NBC/WSJ/Marist Senate polls IA/ PA/ OH McGinty Leading, Ohio Tied, Grassley +10
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  NBC/WSJ/Marist Senate polls IA/ PA/ OH McGinty Leading, Ohio Tied, Grassley +10
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist Senate polls IA/ PA/ OH McGinty Leading, Ohio Tied, Grassley +10  (Read 1392 times)
swf541
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« on: July 13, 2016, 12:46:22 PM »

Grassley 52-42

McGinty 47-44

OH exactly tied at 44
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2016, 12:51:13 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2016, 12:51:40 PM »

Pennsylvania's fundamentals are going to drag McGinty across the finish line.

PA Senate is now officially Lean D.
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swf541
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2016, 12:52:05 PM »

considering the other two races match averages I definitely think the PA number is possible considering the clinton numbers in the same poll
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2016, 12:52:10 PM »


What's junk about Toomey running +6 of Trump? You think it's more than that? Unlikely.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2016, 12:53:10 PM »


What's junk about Toomey running +6 of Trump? You think it's more than that? Unlikely.

I don't believe Clinton +8 will be the case on election day.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2016, 12:54:04 PM »

Great result! Toomey is crashing!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2016, 12:55:03 PM »

Glorious news!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2016, 12:55:14 PM »


Looking more and more like Dems pick up 5-6 Senate seats.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2016, 02:40:01 PM »

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2016, 03:06:12 PM »

Contrary to Atlas belief, PA is not going to flip outside of a wave. OH, IN, FL, NC and AZ are all more likely to flip than PA.
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2016, 03:19:29 PM »

I'm having a hard time believing those PA numbers.
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Vosem
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« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2016, 03:19:55 PM »


That's unpleasant


What's junk about Toomey running +6 of Trump? You think it's more than that? Unlikely.

I don't believe Clinton +8 will be the case on election day.

Why not?
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2016, 03:28:54 PM »

I'm having a hard time believing those PA numbers.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2016, 03:35:44 PM »


That's unpleasant


What's junk about Toomey running +6 of Trump? You think it's more than that? Unlikely.

I don't believe Clinton +8 will be the case on election day.

Why not?

Obama won the state by 5. Trump is a better fit than Romney for the state - Romney's '12 performance is probably a "base" performance for Trump - with a good campaign, it could look like Bush '04. However he probably doesn't win it unless he's winning the election - I just don't see Florida and Pennsylvania voting for different candidates.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2016, 03:54:53 PM »

Right, Toomey leading by double digits is so much more believable than McGinty leading by 3. Roll Eyes Anyway, this whole poll is pretty fishy.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2016, 04:00:43 PM »

Contrary to Atlas belief, PA is not going to flip outside of a wave. OH, IN, FL, NC and AZ are all more likely to flip than PA.

PA is now the 4th most likely seat to flip. Only IL, WI, and NH are more likely. McGinty is now the clear favorite.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2016, 04:02:45 PM »

You have to take into account the presidential results for these while interpreting them.

If Hillary wins PA by 9 (as the presidential side shows), then McGinty will win. There aren't enough ticket splitters for Toomey to overcome a margin that large, as I said before. But, I don't think she's currently up 9.

Ohio is consistent with everything we've seen. Deadheat in the presidential race, deadheat in the Senate race.

Grassley will be re-elected, but possibly within single digits and almost certainly in the closest race of his career. There's too much ticket splitters with misguided loyalty to him to dislodge the old fart. I think even in a mega landslide he'd only get Warner'd.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2016, 04:04:56 PM »

lol Wulfric


Pat Toomey is not a cunning political mastermind. Kate McGinty is not a dumpster fire. They are Generic R and Generic D in a state that slightly favors Democrats.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2016, 04:06:38 PM »

lol Wulfric


Pat Toomey is not a cunning political mastermind. Kate McGinty is not a dumpster fire. They are Generic R and Generic D in a state that slightly favors Democrats.

Eh, I wouldn't say that either. Toomey is slightly better than generic R and McGinty is slightly worse than generic D. But yes, Atlas does heavily exaggerate the differences. Toomey could survive a small Hillary win in PA, but not a big one.
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swf541
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« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2016, 04:56:32 PM »


That's unpleasant


What's junk about Toomey running +6 of Trump? You think it's more than that? Unlikely.

I don't believe Clinton +8 will be the case on election day.

Why not?

Obama won the state by 5. Trump is a better fit than Romney for the state - Romney's '12 performance is probably a "base" performance for Trump - with a good campaign, it could look like Bush '04. However he probably doesn't win it unless he's winning the election - I just don't see Florida and Pennsylvania voting for different candidates.

suburban parts of PA may swing hard against Trump
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2016, 05:10:06 PM »

Contrary to Atlas belief, PA is not going to flip outside of a wave. OH, IN, FL, NC and AZ are all more likely to flip than PA.

PA is now the 4th most likely seat to flip. Only IL, WI, and NH are more likely. McGinty is now the clear favorite.

Only if you believe Clinton is leading Pennsylvania by 9, which is quite sketchy when she's tied in Ohio.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2016, 05:20:04 PM »

I don't get this "If Hillary is winning PA by more than 3, Toomey is toast" talk. If that was true, Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, Jon Tester and Claire McCaskill all wouldn't be Senators today. The only reason Clinton is dominating the presidential race is because Trump is an absolute garbage candidate who is undeperforming a generic R by several points. No voter is going to change their mind on who to vote for in the Senate race based on that. Bold prediction: If McGinty is winning, Democrats will have already won IL, WI, OH, IN, MO, NC, FL, NV, CO and NH.

The Senate race has nothing to do with the presidential race.

Grassley will be re-elected, but possibly within single digits and almost certainly in the closest race of his career. There's too much ticket splitters with misguided loyalty to him to dislodge the old fart. I think even in a mega landslide he'd only get Warner'd.

That's the problem in almost every state, though. Swing voters vote for a Senate candidate based on his personality/looks, not ideology. That's why we have so many fake moderates in Congress. Sad.

All those examples you list have extenuating circumstances.

Manchin - From a bygone era, ran against a trash-tier opponent twice. His goose is cooked in 2018.

Heitkamp/Tester - Very popular, from a small retail politics state (more likely to have ticket splitters), bad opponent.

Donnelly/McCaskill - Akin/Mourdock, no more needs to be said.

PA is not a retail politics state. Toomey is a decent candidate, but he's not super popular. McGinty isn't the strongest opponent, but she's not toxic either.

I would say if Hillary wins PA by <5, Toomey survives. 8+ points and McGinty wins. In between, it could go either way.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2016, 05:51:59 PM »

For 2012, Manchin won by so much that I don't think he was beatable with any opponent, especially with Tomblin winning too. 2010 is more of an open question, which is why I don't see him as Safe in 2018. But he's more of a Hagan than a Begich or Landrieu on terms of vulnerability. I don't think it's wise to call Manchin dead based on Tennant/Rahall as they are different candidates, and Republicans have a pretty thin bench unless McKinley or Morissey is willing to run.
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Higgs
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2016, 07:21:31 PM »

Lmao at Gass practically declaring this race over because of one poll. Toomey will win, and I will laugh in Gass's face.
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