NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton tied in OH, +3 in IA, +9 in PA (user search)
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  NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton tied in OH, +3 in IA, +9 in PA (search mode)
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton tied in OH, +3 in IA, +9 in PA  (Read 2235 times)
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,459
« on: July 13, 2016, 12:03:38 PM »
« edited: July 14, 2016, 08:59:32 AM by HillOfANight »
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/753273220200030208
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-or-even-midwest-battlegrounds-n608651
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/714-ia-oh-pa-trump-and-clinton-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-ahead-in-pennsylvania/

OH
Clinton 39
Trump 39

Clinton 38
Trump 35
Johnson 9
Stein 3

IA
Clinton 42
Trump 39

Clinton 37
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 36

Clinton 43
Trump 35
Johnson 8
Stein 2

July 5-10, MOE +/-3.4%
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HillOfANight
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,459
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2016, 01:49:27 PM »
Quote from: Classic Conservative on July 13, 2016, 12:34:00 PM
This group also has only a 74% reliability rating by 538 compared to 87% for Q.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-03/the-2016-guide-to-political-predictions-which-matter-and-who-was-most-underestimated

For 2016 up until May, Marist has done 33 polls, 94% accuracy. Quinnipiac has 26, 65% accuracy.
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HillOfANight
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,459
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2016, 01:56:38 PM »
https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664
https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664

Pennsylvania white voters:
Trump, 40%
Clinton, 40%

Pennsylvania black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 91%

Ohio white voters:
Trump, 43%
Clinton, 33%

Ohio black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 88%
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HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2016, 09:03:10 AM »
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/714-ia-oh-pa-trump-and-clinton-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-ahead-in-pennsylvania/

Marist has released the crosstabs.

Cool regional breakdowns. Clinton 72-12 in Philadelphia, 55-26 in its suburbs, trailing 39-44 in NE PA, trailing 33-43 in Central PA, and trailing 38-43 in West PA. Don't have time to compare vs Romney's performance or 2012 Marist polls.
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