NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton tied in OH, +3 in IA, +9 in PA

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/753273220200030208
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-or-even-midwest-battlegrounds-n608651
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/714-ia-oh-pa-trump-and-clinton-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-ahead-in-pennsylvania/

OH
Clinton 39
Trump 39

Clinton 38
Trump 35
Johnson 9
Stein 3

IA
Clinton 42
Trump 39

Clinton 37
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 36

Clinton 43
Trump 35
Johnson 8
Stein 2

July 5-10, MOE +/-3.4%

[Dr. Arch]

The polls are all over the place.

[Gass3268]

I've got a gut feeling that Q is wrong in PA.

[swf541]

I've got a gut feeling that Q is wrong in PA.

As do I

[dspNY]

Quinnipiac basically souped up its polls for Trump. These are more believable. Ironically both Q and NBC have Ohio tied

[KingSweden]

Quinnipiac basically souped up its polls for Trump. These are more believable. Ironically both Q and NBC have Ohio tied

I'd believe Ohio is tied/toss up, absolutely

[Classic Conservative]

The Pennsylvania number seems off. I don't think Trump is only at 35

[Devout Centrist]

The Pennsylvania number seems off. I don't think Trump is only at 35

The third party vote is way overstated

[Know Nothing]

The Pennsylvania number seems off. I don't think Trump is only at 35

Yeah, the last poll to have Trump under 40 in PA was the last NBC/Marist/WSJ poll from April. I don't buy it.

[Lief 🗽]

Marist is a much, much better poll than Quinnipiac.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

At least the Ohio and Iowa polls seem consistent, those two for sure have got to be close now.

[Classic Conservative]

This group also has only a 74% reliability rating by 538 compared to 87% for Q.

[Seriously?]

Marist is a much, much better poll than Quinnipiac.

They are both good pollsters. It's a matter of A- vs. A, which really isn't that different.

OH and IA are in the basic ballpark as other pollsters. There are issues with PA, obviously. One or both polls are outliers.

[Ebsy]

Quinnipiac is an awful pollster that mystifyingly gets a good rating. Marist is much better.

[dspNY]

Marist is a much, much better poll than Quinnipiac.

They are both good pollsters. It's a matter of A- vs. A, which really isn't that different.

OH and IA are in the basic ballpark as other pollsters. There are issues with PA, obviously. One or both polls are outliers.

Considering the history of how PA votes compared to OH and FL it's pretty easy to see that Q is the outlier. PA is almost never more conservative than OH or FL in a general election. Clinton might not have a 9 point lead in PA but she leads with 95% confidence IMO and that poll is much closer to being right

[john cage bubblegum]

This set of polls "feels" more correct than the Q polls, although they do agree on OH.  This Marist PA margin is likely favorable to Clinton.  But if you figure Clinton is up nationally by about 4 points, it's much more believable that PA is 5 points more D than the country as opposed to Q having PA 6 points more R than the nation (9 points more R with 3rd parties included!).  Of course, this is why we have polling aggregates.

And again, these polls have very little meaning less than a week from the conventions.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Marist is a much, much better poll than Quinnipiac.

They are both good pollsters. It's a matter of A- vs. A, which really isn't that different.

OH and IA are in the basic ballpark as other pollsters. There are issues with PA, obviously. One or both polls are outliers.

Considering the history of how PA votes compared to OH and FL it's pretty easy to see that Q is the outlier. PA is almost never more conservative than OH or FL in a general election. Clinton might not have a 9 point lead in PA but she leads with 95% confidence IMO and that poll is much closer to being right

Consider the fact that Trump isn't actually a conservative.

[HillOfANight]

This group also has only a 74% reliability rating by 538 compared to 87% for Q.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-03/the-2016-guide-to-political-predictions-which-matter-and-who-was-most-underestimated

For 2016 up until May, Marist has done 33 polls, 94% accuracy. Quinnipiac has 26, 65% accuracy.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664
https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664

Pennsylvania white voters:
Trump, 40%
Clinton, 40%

Pennsylvania black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 91%

Ohio white voters:
Trump, 43%
Clinton, 33%

Ohio black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 88%

[Eraserhead]

This group also has only a 74% reliability rating by 538 compared to 87% for Q.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-03/the-2016-guide-to-political-predictions-which-matter-and-who-was-most-underestimated

For 2016 up until May, Marist has done 33 polls, 94% accuracy. Quinnipiac has 26, 65% accuracy.

Gravis Marketing is at 92%? Wtf?

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664
https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664

Pennsylvania white voters:
Trump, 40%
Clinton, 40%

Pennsylvania black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 91%

Ohio white voters:
Trump, 43%
Clinton, 33%

Ohio black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 88%

Romney won whites by 16 points in 2012, but Trump is leading by only 10 and this poll is still tied? Methinks the sample might be a bit too white.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664
https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664

Pennsylvania white voters:
Trump, 40%
Clinton, 40%

Pennsylvania black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 91%

Ohio white voters:
Trump, 43%
Clinton, 33%

Ohio black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 88%

But Ann Coulter told me black people love Trump and hate immigrants.

[Tender Branson]

The polling averages on RCP make a lot more sense than some of these outlier polls recently:

No matter if you use a 2-way, 3-way or 4-way race, Hillary is ahead by 4% nationally right now.

On average, she's ahead by 7% in CO, by 3% in PA, by 1% in OH and FL is a tie.

If we look back at 2012, all of this seems fine ...

[Wells]

Quinnipiac vs NBC/WSJ on 538

Grade: A-/A- (tie)
Average Error: 4.7/4.2 (NBC wins)
Accuracy: 87%/74% (Q wins)
NBC is more advanced.
NBC is more predictive.
Bias: R+0.7/D+0.5 (Both are biased, NBC less so.)

Winner: NBC/WSJ.

Quinnipiac vs Marist on 538

Grade: A-/A (Marist wins)
Average Error: 4.7/5.4 (Q wins)
Accuracy: 87%/88% (Marist wins)
Marist is more advanced.
Marist is more predictive.
Bias: R+0.7/R+0.7 (tie)

Winner: Marist.


This plus the above chart clearly shows that one pollster is better than the other.

[IceSpear]

This makes more sense than Quinnipiac, because PA will obviously be more Democratic than OH. But...not 9 points more Democratic.