Marquette Law School WI: Clinton +6 RV, Clinton +4 LV

[Gass3268]

July 7 - July 10

Registered Voters

Clinton 43% (+1 since June)
Trump 37% (+2 since June)

Likely Voters

Clinton 45% (-1 since June)
Trump 41% (+4 since June)

4 Way Race Registered

Clinton 40%
Trump 33%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%

4 Way Race Likely Voters

Clinton 43%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%

[dspNY]

So we can assume about a 3 point hit for Clinton due to the emails even in the souped up Q polls. We can fix that at the conventions where everything will reset

[Eraserhead]

She better send Bernie over there ASAP.

[Seriously?]

So we can assume about a 3 point hit for Clinton due to the emails even in the souped up Q polls. We can fix that at the conventions where everything will reset

Not really. The race was in the 3-5 range before the e-mail server hit. Arguably, it's 1-3 at this point, if you throw out Reuters, the Clintonista firm, RABA, etc.

I'd put the impact more at a point or two, if anything. The convention will probably put Trump at even or slightly ahead, followed by the Democrat convention. Then the race is on. I don't see a blowout from either side at this point in time.

As far as Marquette goes, they are the gold standard in Wisconsin. I am shocked that it is this close.

[Devout Centrist]

So we can assume about a 3 point hit for Clinton due to the emails even in the souped up Q polls. We can fix that at the conventions where everything will reset

Not really. The race was in the 3-5 range before the e-mail server hit. Arguably, it's 1-3 at this point, if you throw out Reuters, the Clintonista firm, RABA, etc.

I'd put the impact more at a point or two, if anything. The convention will probably put Trump at even or slightly ahead, followed by the Democrat convention. Then the race is on. I don't see a blowout from either side at this point in time.

You mock people for saying the Quinnipiac polls are skewed and then you do the exact same thing.

[Seriously?]

July 7 - July 10

Registered Voters

Clinton 43% (+1 since June)
Trump 37% (+2 since June)

Likely Voters

Clinton 45% (-1 since June)
Trump 41% (+4 since June)

4 Way Race Registered

Clinton 40%
Trump 33%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%

4 Way Race Likely Voters

Clinton 43%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%

You may want to amend the title to be state specific. I assume this is a WI poll, right?

[dspNY]

Keep in mind in 2012 Obama won here by 7 with a Wisconsinite on the ticket for the GOP so flipping Wisconsin in a general election will be nearly impossible for the GOP

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin was never going to be a blow out, the state is too polarizing for that. This is essentially anti-Trump Republicans coming home.

[Ebsy]

Marquette Law School is a Wisconsin poll.

[Seriously?]

So we can assume about a 3 point hit for Clinton due to the emails even in the souped up Q polls. We can fix that at the conventions where everything will reset

Not really. The race was in the 3-5 range before the e-mail server hit. Arguably, it's 1-3 at this point, if you throw out Reuters, the Clintonista firm, RABA, etc.

I'd put the impact more at a point or two, if anything. The convention will probably put Trump at even or slightly ahead, followed by the Democrat convention. Then the race is on. I don't see a blowout from either side at this point in time.

You mock people for saying the Quinnipiac polls are skewed and then you do the exact same thing.

It's a matter of methodology with some of those national polls. Is it possible that it's Clinton +8 or +13? Yes.Likely. No. Not with the state numbers you are getting. I don't trust the internet-only polls and definitely don't trust anything from Carville.

[Ljube]

Wisconsin was never going to be a blow out, the state is too polarizing for that. This is essentially anti-Trump Republicans coming home.

I certainly hope so. If they do all come home, Trump wins.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin was never going to be a blow out, the state is too polarizing for that. This is essentially anti-Trump Republicans coming home.

I certainly hope so. If they do all come home, Trump wins.

Nope, Wisconsin doesn't work that way either.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Very good for Clinton. She's got this state.

[Eraserhead]

Wisconsin was never going to be a blow out, the state is too polarizing for that. This is essentially anti-Trump Republicans coming home.

I certainly hope so. If they do all come home, Trump wins.

Nah, probably not. Bush couldn't even get over the line here in '04.

[Gass3268]

This poll was taken right after the worst week of Clinton's campaign, and still Trump only gained 1-3 points from June.

[Eraserhead]

Very good for Clinton. She's got this state.

It's an okay showing. She should send in Sanders and Obama to help lock it down for her (and for Big Russ) though.

[Ljube]

Wisconsin was never going to be a blow out, the state is too polarizing for that. This is essentially anti-Trump Republicans coming home.

I certainly hope so. If they do all come home, Trump wins.

Nah, probably not. Bush couldn't even get over the line here in '04.

I wasn't talking about WI. I was talking about the overall result. WI is just a sign of the healing process.

[Ljube]

Wisconsin was never going to be a blow out, the state is too polarizing for that. This is essentially anti-Trump Republicans coming home.

I certainly hope so. If they do all come home, Trump wins.

Nope, Wisconsin doesn't work that way either.

You are right about Wisconsin. I was referring to the overall election result, not Wisconsin in particular, which will vote for Hillary.

[Nhoj]

Very good for Clinton. She's got this state.

It's an okay showing. She should send in Sanders and Obama to help lock it down for her (and for Big Russ) though.

That was her plan prior to orlando.

[psychprofessor]

Hillary is running about even with Feingold with RV. She's up 6, he's up 7. They are both going to win here by mid to high single digits.

[Xing]

Still not a terrible result for Hillary. WI isn't going to be a blowout, unless it's another 2008, but it's hard to argue that she's not favored. I mean, her lead has been outside of the MoE in every recent poll in Wisconsin.