More likely: Dem sweep or Trump win
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  More likely: Dem sweep or Trump win		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which is more likely the dems sweep congress and the presidency or trump wins the presidency.
#1
Trump presidency		  
#2
Dems sweep		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 61

Author Topic: More likely: Dem sweep or Trump win  (Read 643 times)
Soonerdem
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« on: July 11, 2016, 10:58:01 PM »
What is more likely, the democrats win the presidency, the house, and the senate or trump wins the presidency? Just what you think is more Likely.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2016, 11:00:31 PM »
I'd put Trump winning at like 25%, and Dems winning the House at like 5%.
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Soonerdem
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2016, 11:03:20 PM »
This is the pollster average right now http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-house-race


I don't know if six points is enough.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2016, 11:04:20 PM »
Trump win is much more likely. Dems won't win the House. They have a chance at the Senate to tie or win though.
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2016, 11:09:47 PM »
Quote from: Spark498 on July 11, 2016, 11:04:20 PM
Trump win is much more likely. Dems won't win the House. They have a chance at the Senate to tie or win though.
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Flake
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2016, 11:10:21 PM »
I'd have Trump winning at 10% and a Dem sweep at 15%
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Soonerdem
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2016, 11:10:31 PM »
In my opinion it depends on how many Johnson voters are really republicans who will vote republican besides trump. In the pollster average the house number isn't much higher then trumps.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2016, 11:41:43 PM »
A Trump win is definitely more likely than Democrats winning the House.
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Badger
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2016, 11:43:38 PM »
About 20% chance for Trump, and about a 10% chance of a Democratic House (I can't picture Dems winning the House but not taking the Senate; theoretically possible yes, but practically near impossible).
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Human
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« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2016, 07:14:51 AM »
Quote from: xingkerui on July 11, 2016, 11:41:43 PM
A Trump win is definitely more likely than Democrats winning the House.
^^

I don't like Donald Trump and I hope the Dems sweep this year, but let's be real. A Donald Trump win is much more likely.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2016, 07:50:03 AM »
Trump winning isn't likely...but it's more likely than Democrats winning the House.
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Wells
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« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2016, 07:58:46 AM »
I think both events are more likely than most people here seem to think.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2016, 08:51:08 AM »
Well, it’s close for the Trumpster. Dems taking the House has a 5% chance, a Trump presidency 10% at best.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2016, 09:26:22 AM »
The poll results are incredibly stupid. Bunch of hacks scared to comment. Applause to all you who can actually admit what you don't want to hear.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2016, 09:29:10 AM »
Trump has a lower ceiling than the Dem congressional ballot does. Neither is likely, but I can see a Dem takeover of the House happening if Trump collapses, while I can't see the Dem collapse necessary for Trump to win the Presidency.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2016, 10:01:12 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 11, 2016, 11:00:31 PM
I'd put Trump winning at like 25%, and Dems winning the House at like 5%.

More like 10% and 2%, but I basically agree.

This is not a favorable map.  207 safe R seats, 218 needed for control:
http://www.270towin.com/2016-house-election/
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