Latino Polling MT - Clinton +57 in new tracking poll

[ProudModerate2]

So Trump is doing worse than Romney with Hispanics, White women and educated voters? Sad!

If trump's numbers continue to be abysmal with these three groups (Hispanics, White women and educated voters) he will most definitely lose in Nov.

[Likely Voter]

Latino Decisions RNC Day 2

Horse race
Clinton 74
Trump 15

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http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/3914/6904/3057/LVP_RNC_Toplines_Day_2.pdf

[Erc]

So Trump is doing worse than Romney with Hispanics, White women and educated voters? Sad!

If trump's numbers continue to be abysmal with these three groups (Hispanics, White women and educated voters) he will most definitely lose in Nov.

What I don't understand is given these national numbers among various subgroups, why the race seems as close as it does on a national and state level.

Is Trump doing way (like, 5+ points) better than Romney among white voters without college degrees?
Are polls not reaching Hispanic voters or assuming they won't turn out?
Are there huge regional variations in the Hispanic vote (e.g. the few Trump supporters are all in Texas?)
Are the huge numbers of undecided just screwing with everything?

Given these sorts of numbers, we should be discussing whether Hillary can win Texas or whether she can win Pennsylvania by double digits--how badly Trump will lose by, not whether he can win or not.

[Ebsy]

At least among Latinos, Trump's convention bump is looking a little more like a cliff.

[Dr. Arch]

So Trump is doing worse than Romney with Hispanics, White women and educated voters? Sad!

If trump's numbers continue to be abysmal with these three groups (Hispanics, White women and educated voters) he will most definitely lose in Nov.

What I don't understand is given these national numbers among various subgroups, why the race seems as close as it does on a national and state level.

Is Trump doing way (like, 5+ points) better than Romney among white voters without college degrees?
Are polls not reaching Hispanic voters or assuming they won't turn out?
Are there huge regional variations in the Hispanic vote (e.g. the few Trump supporters are all in Texas?)
Are the huge numbers of undecided just screwing with everything?

Given these sorts of numbers, we should be discussing whether Hillary can win Texas or whether she can win Pennsylvania by double digits--how badly Trump will lose by, not whether he can win or not.

Certainly, something is off about the polls, but they do want a horse-race narrative. The breakdowns simply do not point to a close race, especially with the electorate being more diverse now than it was in either 2008 or 2012.

[IceSpear]

At least among Latinos, Trump's convention bump is looking a little more like a cliff.

It seems like they're more focused on cracking 70% in West Virginia and Kentucky. I'm sure Santander will be thrilled.

[Ebsy]

July 21st Latino Decisions:

Clinton: 75(+1)
Trump: 14(-1)

Pence as VP, More or Less Likely?:
More likely: 14
Less likely: 86

[Flake]

Wow.

I mean I know to take polls with a grain of salt but unless Hillary is completely decimated among white people (which seems to be unlikely because she's got educated white voters), she's going to win *big*.

[heatcharger]

I really hope FL Hispanics, who I know are more Republican than the nation, see Rubio as an extension of the Party of Trump and knock him out as well.

[Likely Voter]

Some other highlights from LT Day 3
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/07/21/highlights-from-day-3-of-lvpldfusion-gop-convention-poll/

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That 72% 'motivated to vote' number should be troubling. The saving grace for the GOP with Latinos is that they don't vote at the same rate as Whites and Blacks. They are already growing simply due to the fact that there are more of them, but if their turnout rate also goes up, that is a big problem...and one that polling will miss.   But of course, people can say they plan to vote and then not.  

[Likely Voter]

Day 4 of RNC polling

EDIT: PDF updated with different numbers



Clinton: 76  (+4 since Day 1)
Trump: 13   (-4 since Day 1)

Other highlights
- 72% feel watching the RNC makes them feel "Not Wanted in the Republican party"
- 77% describe the Republican party as "Dangerous"
- 81% agree that the "crowd chanting “build the wall” is disturbing and encourages discrimination against immigrants and Latinos"
- 85% agree that the after four days of the RNC "Donald Trump and Republicans have worsened their image with Latino voters"
- 87% describe Donald Trump as a "bully"


New PDF

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/4214/6921/4949/LVP_RNC_ToplinesDay4.pdf

[Gass3268]

Day 4 of RNC polling

Clinton: 72
Trump: 17

That was the same as Day one so Trump actually recovered a bit after losing ground on Day 2 and 3.

Other highlights
- 72% feel watching the RNC makes them feel "Not Wanted in the Republican party"
- 77% describe the Republican party as "Dangerous"
- 81% agree that the "crowd chanting “build the wall” is disturbing and encourages discrimination against immigrants and Latinos"
- 85% agree that the after four days of the RNC "Donald Trump and Republicans have worsened their image with Latino voters"
- 87% describe Donald Trump as a "bully"

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/9714/6921/2490/LVP_RNC_Toplines_Day_4.pdf

The amazing thing about this sample is that 46% of this sample claim that they have voted for Republicans in past elections.

[Dr. Arch]

The Hispanic vote floor this cycle seems to be about 70% and can go as high as 90% in a worst-case scenario. If Hispanics start voting like African-Americans, it's lights out for the GOP.

[Ebsy]

Likely Voter, those are the wrong numbers: http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/4214/6921/4949/LVP_RNC_ToplinesDay4.pdf

Clinton: 76(+1)
Trump: 13(-1)

So Clinton has gained an 8 point advantage with Latinos over the course of the convention.

[Likely Voter]

Updated my update. They switched the PDFs so I guess they must have put the Day 1 data out again on accident or something.

[dspNY]

Likely Voter, those are the wrong numbers: http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/4214/6921/4949/LVP_RNC_ToplinesDay4.pdf

Clinton: 76(+1)
Trump: 13(-1)

So Clinton has gained an 8 point advantage with Latinos over the course of the convention.

Texas is only Lean R with those #s

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I got Arizona and/or Georgia turning into tossups. He probably made the map much harder for himself than he should've

[IceSpear]

Dominating!

[Adam Griffin]

The Hispanic vote floor this cycle seems to be about 70% and can go as high as 90% in a worst-case scenario. If Hispanics start voting like African-Americans, it's lights out for the GOP.

Meh, not necessarily. If you adjust the Latino vote to 90% D, Asian vote to 80% D and increase turnout for both groups by 5 points, the electoral map is identical to 2012. It creates a nice mandate via the popular vote, but doesn't actually affect the meaningful outcome in any way. I'm sure this is part of the reason why the GOP doesn't seem to care all that much in the short-term about alienating these people: most of them live in solid blue/red states.

[Gass3268]

National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO) Education Fund, Telemundo and Latino Decisions Tracking Poll:

Week 3: 73% Clinton (+57) / 16% Trump
Week 2: 72% Clinton (+54) / 18% Trump
Week 1: 71% Clinton (+53) / 18% Trump

Source

[Devout Centrist]

Trump may go sub 20% with Latinos.

Worst case scenario, Trump barely gets 13% of the Latino vote.

[Ebsy]

If those numbers hold up nationally, that is lose Arizona territory.

[Erc]

That is battleground Texas territory.