The Scramble

[Progressive]

May 1, 2003

"Admiral Kelly, Captain Card, officers and sailors of the USS Abraham Lincoln, my fellow Americans: Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the Battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed. And now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing that country...the war on terror is not over, yet it is not endless. We do not know the day of final victory, but we have seen the turning of the tide. No act of the terrorists will change our purpose, or weaken our resolve, or alter their fate. Their cause is lost. Free nations will press on to victory....Our nation, free as ever, will continue to prevail with God's blessing and our military's strength. It has been the privilege of my lifetime to serve as its leader, it's commander-in-chief. When I first took the oath of this office I swore before the eyes of our Lord to protect this nation and above all, put its health, happiness, and security above my own. It is my profound and awesome responsibility to inform you all today that I will not be seeking a second term as your president. In one term, this administration has set out to confront the dangers at home and abroad. But as we draw our operations in Iraq to a close, it's critical that a new leader take lead of this most glorious nation. I thank you all for your love support and prayers that I have received over the past three years, and I look forward to continued blessings until my time as president up come January 2005. Thank you, God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.


Stay tuned.

[Progressive]

THE SCRAMBLE BEGINS

May 4, 2003

After President Bush's shocking announcement that he would not seek a second term, the country was in shock and the political world was left in a frenzy. News outlets confirmed that just a handful of folks were aware of Bush's decision, and even a smaller number knew exactly when the president would announce. In the days prior to the announcement, he informed his Vice President, Dick Cheney, a number of national and domestic security personnel on his staff, and his wife, daughters, parents and brother, Jeb Bush, Florida's governor.

President Bush made it clear that he wanted his partner in government, Dick Cheney, and brother, Jeb Bush to serve on a ticket together. And in a nearly one-hour phone conversation with RNC Chair Marc Racicot and future chair Ed Gillespie, President Bush indicated that unless they were on a ticket together, or unless one of them decided not to run, he would not actively support a candidate in the Republican primary race to succeed him.

Apparently, Dick Cheney, a reluctant politico, was prepared to announce a presidential campaign promising just one term, but did not want to serve with Jeb Bush as his VP, for fear that President Bush (and his father's) confidants would pull the strings of the administration too closely. Jeb Bush, Florida's governor, and the President's brother, wants to run anticipating two terms and does not want to serve with Cheney. In fact, Jeb Bush, wants to run with a focus on education, local economic development, and reforming social security.

Week of May 5-11, 2013

The news of President Bush's decision to seek just one term shocked Democrats, too. The primary race to take on George W. Bush was already taking shape. Sen. John Kerry, Gov. Howard Dean, Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Sen. John Edwards, Rep. Dick Gephardt, Sen. Carole Moseley-Braun, Sen. Joe Lieberman, and Rev. Al Sharpton were already exploring or officially running as Democratic candidates. Previously, Sen. Tom Daschle, the Democratic Senate leader, and Sen. Hillary Clinton had already declined runs. But news of Bush's decision reportedly sparked renewed interest in both of them, especially Daschle.


Gov. Jeb Bush has already launched preliminary "shots" at Cheney. In an interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC's This Week, Bush was asked about whether he wants Cheney to run or whether he would be willing to run against Cheney. Bush replied, "Look, George, I don't know yet what I'm doing. Right now I'm focused on serving the people of my state, and we'll start to analyze the politics soon, but I do wish the Vice President [Cheney] well, and I hope that if he runs, his health permits him to do so rigorously and happily."

Meanwhile, the Vice President's inner circle was reportedly livid that Jeb Bush mocked his health, a talking point often used by the left to suggest that the Vice President had no heart, in a metaphorical sense. Cheney called George W. Bush that night and said "your brother is not ready for this. That was cheap. It was cowardly. It's beneath the Bushes."

Despite the Cheney-Jeb Bush standstill, other Republican candidates are quickly emerging. Sen. John McCain, Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and businessman Donald Trump are reportedly mulling candidacies.

NEXT UP: The Cheney-Jeb Bush standstill ends. One "wins," one does not. What happens next?! Find out soon as we finish the end of May.

[Kingpoleon]

What's Dick Durbin up to?

[Progressive]

STALEMATE ENDS

Late May/Early June 2003

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush celebrated his first win of the 2004 primary election without yet having his name on a ballot. With an increasing threat of a strong primary challenge from candidates other than Bush, Vice President Cheney decided to scrap his plans for president and instead focus on finishing his term as vice president. Jeb Bush would have announced his plans in a video on the day Cheney phoned him to let him know if his plans if not for a slight complication:


Rudy Giuliani, affectionately known as 'America's Mayor' for his perceived heroic leadership during 9/11 catapulted to the front of the race by announcing that he was foregoing an exploratory committee to run for president. "What's there to explore? When you know you're ready to lead, you don't have to test the waters," explained Giuliani to a reporter at the National Press Club.

Making matters even more tricky for Jeb Bush, is his decision to forego using Karl Rove as a top campaign aide and instead asking him to serve out the remainder of his brother's term as president. Devastated, President Bush asked his brother to reconsider, insisting that Rove would be able to assist with evangelical voters, a voting bloc that Giuliani and McCain were unlikely to naturally grab. But Bush insisted on using a fresh slate of political advisers, including many from Florida. In early June, Jeb Bush announced his campaign for president at a Miami rally, accompanied by his family.

Meanwhile, Sen. McCain and other GOP candidates, including Speaker Newt Gingrich, businessman Donald Trump, Attorney General John Ashcroft, Governor Mike Huckabee and others were inching closer toward launching a bid for the GOP nomination. Cabinet members began to leave en masse, making Jeb Bush and his brother, the president, increasingly paranoid about who would run.

LATE MAY POLLS:

National Polling Average: 23% Bush, 16% Giuliani, 15% McCain, 5% Gingrich, 5% Trump, 1% Ashcroft, 1% Huckabee, remainder undecided


Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle announced his bid for the Democratic nomination, complicating things for the other Democratic candidates. Meanwhile, Sen. Hillary Clinton ultimately decided not to run for president.

Gov. Howard Dean has launched the first TV ads of the race, focusing on "repairing and healing" after a "devastating" George W. Bush presidency. The ads seem to have resonated with base, grassroots liberal voters, but Daschle, Rep. Gephardt and Sen. John Kerry are receiving the bulk of endorsements from their colleagues in Congress.

LATE MAY POLLS:

National Polling Average: 16% Gephardt, 16% Daschle, 12% Kerry, 11% Dean, 7% Lieberman, 4% Edwards, 2% Kucinich, 1% Moseley Braun, 1% Sharpton, remainder undecided

NEXT UP: Surprise entries in both primaries, plus, reports of bad behavior in the Bush administration turns the race on its head. Stay tuned.

[Kingpoleon]

Will Danforth get Attorney General if Ashcroft resigns?

[Progressive]

Will Danforth get Attorney General if Ashcroft resigns?

Re: Durbin, he has endorsed Dascle.

Re: Ashcroft, Pres. Bush is pleading with him to not seek the office as is the rest of the Bush family desperate from letting Jeb experience a GOP primary bloodbath

[Progressive]

Any thoughts? Interesting ideas or questions? Next update coming this week

[Kingpoleon]

I'm rooting for Dean, Lieberman, McCain, or Giuliani. Hopefully one of them gets on the ticket.

[Progressive]

JEB BUSH STRUGGLES; DEMOCRATIC FIELD IN LIMBO

THE REPUBLICANS

June 2003

Early June: Throughout early June, Jeb Bush fumbled a number of big interviews with morning talk news shows and Republican/conservative base events. At a 'Freedom Forum' hastily organized by a group of Iowa evangelicals, Bush told the crowd his focus would not be on social issues and would not be on "escalating war" but would be on Social Security reform and repairing the American education system. Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain and Gov. Mike Huckabee reportedly "wowed" the crowd in Iowa, with McCain's focus on defeating terror through "strong families and a strong military," and Huckabee's focus on social issues. Karl Rove, who was asked by Jeb Bush not be on his campaign was still giving Jeb advice through the channels of the Bush family, and urged President Bush to tell his brother to focus on the conservative base. Making matters even worse for Jeb Bush: Sen. McCain and NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani reported stellar fundraising during the first month of their presidential campaigns, and also collected numerous endorsements from the early states.


Mayor Giuliani received early endorsements from Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN), Gov. George Pataki (R-NY), and a slew of New Hampshire state legislators.


Sen. McCain campaigned in New Hampshire in June 2003 brandishing his newest and most prominent endorser, Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA), who is speculated to be on all GOP candidates' VP shortlist.

Mid/Late June: By late June, a number of core constituencies of the Republican base remained uninspired by the current crop of candidates: Jeb Bush, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Huckabee. Donald Trump and John Ashcroft ultimately decided not to run. Top evangelical leaders began recruiting Sen. Bill Frist, the reliably conservative Senate Majority Leader. Reluctant at first, Frist began receiving phone calls from various Republican elected officials promising their support if he entered the race. By late June, Frist announced that he was "actively exploring" a bid for the presidency.

LATE JUNE IOWA GOP POLLING AVERAGE: 21% Bush, 13% Frist, 11% McCain, 9% Giuliani, 3% Huckabee; 43% undecided

LATE JUNE NATIONAL GOP POLLING AVERAGE: 25% Bush, 15% McCain, 14% Frist, 12% Giuliani, 2% Huckabee; 32% undecided

THE DEMOCRATS

Early/Mid June: Numerous reports began to surface that former Vice President and 2000 Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore was reconsidering a bid for president. Democratic insiders suggested that a Gore entrance to the race would result in several of the more establishment-minded candidates (i.e. Gephardt, Kerry, and Daschle)




Late June: Despite the potential of Gore's surprise entry, Gov. Howard Dean has begun racking up endorsements including MoveOn.org and local elected officials in Iowa. Dean is branding himself as the "liberal antidote" to the George W. Bush presidency

LATE JUNE IOWA DEMOCRATIC POLLING AVERAGE (WITH GORE): 30% Gore, 14% Dean, 13% Daschle, 5% Kerry, 5% Lieberman, 5% Gephardt, 5% Edwards, 1% Kucinich, 0% Moseley Braun, 0% Sharpton; 22% undecided

LATE JUNE IOWA DEMOCRATIC POLLING AVERAGE (WITHOUT GORE): 20% Daschle, 16% Dean, 10% Kerry, 7% Gephardt, 6% Edwards, 5% Lieberman, 1% Kucinich, 0% Moseley Braun, 0% Sharpton, 35% undecided

LATE JUNE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC POLLING AVERAGE (WITH GORE): 36% Gore, 12% Kerry, 12% Daschle, 11% Gephardt, 3% Edwards, 3% Lieberman, 1% Kucinich, 1% Sharpton, 0% Moseley Braun; 21% undecided

LATE JUNE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC POLLING AVERAGE (WITHOUT GORE): 18% Daschle, 14% Kerry, 14% Dean, 12% Gephardt, 7% Lieberman, 4% Edwards, 2% Sharpton, 1% Kucinich, 0% Moseley Braun; 28% undecided

COMING UP IN JULY: FIRST DEBATES!

[Progressive]

JEB THE GHOST

THE REPUBLICANS

July and August 2003

Jeb the Ghost:

 

A series of Republican debates in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia resulted in Sen. Bill Frist and Sen. John McCain speaking the most, with Mayor Rudy Giuliani serving as a counterpunch to Frist, defending the Bush administration, and calling McCain "dovish" on issues of terror and national security. Meanwhile, Gov. Bush was notably quiet, and even interjected, during a conversation about the use of IEDs and defending strategic targets in Iraq, stating: "I want to talk about defending our national nest egg and I'd like to declare war on fiscal irresponsibility and foolish Washington-style liberal spending." Bush's comments were met with some boos. Meanwhile, Gov. Huckabee focused largely on family and social issues.

Trump Picks Frist: Billionaire businessman Donald Trump, who flirted with his own Republican presidential bid, announced in July that he would back Sen. Frist. In a joint press conference at Trump Tower, Trump answered press questions, and, bizarrely at times, offered reasons for his endorsement. "Look folks, we got to be serious. Look who we have out there. We have McCain he got beat in 2000--beat bad. The base doesn't like him. I like Rudy he's a good guy but let's be real he's a liberal, Huckabee also nice guy, family guy, but come on. Jeb Bush is tired. No more Bushes--" to with Sen. Frist defended Pres. Bush but admitted he agreed with Trump's 'low energy Jeb' characterization.

Money Race: Jeb Bush has outraised the field with $15 million. Frist and Giuliani each raised $7 million. McCain raised $4 million. Huckabee raised just under $1 million.

Notable Endorsements Since Last Posting:
Jeb Bush: Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), fmr Sen. Bob Dole (R-NC), Fmr VP Dan Quayle (R-IN), Rep. John Kasich (R-OH), Sen. Bob Smith (R-NH), businessman Steve Forbes, various Bush admin. officials.

Bill Frist: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), Rep. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Sen. George Allen (R-VA), Gov. Bob Taft (R-OH), various local elected officials in Iowa and South Carolina.

John McCain: Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH)

Rudy Giuliani: Sen. John E. Sununu (R-NH)

DEMOCRATS TO COME NEXT!

[Progressive]

GORE ENDORSES; FIELD SHIFTS

THE DEMOCRATS

July and August 2003

Gore Backs Dean:


In what is considered somewhat of a surprise move by many observers, former Vice President and 2000 Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore backed Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's bid for the presidency. In his endorsement of Dean, Gore stated that "Dean was the exact opposite of Bush, and that's a good thing!" He also knocked his vice presidential running mate Joe Lieberman. "Those whose campaigns are failing should give this run a second thought."

Gephardt Out, Backs Daschle

House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt has ended his presidential bid and instead is supporting Sen. Tom Daschle, who has earned substantial support from his Senate colleagues. After Gephardt's departure from the campaign, pressure has mounted on Sen. John Kerry, Sen. Joe Lieberman, and Sen. John Edwards to end their bids. Some insiders suggest that Democratic operatives and party elites want Dean defeated early on in the primaries.

Unruly Debate: A late August Fox News debate in South Carolina gained notoriety when numerous candidates walked off stage as Rep. Dennis Kucinich called them "war criminals" and expressed his support for completely defunding the Department of Defense. Sen. Kerry pushed back against the debate moderators and said, "I can't speak a sentence without being interrupted by you and you let Kucinich ramble on for minutes?"

An Anxious Party: Democratic officials are growing increasingly anxious that their candidates are not running strong enough campaigns to be able to compete with the Republican field.

Money Race: Tom Daschle has by far outraised the rest of the Democratic field with $36 million in donations, followed by $19 million for Howard Dean, $15 million for John Kerry, $11 million for Joe Lieberman, $6.4 million for Edwards, and under $1 million each for Moseley-Braun, Sharpton, and Kucinich. Gephardt has $9.4 million raised.

Stay tuned for a primer of fall 2003 including polls and interesting endorsements--plus--will another Democrat be recruited to save the party?