Does Clinton do better than Obama?
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  Does Clinton do better than Obama?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: In terms of the electoral vote.
#1
Yes, she beats his 2008 count.
#2
She is between his 2008 and 2012 count.
#3
No, she does worse than his 2012 count, but still wins.
#4
No, she will lose to Trump.
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Author Topic: Does Clinton do better than Obama?  (Read 485 times)
Wells
MikeWells12
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« on: July 16, 2016, 05:40:30 PM »
How well does Clinton do?
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Flake
Flo
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2016, 05:47:39 PM »
Definitely better than Obama 2012, I'm not sure about Obama 2008 but if Trump continues to fall and his campaign infrastructure is really as bad as many pundits say it is, then it'll be a landslide for Hillary.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2016, 05:52:14 PM »
Obama 2012+ NC
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2016, 05:56:24 PM »
I'll say... better than 2008, but not double digits. The map is 2008 + AZ - IN. GA is one of the closest states.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2016, 05:57:34 PM »

This, for now. It's definitely plausible that she could do a bit worse than Obama 2012 if things don't break in her favor, though if things really break in her favor, she could match or even beat Obama 2008.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2016, 06:12:53 PM »
Given Trump's current track record of creating his own drama that sinks his poll numbers, I'm relatively confident that a Clinton win will be at least better than 2012 in terms of PV and EC. Depending on how the next 2 months go, I wouldn't be surprised if she surpassed his 2008 win, even if just by a little. 2008 wasn't that big by historical standards, so it's not like it's some big, magical win that is unthinkable for her.

The only other issue I see is that after the last round of apportionment, the same 2008 map would come up 6 electoral votes short of what it had in 2008, due to state-by-state population changes. So she will need to do decently well to top Obama '08.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2016, 08:34:11 PM »
Option 2 is very likely in the electoral college, and also the most likely outcome in the popular vote.  However, I wouldn't be that surprised if her PV margin over Trump is greater than Obama's over McCain.  I could easily see something like Clinton 52-44 occurring. 
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2016, 09:32:16 PM »
Better than Obama 2012, worse than Obama 2008.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2016, 09:39:25 PM »
No, she'll lose to Trump outright.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2016, 09:55:18 PM »

This and possibly NE-02.
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Indy Texas
independentTX
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2016, 12:19:38 AM »

I wonder if Nebraska will get rid of its policy of awarding EVs by CD if they give a vote to a Democrat for a second time in eight years.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2016, 12:27:41 AM »
It's an open election after eight years of a Democrat in power. It favors the Republican. Whether Trump will pull of the win is open to debate, but the margin will be narrower than Obama in 2008 or 2012.
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Badger
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2016, 02:28:56 AM »
Quote from: Holmes on July 16, 2016, 05:56:24 PM
I'll say... better than 2008, but not double digits. The map is 2008 + AZ - IN. GA is one of the closest states.

About this, and falling not too short on double digits.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2016, 03:10:49 AM »
Quote from: Seriously? on July 17, 2016, 12:27:41 AM
It's an open election after eight years of a Democrat in power. It favors the Republican. Whether Trump will pull of the win is open to debate, but the margin will be narrower than Obama in 2008 or 2012.

Agreed.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2016, 03:30:21 AM »

Put $100 on it short of Clinton being indicted.

I'm serious.
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2016, 04:06:07 AM »
Quote from: Badger on July 17, 2016, 03:30:21 AM

Put $100 on it short of Clinton being indicted.

I'm serious.

http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/locations
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