Tokyo Governor Election - 2016

[jaichind]

90% of the vote counted.  So far it is.

LDP rebel 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)                                                       45.1%
LDP-KP-PJK backed 増田 寛也(Masuda Hiroya)                                        27.8%
DP-PLP-SDP-JCP joint candidate 鳥越俊太郎 (Torigoe  Shuntaro)              20.9%
Somewhat pro-opposition media personality上杉隆(Uesugi Takashi)          2.5%
Far right super hawk 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)                                          1.5%

Minors continue to gain ground toward end of the count.

[jaichind]

Koike's vote share falls to around 45% which would put her to be below 3 million votes.

[jaichind]

Top 3 candidate vote share now around 93.5% which is pretty much inline with exit polls.  Koike is under-performing exit polls while Masuda and Torigoe both slightly over-performing exit polls.

[jaichind]

95% of the vote counted.  So far it is.

LDP rebel 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)                                                       45.1%
LDP-KP-PJK backed 増田 寛也(Masuda Hiroya)                                        27.8%
DP-PLP-SDP-JCP joint candidate 鳥越俊太郎 (Torigoe  Shuntaro)              20.7%
Somewhat pro-opposition media personality上杉隆(Uesugi Takashi)          2.5%
Far right super hawk 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)                                          1.5%

[jaichind]

97% of the vote counted.  So far it is.

LDP rebel 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)                                                       44.9%
LDP-KP-PJK backed 増田 寛也(Masuda Hiroya)                                        27.6%
DP-PLP-SDP-JCP joint candidate 鳥越俊太郎 (Torigoe  Shuntaro)              20.7%
Somewhat pro-opposition media personality上杉隆(Uesugi Takashi)          2.6%
Far right super hawk 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)                                          1.6%

[jaichind]

99% of the vote counted. 

LDP rebel 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)                                                       44.8%  2,892,896
LDP-KP-PJK backed 増田 寛也(Masuda Hiroya)                                        27.6%  1,780,946
DP-PLP-SDP-JCP joint candidate 鳥越俊太郎 (Torigoe  Shuntaro)              20.7%  1,335,649
Somewhat pro-opposition media personality上杉隆(Uesugi Takashi)          2.6%     169,082
Far right super hawk 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)                                          1.6%     104,889

[jaichind]

JNN exit poll

Koike 47.4 Masuda 26.5 Torigoe 19.3



LDP voters Koike 52.3 Masuda 39.8 Torigoe 3.6
KP voters Koike 23.4 Masuda 71.3 Torigoe 5.3
DP voters Koike 39.3 Masuda 8.2 Torigoe 49.1
JCP voters Koike 17.3 Masuda 5.5 Torigoe 71.3
Non Aligned  Koike 51.2 Masuda 18.8  Torigoe 20.1

Non Aligned contains a lot of marginal DP voters.  It is clear that there was a lot of tactical voting by DP voters toward  Koike and to some extent Masuda

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Congrats Ecoyuri.

What, substantially, as you would define them, jaichind (I know how certain other people would define them), are the differences between Koike-ism and Abe-ism (or between Koike-ism and a potential post-Abe Generic Jiminto-ism)?

[jaichind]

All votes counted

LDP rebel 小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko)                                                       44.5%  2,912,628
LDP-KP-PJK backed 増田 寛也(Masuda Hiroya)                                        27.4%  1,793,453
DP-PLP-SDP-JCP joint candidate 鳥越俊太郎 (Torigoe  Shuntaro)              20.6%  1,346,103
Somewhat pro-opposition media personality上杉隆(Uesugi Takashi)          2.7%     179,631
Far right super hawk 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)                                          1.7%     114,171

In retrospect, the exit poll was not very accurate.  It had Koike at 47.3% when she ended up with 44.5%.    And despite early result to the contrary the minor candidates actually outperformed exit polls by a bit.    In the 2016 Upper House elections, exit polls got 4 races wrong.  Historically Japanese exit polls were very accurate and almost on the mark in terms of vote share.  2016 seems to be a very poor year for exit polls in Japan.

[jaichind]

Congrats Ecoyuri.

What, substantially, as you would define them, jaichind (I know how certain other people would define them), are the differences between Koike-ism and Abe-ism (or between Koike-ism and a potential post-Abe Generic Jiminto-ism)?

I do not think that is much of a difference between Abe and Koike in terms of policy.  Koike was clearly the most right wing candidate of this election among the 3 major candidates.  Of course this did not stop her from getting a good chunk of the DP and even JCP vote.  What distinguishes her from Abe, like most things in Japanese politics, are more about personal and factional conflicts. 

This Tokyo LDP civil war in a local form is really about Koike vs 石原 伸晃 (Ishihara Nobuteru) who is the  leader of the LDP Tokyo chapter and fellow Lower House MP along with Koike.  Of course Ishihara is also the son of the legendary former Tokyo governor 石原 慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō) as well as the founder of FPG which is now PJK.  Koike approached  Ishihara about getting the LDP nomination and he told her to wait until after the Upper House elections.  Koike decided to just announce her candidacy anyway.  This infuriated Ishihara who then worked to nominate Masuda as the LDP candidate with the backing of Abe who was not on good terms with Koike anyway.   The Ishihara connection also meant that PJK came out in favor of Maduda and Ishihara senior coming out with very negative attacks on Koike which it seems backfired.  Also in the background is former LDP PM 小泉 純一郎 (Koizumi Jun'ichirō) who already broke with Abe back in 2014 in the last Tokyo governor race and have been plotting to restore his influence within LDP.  Koizumi clearly backed Koike as a part of his strategy to expand his influence in Japan politics.   Koizumi's son 小泉 進次郎 (Koizumi Shinjirō) who is a MP and is in the Abe cabinet is seen as a future LDP PM in a post Abe world.  Koizumi junior being in the Abe cabinet is more of a case of "Keep your friends close and enemies closer" by Abe who I am sure is working to try to destroy Koizumi junior's political career.   The person Abe is most likely is trying to back and groom for the future leader of LDP is most likely 菅 義偉 (Suga Yoshihide) who is a MP and Chief Cabinet Secretary (a role Abe played for PM Koizumi before being elevated to PM in 2006.)  Now Koike and Koizumi Senior are in his way.  At least now he has the Ishihara clan who used to be a rival to Abe years ago behind him.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Reading about Koizumi Junior he seems...decent (as a favoritist for back-country Japan in general and Tōhoku in particular, genuine-seeming concern for that part of the country is always a winner with me), although some of his behavior in 2012 seems insufferably hackish and worryingly power-obsessed.

[jaichind]

Exit polls by age



Torigoe(Blue) is strongest with those in the 60s and 70s+ and weakest with those in the 20s.
Koike(Green) is strongest with those in the 30s and 40s.
Masuda(Yellow) is strongest with those in the teens and 20s as well as 70s+.

[jaichind]

Far right super hawk 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) did pretty well crossing 100K votes.  Most of the Far Right Super Hawk vote went to Masuda due to the Ishihara/PJK support.  Sakurai has more influence in Osaka versus Tokyo so this performance is fairly credible given the circumstances.

[jaichind]

Reading about Koizumi Junior he seems...decent (as a favoritist for back-country Japan in general and Tōhoku in particular, genuine-seeming concern for that part of the country is always a winner with me), although some of his behavior in 2012 seems insufferably hackish and worryingly power-obsessed.

Well, most of these conflicts has nothing to do with ideology or policy principles.  Japanese political conflict tend to center around personal or factional conflicts.  The Japanese also superimpose their view of political conflict in their interpretation of foreign politics.  Japanese analysis of the various factional conflicts within the CCP focuses far to much, in my view, on personal/clan/factional conflict and focuses too little on real genuine ideological differences.   HK and ROC media analysis of internal CCP politics, in my view, takes the right balance between ideological and personal conflict within the CCP ruling hierarchy.   Overall, the Japanese media know what they are talking about as far as PRC politics is concerned and has good in depth knowledge of even fairly minor CCP players. I do not bother reading Japanese analysis of USA politics, just like ROC/HK analysis of USA politics, because they are usually way too superficial so I am not able to confirm similar biases there.  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yeah, I know you can't really divine ideologies from Japanese politicians based on who they're allied with or opposed to; I was just saying that Koizumi Junior specifically--separate from Koike, separate from his father, separate from Ishiba--seems relatively okay.

[Vega]

Prepared for a Torigoe loss, but it's a shame nonetheless. Maybe he'll run for something else at some point. I am glad to see that his loss hasn't seemed to effect the unified Opposition coalition.

[jaichind]

Turnout map








小池 百合子(Koike Yuriko) vote.  Very strong in central city.  She capture the white collor vote












増田 寛也(Masuda Hiroya) vte.  He won the KP vote which tends to be lower income and lives in the far out Tokyo suburbs where the commute is difficult but houing cost is lower


 









鳥越俊太郎 (Torigoe  Shuntaro) vote.  He did well amoung the retiree vote which also cluster around the suburbs












Far right super hawk 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) vote.  Strong in central city and near suburbs.  He must have capture a lot of the Right wing activist Youth vote.    

 

Edit: I put two versions of the map for the top 3 candidates  in case the other is not viewable

[jaichind]

Prepared for a Torigoe loss, but it's a shame nonetheless. Maybe he'll run for something else at some point. I am glad to see that his loss hasn't seemed to effect the unified Opposition coalition.

I doubt he will run for office again.  One of the reasons he lost, in addition to rumors of sexual harassment, was rumors that he was not in good health.   He is 76 already which added to these rumors. 

[Vega]

Prepared for a Torigoe loss, but it's a shame nonetheless. Maybe he'll run for something else at some point. I am glad to see that his loss hasn't seemed to effect the unified Opposition coalition.

I doubt he will run for office again.  One of the reasons he lost, in addition to rumors of sexual harassment, was rumors that he was not in good health.   He is 76 already which added to these rumors. 

Yes, an analogue to him is Hosokawa in the 2014 election for The Tokyo Governor. He did seen pretty spry on the campaign trail, though.

Anyway, I can't see seem to see your maps. Can anyone else?

[jaichind]

There were 4 by-elections for the Tokyo Assembly which offered some sign of hope for DP/JCP and signs of concern for LDP.  The LDP won all 4 seats mostly because 1 candidate needed to be elected for each district when all of them were multi-member districts for a regular election.  The vote shares show clear signs that DP and JCP vote shares have recovered strongly from 2013, which is expected given the higher turnout, and are approaching and sometimes exceeding 2005 (which is a "normal year") levels.

The 4 districts are  新宿(Shinjuku), 台東(Taito), 大田(Daejeon) and 渋谷(Shibuya).  They are all in central city Tokyo.  The vote shares (along with Governor race results)


             LDP      LDP rebel       DP          JCP            Sakurai   Koike     Masuda   Uesugi  Torigoe
                       (pro-Koike)
新宿    40.06%   17.77%    24.49%  17.68%          2.08%  45.82%  25.83%  3.33%  19.69%
台東    62.57%                                  37.43%         2.26%  46.26%  25.82%  3.24%  19.25%
大田    43.11%                    41.79%  15.11%         1.93%  44.55%  28.49%  2.63%  19.27%
渋谷    46.30%                    35.94%  17.76%         1.69%  45.96%  24.54%  3.87%  20.64%

You can see a lot of cross voting.  In 台東(Taito) even though 37% were leftist enough to be able to vote JCP (backed by DP of course), half of them defected, mostly to Koike and some a bit to Uesugi.  DP-JCP way overperformed in all districts.  What is interesting is that the governor race results are very similar in these 4 districts but they have very different results in the assembly by-elections.  This means the pattern of cross-voting varies a lot in different districts.   For example, in  大田(Daejeon) is where out of the 4 districts  Masuda did the best.  You would expect the LDP candidate would do best there given the relative loyalty of the LDP-KP base to the party.  But in fact the LDP assembly candidate did the worst there  and very nearly lost the race.  A lot of course depends on the nature of the personal vote of the candidates running in the assembly by-elections.

In 2013 when it was a blowout defeat for DPJ it was

             LDP/KP    LDP rebel        YP          JRP         DPJ+     DPJ rebel      JCP                        
新宿       53.80%     2.11%     8.22%    6.72%    11.33%                    17.82%
台東       48.50%                  13.32%                  23.43%                     14.75%
大田       53.52%     1.59%     6.21%  10.59%    15.85%                    12.24%
渋谷       31.09%                  10.05%    9.08%    13.36%    23.44%    12.98%


In 2009 when it a major victory for DPJ it was
          
                LDP+KP    LDP rebel      DPJ+          JCP
新宿           45.15%                     35.62%    16.40%
台東           39.84%                     44.43%    15.73%
大田           41.22%      1.76%     43.44%    12.89%
渋谷           30.67%                     50.72%    18.61%


In 2005 when it was a "normal" year it was

              LDP+KP     LDP rebel        DPJ+          JCP
新宿        52.53%                         25.88%    21.59%
台東        48.46%                         28.70%    22.84%
大田        54.82%      4.07%         26.15%    14.96%
渋谷        51.73%                         32.03%    16.25%

In 台東(Taito) where JCP ran by itself 1-on-1 vs LDP clearly there were some defections from DP vote base toward LDP.  Even then the JCP vote share in 2016 matched the sum of the DPJ+ and JCP vote share in 2013 which indicates a clear swing toward DP/JCP.  In other districts the vote shares of DP and JCP clearly exceeded 2013 levels and is at or even above 2005 levels.  In 2013 渋谷(Shibuya) the DPJ rebel artificially pushed up the center-left vote by pulling in votes LDP, YP and JRP so the DP improvement there is underestimated.   In one district,  大田(Daejeon), the DP and JCP vote shares are pretty much at 2009 levels.

These vote shares are a danger for LDP.  In 新宿(Shinjuku) where a Koike backed LDP rebel is running, using 2005 as a baseline, it seems that he pull in votes more from LDP than DP.   It also seems that Keiko was not able to transfer her full support to her LDP rebel candidate, both relative to LDP and DP vote blocs.   If so then a  Koike Party in the 2017 Tokyo Assembly elections could spell trouble for LDP.  In such a scenario a Koike  Party would be strong enough just to pull in votes from LDP but not enough to displace DP and JCP as the main opposition.  Such a scenario would spell disaster for LDP and most likely lead to a hung Tokyo Assembly.