IA-Monmouth: Trump +2

[IceSpear]

Brace yourselves fellow Hillbots. We may be in for a streak of ugly polls for the remainder of July. There's the email stuff which the polls have yet to gauge the full effect of, then he'll have his VP pick, then the RNC.

Beet, please try to stay calm.

[IceSpear]

If Trump is winning Iowa by 2, then he is most likely leading nationally.

Good news for Hillary: more voters think that she "looks out for the little guy" by 8%

They had an NV poll with her up 4 and the 2 national polls are +1 and +3 for her, so it would seem it's tight for now. I expect him to pull ahead after the RNC, provided it is not a complete clusterf**k.

[IceSpear]

I guess this means we can probably move Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina over to Trump if we're really interested in the current state of the race.

Sigh. The first real shift is happening, and it scares the sh-t out of me.

Here we go again...you're getting as bad as Beet, man.

Polls ebb and flow. External events are going to effect the race. This fantasy that Hillary (or any other Democrat for that matter) would just coast and be crushing Trump in a landslide the entire campaign was/is a ridiculous wet dream.

I don't know what you mean by "real shift." Were none of the previous massive shifts in the polling "real?" She was crushing Trump by like 20 points in June 2015. Then it became MoE. Then she crushed him again. Then it became MoE. Then she crushed him again. Now it looks like it's on its way to becoming MoE again.

[IceSpear]

I guess this means we can probably move Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina over to Trump if we're really interested in the current state of the race.

Sigh. The first real shift is happening, and it scares the sh-t out of me.

Teh sky is falling

The sky is always falling on Atlas, one way or another.

It's one data point 4 months before an election. Not quite sure why people are freaking out either way. Yay poll. Nay poll.. It will matter for naught a few months from now.

Yes, I've gotten whiplash from how many times Hillary has went from LBJ 2.0 to Martha Coakley 2.0 on this forum.