CNN/ORC National: Clinton leads by 7 and 5

[heatcharger]

Clinton 49
Trump 42

Clinton 42
Trump 37
Johnson 13
Stein 5

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/17/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-cnn-poll/index.html

[Wells]

A high quality pollster that gives high quality results. Amazing!

[Mr. Morden]

fan/unfav % among RVs:

Pence 26/21% for +5%
Clinton 43/55% for -12%
Trump 39/59% for -20%

As usual, Johnson and Stein are getting most of their support from youngs:

under 45:
Clinton 42%
Trump 25%
Johnson 20%
Stein 8%

over 45:
Trump 47%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

[Tender Branson]

If we average today's 4 polls, Hillary leads by 3.8% in the 2-way match and by 5% in the 4-way.

Still very 2012-like.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

If we average today's 4 polls, Hillary leads by 3.8% in the 2-way match and by 5% in the 4-way.

Still very 2012-like.

Yepp. 3 of 4 polls were D "leaning" though, but yes, I would say, that Hillary have a 3-5 percentage lead right now.

[dspNY]

Johnson's not getting 13% and Stein isn't getting 5% so the 49-42 is the more accurate #

[Eraserhead]

Has Johnson ever been this high in a poll?

[amdcpus]

Has Johnson ever been this high in a poll?

He's been at 12% three times but this is his highest.

[Mr. Morden]

Has Johnson ever been this high in a poll?

He's actually climbed Mt. Everest, so he's been plenty high before.

[Gass3268]

This is actually a 2 point bump for Clinton since June.

[Xing]

Once again, good results today for Clinton nationally, but mediocre state results. Shows that the race isn't stable right now.

[BuckeyeNut]

Has Johnson ever been this high in a poll?

He's actually climbed Mt. Everest, so he's been plenty high before.

You went with Everest and not the fact he was CEO of a medical marijuana company?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This pops a bubble right in CBS's stupid face.

[IceSpear]

Great news!

[Seriously?]

D+5 with a slightly more I survey than the rest of the polls. Poll suggests 2012 Obama electorate.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

D+5 with a slightly more I survey than the rest of the polls. Poll suggests 2012 Obama electorate.

That's what I been saying lol. This election really reminds me of 2012.

[Likely Voter]

Before we go down that road, a reminder (with the exception or Rasmussen) polls don't 'model' Party ID, because (unlike demographics) it is a fluid thing and also not the same as party registration.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/unskewed-polls_b_1924293.html

[Seriously?]

D+5 with a slightly more I survey than the rest of the polls. Poll suggests 2012 Obama electorate.

That's what I been saying lol. This election really reminds me of 2012.

I was trying to get an idea of what the electorate is as the pollsters are finding. Everything over the weekend suggests somewhere between D+5 and D+8 with RV.

CNN/ORC was the only one with a ton of Indys (over 40%). Just notating and archiving. Not passing any judgments.

[Seriously?]

Before we go down that road, a reminder (with the exception or Rasmussen) polls don't 'model' Party ID, because (unlike demographics) it is a fluid thing and also not the same as party registration.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/unskewed-polls_b_1924293.html

That's not exactly true. If you look at the methodology of the CBS poll, they reweighed to get to their sample. The sample they got was slightly more Republican before they settled on a D+5

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-going-into-conventions-cbsnyt-poll/

(If you scroll down to the bottom of the Scribd document, it clearly shows how they reweighed the sample. As always, the devil is in the details.)

I think the Marist state polls begin with a D/R/I sample from either the SoS or exit poll numbers from 2012 cross-referencing the voter rolls and get their reconstituted self-identifieds from there in the states that have registered D and Rs.

The rest of these pollsters do not, unless otherwise stated.

[Likely Voter]

The reweighting with CBS could be for demographics, the amount of D,R,I may just be a side effect. Regardless, as noted in the article, obsessing over party ID has been a pointless endevour in past cycles. Here on the Atlas it became the same argument over and over again in every thread. I hope we can avoid that this time as it is tiresome.

[Seriously?]

I am not obsessing over D/R/I to skew or unskew anything.

My argument is simple: If the election ends up with a D+5 sample, Hillary! wins. If the consensus gets the electorate to around D+2 or D+3, Trump wins. It's really that simple. I am not concerned as much with breakdowns for sub-groups, etc. as they roll into that number at the end of the day.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I am not obsessing over D/R/I to skew or unskew anything.

My argument is simple: If the election ends up with a D+5 sample, Hillary! wins. If the consensus gets the electorate to around D+2 or D+3, Trump wins. It's really that simple. I am not concerned as much with breakdowns for sub-groups, etc. as they roll into that number at the end of the day.

Basically, this election will be about Trumps strongest base - NON-college-educated Whites, that stand for 30% and had very low turn-out 57% (vs 77% amond college-educated Whites).

If he'd trully energizez them to go and vote, he might win.

[Likely Voter]

This article makes the point...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/sep/27/news/la-pn-pollsters-weight-surveys-20120927

So yes if we see a polling party ID trend towards R it could indicate a Trump win, but that would be reflected in the over-all horserace number anyway. So again, party ID is an interesting number and should be shown. But it shouldn't be 'forced' by the pollster model and it shouldn't be the metric by which a poll should be judged. General trackrecord and methodology is a better guide (sample size, do they phone mobile phones, do they offer Spanish, etc.)

[Chaddyr23]

Clinton 49
Trump 42

Clinton 42
Trump 37
Johnson 13
Stein 5

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/17/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-cnn-poll/index.html

YESSSSS KWEEN

[sparkey]

Johnson's still not to the magical 15% that will get him into the debates, but it's starting to look plausible, at least.