The Brexit Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2024, 02:16:42 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Economics (Moderator: Torie)
  The Brexit Thread
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: The Brexit Thread  (Read 1244 times)
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 17, 2016, 10:41:46 AM »

It's been over three weeks now but because I'm that kind of nerd and because it involves the country I'm closest to other than my own home, I'm still mulling over the result of the referendum and its implications. Hopefully now that we are somewhat away from THE PANIC of the first few post-June 23rd days, there is room to discuss it more calmly and with greater insight. I think up till now far too much has been discussed about the political implications (the horse race is the least important thing, guys) and little about the economic implications and what it might mean for trade. As we have one or two posters who are quite knowledgeable on these issues, I've decided to post here something I wrote on our sister forum, for your interests. This represents my understanding of the situation - anyone who knows more please correct me or elaborate. I really want to understand here, not make hot takes (ok, some hot takes... see the final sentence).

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Al has also alerted me that agriculture is a devolved responsibility in the UK, so any post-CAP arrangement will be left to the four individual governments with the House of Commons representing England. It's quite plausible therefore to imagine a situation where farmers in England aren't subsidized at all, while those are in Wales and Northern Ireland are (Don't know about Scotland). This obviously would have problematic implications for the UK.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,848


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2016, 01:55:51 PM »

Al has also alerted me that agriculture is a devolved responsibility in the UK, so any post-CAP arrangement will be left to the four individual governments with the House of Commons representing England. It's quite plausible therefore to imagine a situation where farmers in England aren't subsidized at all, while those are in Wales and Northern Ireland are (Don't know about Scotland). This obviously would have problematic implications for the UK.

And it would have an effect on the budgets of the devolved administrations. The CAP payments to Scottish farmers was about 620 million in 2015. Politically they would be in a stronger position to ask for that 'from Westminster' more than the other nations given the result of the referendum.

As you hint though, being in the EU was in many ways a bizarre form of 'protectionism' for British industry and trade. Developing markets can now 'dump' disproportionately in the UK off the back of trade deals while the net benefit to the UK would be less tangible for the consumer or the worker.
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2016, 02:13:06 PM »

Al has also alerted me that agriculture is a devolved responsibility in the UK, so any post-CAP arrangement will be left to the four individual governments with the House of Commons representing England. It's quite plausible therefore to imagine a situation where farmers in England aren't subsidized at all, while those are in Wales and Northern Ireland are (Don't know about Scotland). This obviously would have problematic implications for the UK.

And it would have an effect on the budgets of the devolved administrations. The CAP payments to Scottish farmers was about 620 million in 2015. Politically they would be in a stronger position to ask for that 'from Westminster' more than the other nations given the result of the referendum.

As you hint though, being in the EU was in many ways a bizarre form of 'protectionism' for British industry and trade. Developing markets can now 'dump' disproportionately in the UK off the back of trade deals while the net benefit to the UK would be less tangible for the consumer or the worker.

Presumably further demands will be made by the devolved parliaments (more than they are already, that is) to expand their fiscal capabilities and devolve certain tax issues. As you said, in the cases of Scotland (even excluding the option of independence) and Northern Ireland given the referendum result, this will become difficult for Westminster to avoid.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,848


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2016, 02:44:56 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2016, 02:47:13 PM by afleitch »

Presumably further demands will be made by the devolved parliaments (more than they are already, that is) to expand their fiscal capabilities and devolve certain tax issues. As you said, in the cases of Scotland (even excluding the option of independence) and Northern Ireland given the referendum result, this will become difficult for Westminster to avoid.

They will twist in every direction to stop that happening. The exponential rise and rise (and reliance) on the financial strength of London is something that evidently needs to be stopped. Or at least challenged in some way by other centres in the UK but politicians are frightened to their core about what happens if that particular top stops spinning.

They won't devolve anything meaningful from London (which arguably is the part of England least in need of devolution but the only part that effectively has it) So they won't give Scotland control of corporation tax because they would clearly collapse it and undercut (while Northern Ireland has this, it doesn't count for reasons that you will know all too well)

For as long as 'England' can lay claim to the strength of London (despite demographically, electorally etc being increasingly removed from it as a point of reference) then the perpetual narrative that England 'subsidises' the rest of the UK can be maintained. That keeps parts of England that have, make and contribute f-ck all to the economy in a sense of elevated self importance and reduce the need for any local devolution (because who wants more politicians right?). Lose that and England will turn on itself. And that will end the Union.

Unfortunately that was all fine until the EU referendum exposed these creeping divisions a good ten/twenty years before they should have. London looked at England and England looked at London and they don't like what they see. Everyone needed the EU, the market, movement of people etc. London understood that but the rest of England didn't. As you rightly pointed out, many nations may balk at any deal that feeds almost exclusively into the City of London, particularly if their own nations are structured in a more fluid, federal basis without an over-reaching financial 'heart' (that they can't retrospectively construct)

So you have to start dismantling the City. Or at least setting up domestic outposts in order to make trade deals more favourable.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,696
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2016, 06:43:27 PM »

The exponential rise and rise (and reliance) on the financial strength of London is something that evidently needs to be stopped

Then I have some good news for you: Brexit ultimately means that this is going to happen now, no matter what. The only question is the timescale. London will always be an important financial centre, but just as there was a time before it was dominant in Europe (not that long ago actually!) so there will be a time after, that's always the way with finance, and...
Logged
Weiner/Holder
Rookie
**
Posts: 46
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2016, 01:16:47 AM »

I applaud them for their independence but other countries may not want to do business and trade with them now.  In today's world things are too globalized for protectionism. Hopefully England will do alright.
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2016, 07:51:21 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2016, 08:10:25 PM by Tetro Kornbluth »

Ok did some research - approximately to pay back the lost CAP payments out of its own coffers, the NI assembly would have to re-allocate between 3-3.5% of the entire Stormont budget to do so. Good Luck...

EDIT: Actually more once you consider a significant proportion of NI's budget comes from the EU.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2016, 12:22:51 AM »

Ok did some research - approximately to pay back the lost CAP payments out of its own coffers, the NI assembly would have to re-allocate between 3-3.5% of the entire Stormont budget to do so. Good Luck...

EDIT: Actually more once you consider a significant proportion of NI's budget comes from the EU.

Another reason to reunify with the Republic.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.03 seconds with 12 queries.