Federalist membership in the North) - which is causing a (unrealistically, perhaps) good performance for Evergreen nationally. Whereas, including more Federalist voters for Leinad in the region produces a more expected result.

[Clyde1998]

While I remember:

Northern Governor
First Round
Flo [Lab] - 47.3%
Kingpoleon [CR*] - 31.1%
RGN [Fed] - 21.6%
*Now United Alternative

Second Round
Kingpoleon [CR] - 52.7%
Flo [Lab] - 47.3%

Northern Assembly
These results are irrelevant now as both Labour candidates are contesting Congress elections
First Round
A.Scott [Lab] - 46.3%
Spark [Fed] - 38.6%
Clyde1998 [Lab] - 10.5%
Dan [Fed] - 4.5%

[Clyde1998]

Federalist Primary (without Leinad)
Federalist Members First Round
22.4% - ClarkKent
13.1% - Goldwater
13.1% - Ted Bessell
13.1% - Tmthforu94
6.7% - JoMCaR
6.3% - Classic Conservative
6.3% - JCL
6.3% - NC Yankee
6.3% - Pingvin
6.3% - PiT
0.0% - Haslam

All Voters First Round
20.2% - Ted Bessell
16.4% - Tmthforu94
14.1% - NC Yankee
14.0% - ClarkKent
7.7% - JoMCaR
7.5% - PiT
6.7% - Goldwater
6.4% - Classic Conservative
2.6% - JCL
2.6% - Pingvin
1.7% - Haslam