NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton tied in OH, +3 in IA, +9 in PA

[pbrower2a]

The Pennsylvania number seems off. I don't think Trump is only at 35

Rick Santorum got 41% of the popular vote in an embarrassing loss of a Senate seat in Pennsylvania in 2006.  That's the likely floor for a Republican Presidential nominee in Pennsylvania without a Favorite Son effect.   

Clinton will win this state with a strong get-out-the-vote drive that gets minorities (in Pennsylvania, that largely means blacks in Greater Philadelphia) who are never going to forgive him for failing to ditch David DuKKKe.

[pbrower2a]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/714-ia-oh-pa-trump-and-clinton-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-ahead-in-pennsylvania/

Marist has released the crosstabs.

Cool regional breakdowns. Clinton 72-12 in Philadelphia, 55-26 in its suburbs, trailing 39-44 in NE PA, trailing 33-43 in Central PA, and trailing 38-43 in West PA. Don't have time to compare vs Romney's performance or 2012 Marist polls.

Just what I thought, Trump is getting killed in the Philly suburbs.

Educated white people recently split about 50-50 between Clinton and Trump in some polls.  Such would explain Trump doing worse in Philly suburbs than Romney did in 2012.