NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton tied in OH, +3 in IA, +9 in PA

[dspNY]

Quinnipiac basically souped up its polls for Trump. These are more believable. Ironically both Q and NBC have Ohio tied

[dspNY]

Marist is a much, much better poll than Quinnipiac.

They are both good pollsters. It's a matter of A- vs. A, which really isn't that different.

OH and IA are in the basic ballpark as other pollsters. There are issues with PA, obviously. One or both polls are outliers.

Considering the history of how PA votes compared to OH and FL it's pretty easy to see that Q is the outlier. PA is almost never more conservative than OH or FL in a general election. Clinton might not have a 9 point lead in PA but she leads with 95% confidence IMO and that poll is much closer to being right

[dspNY]

Trumps internal's showed him tied in VA. That's what politico says.

He's down 5 in VA then if the best spin he can put on Virginia is a tie

[dspNY]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/714-ia-oh-pa-trump-and-clinton-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-ahead-in-pennsylvania/

Marist has released the crosstabs.

Cool regional breakdowns. Clinton 72-12 in Philadelphia, 55-26 in its suburbs, trailing 39-44 in NE PA, trailing 33-43 in Central PA, and trailing 38-43 in West PA. Don't have time to compare vs Romney's performance or 2012 Marist polls.

Just what I thought, Trump is getting killed in the Philly suburbs.

That would indicate a map where the Philly burbs are bluer than 2012 and NE PA is slightly redder with the rest of the state looking the same save for Western PA possibly looking bluer. Since the Philly burbs are more populated that's how we get Clinton +9 in this poll compared to Obama +5 in 2012