NBC/WSJ/Marist Senate polls IA/ PA/ OH McGinty Leading, Ohio Tied, Grassley +10

[IceSpear]

You have to take into account the presidential results for these while interpreting them.

If Hillary wins PA by 9 (as the presidential side shows), then McGinty will win. There aren't enough ticket splitters for Toomey to overcome a margin that large, as I said before. But, I don't think she's currently up 9.

Ohio is consistent with everything we've seen. Deadheat in the presidential race, deadheat in the Senate race.

Grassley will be re-elected, but possibly within single digits and almost certainly in the closest race of his career. There's too much ticket splitters with misguided loyalty to him to dislodge the old fart. I think even in a mega landslide he'd only get Warner'd.

[IceSpear]

lol Wulfric


Pat Toomey is not a cunning political mastermind. Kate McGinty is not a dumpster fire. They are Generic R and Generic D in a state that slightly favors Democrats.

Eh, I wouldn't say that either. Toomey is slightly better than generic R and McGinty is slightly worse than generic D. But yes, Atlas does heavily exaggerate the differences. Toomey could survive a small Hillary win in PA, but not a big one.

[IceSpear]

I don't get this "If Hillary is winning PA by more than 3, Toomey is toast" talk. If that was true, Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, Jon Tester and Claire McCaskill all wouldn't be Senators today. The only reason Clinton is dominating the presidential race is because Trump is an absolute garbage candidate who is undeperforming a generic R by several points. No voter is going to change their mind on who to vote for in the Senate race based on that. Bold prediction: If McGinty is winning, Democrats will have already won IL, WI, OH, IN, MO, NC, FL, NV, CO and NH.

The Senate race has nothing to do with the presidential race.

Grassley will be re-elected, but possibly within single digits and almost certainly in the closest race of his career. There's too much ticket splitters with misguided loyalty to him to dislodge the old fart. I think even in a mega landslide he'd only get Warner'd.

That's the problem in almost every state, though. Swing voters vote for a Senate candidate based on his personality/looks, not ideology. That's why we have so many fake moderates in Congress. Sad.

All those examples you list have extenuating circumstances.

Manchin - From a bygone era, ran against a trash-tier opponent twice. His goose is cooked in 2018.

Heitkamp/Tester - Very popular, from a small retail politics state (more likely to have ticket splitters), bad opponent.

Donnelly/McCaskill - Akin/Mourdock, no more needs to be said.

PA is not a retail politics state. Toomey is a decent candidate, but he's not super popular. McGinty isn't the strongest opponent, but she's not toxic either.

I would say if Hillary wins PA by <5, Toomey survives. 8+ points and McGinty wins. In between, it could go either way.

[IceSpear]

Lmao at Gass practically declaring this race over because of one poll. Toomey will win, and I will laugh in Gass's face.

So you're laughing at him declaring the race over...then declare the race over?