Put a Rating on the U.S. Senate for 2016 - Summer

[Maxwell]

I've been skeptical, but I'm ready to move beyond toss-up to Lean D.

While Indiana has moved sharply to the Democrats direction, I believe Democrats are also losing their shot in Florida as Patrick Murphy is being exposed as an empty suit even compared to MARCO RUBIO.

[Xing]

Toss-Up/Tilt D, simply because there are now many races where Republicans have an incredibly tenuous advantage (OH, PA, FL, AZ, NC, IN, and MO.) It's more likely than not that Democrats will manage to flip at least one of those seats.

[Kingpoleon]

Tossup. They need five seats, and besides Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, they have to hold Nevada and win FL, NH, and IL. That barely gives them five.

Indiana, Arizona, and Missouri all should get more investment in case Kirk holds on.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D, right now we're looking at pickups in NH, OH, IN, IL, WI, AZ, and quite possibly FL (reserving judgement on Murphy until at least a few weeks after the primary), and there's definitely a chance that either PA or MO could flip with a little luck.  

[The Other Castro]

I would have moved this to Tilt D or Toss-Up after Rubio reentered, but Bayh has kept my rating at Lean D still.

[Free Bird]

Toss-Up to Tilt R.

Democrats have Wisconsin and Illinois, in all likelihood. Those are the easiest pickings. Let's be generous and give Indiana. They still need two of NH, FL, PA, and OH, PLUS they have to hold NV. Toomey will probably be fine, and I just don't "feel" like Portman will lose. Florida I'd call Tilt R, so even if they get NH, they'd still need one more to be safe, and that's risky, considering that the winner of NV will probably be the same party as the winner of the Presidency.

[Xing]

Toss-Up/Tilt D, simply because there are now many races where Republicans have an incredibly tenuous advantage (OH, PA, FL, AZ, NC, IN, and MO.) It's more likely than not that Democrats will manage to flip at least one of those seats.

Then why does your prediction show the Republicans holding the Senate?

My prediction is based on how things look right now. It's all I can do right now, since I can't predict the future, or guess which way which races will move. Why does your prediction have Kirk winning, while you consider the race "Lean D"?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Pure Tossup right now. I'd bet on Dem pickups in IL, WI and NH (the latter still being a tossup but Hassan is definitely favored). Still waiting on IN for more data, and it looks like Republicans are just slightly ahead in FL, NC, AZ, MO and PA. NV and OH are going to be the seats that decide Senate control, IMO.

[ElectionsGuy]

Toss-Up.

I'm still doing another thread at the end of the month though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Toss-Up to Tilt R.

Democrats have Wisconsin and Illinois, in all likelihood. Those are the easiest pickings. Let's be generous and give Indiana. They still need two of NH, FL, PA, and OH, PLUS they have to hold NV. Toomey will probably be fine, and I just don't "feel" like Portman will lose. Florida I'd call Tilt R, so even if they get NH, they'd still need one more to be safe, and that's risky, considering that the winner of NV will probably be the same party as the winner of the Presidency.

Generous would be giving the Democrats IL, WI, NH, OH, FL, PA, AZ, MO, IN, and holding NV.  A Republican winning statewide in NV with Trump on the top of the ticket is about as likely as a Democrat winning statewide in OH in 2010 (i.e. it's simply not happening, period).  Indiana and New Hampshire are both leaning Democratic, so that's already four seats.  We could call Indiana a toss-up if we wanted to be generous to the Republicans, but there's really no evidence that Bayh doesn't have the double-digit lead that Democratic internals were suggesting (for one thing, he never would've gotten in unless he thought it was a slam-dunk).

Speaking as someone who lives in Ohio and has been following the Senate race pretty closely, that one is going to be extremely close either way, but between Trump, Strickland's truly bipartisan popularity in Appalachia, the fact that the Presidential race will boost African-American turnout (which was a problem for Strickland in 2010), Portman being so anonymous that he may have lower name recognition than Strickland (seriously, no one here knows who Portman even is), and the fact that the race is basically tied right now despite the fact that I've been seeing literally about 5-8 Portman ads a week for a while now compared to 1-2 ads for Strickland (an advantage Portman won't have once we get closer to the election), I suspect Strickland will narrowly pull out a win.  

In Arizona, McCain has been running a pretty weak campaign while Kirkpatrick has been running a surprisingly strong one (complete with what is easily the best ad I've seen this cycle from a Senate candidate).  This is also going to be McCain's first competitive general election in Arizona since...ever and he isn't nearly as popular as he used to be (for one thing, he has no cross-party appeal).  And let's not forget that Trump is on the ballot  I don't see how McCain wins re-election, although this race is still a toss-up.  

We won't really know much about Florida until we're a good 3-4 weeks past the primary.  Missouri will be pretty close and while I think Blunt will skate by, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him lose.  Toomey would probably be looking at a 7-8 point victory in a normal year, but it's already become clear that Trump is really dragging him down.  Right now, I think Toomey is probably looking at a 3-4 point victory (he's a pretty strong incumbent, McGinty is a weak B-lister at best, and PA has a strong Republican party), but if there really is a Democratic wave then Toomey might be screwed.

[smoltchanov]

Tossup

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Malcolm X, why don't you consider North Carolina competitive? I realize that Ross isn't the best candidate, but remember what happened in 2008.

I think the Republicans will be forced to spend some money in North Carolina and Iowa, but I don't think Democrats have a realistic chance of actually winning either seat (especially NC).  IIRC, Burr is polling well enough that if most of the Republican-leaning undecideds end up vote for him (which they will), he shouldn't be more than 1-2% away from 50% (he might even be over it).  And he'll obviously get some undecideds, even if they break for Ross overall.  The numbers just aren't there right now.  I'd also add that Hagen didn't really win in 2008, so much as Dole lost.  The "Godless" ad really hurt Dole and was a big reason for her defeat (along with an unusually Democratic electorate in NC that year).  

On the other hand, I think Vilsack would probably have beaten Grassley this cycle were he the nominee.  As it is, Judge will make it far closer than it should be (probably an 8-12 point Grassley victory).  The Garland stuff definitely did some serious, lasting damage to Grassley's brand with both Democrats (he seems to no longer have much cross-over appeal) and independents.  Luckily for Republicans, Judge is almost certainly not a strong enough candidate to take advantage of this.  Grassley would be wise not to run for re-election in 2022 though imo.

[Vega]

Likely D. The Republicans are juggling too many seats, and there are Senate seats (like Arkansas) that are simmering.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely D. The Republicans are juggling too many seats, and there are Senate seats (like Arkansas) that are simmering.

lol

[Del Tachi]

Pure Tossup.

Right now I'd peg Dems to pickup NH, IL, WI and (maybe) IN. 

[/]

Toss-Up to Tilt R.

Democrats have Wisconsin and Illinois, in all likelihood. Those are the easiest pickings. Let's be generous and give Indiana. They still need two of NH, FL, PA, and OH, PLUS they have to hold NV. Toomey will probably be fine, and I just don't "feel" like Portman will lose. Florida I'd call Tilt R, so even if they get NH, they'd still need one more to be safe, and that's risky, considering that the winner of NV will probably be the same party as the winner of the Presidency.

XD

[Higgs]

Lean R.

[RINO Tom]

Pure Tossup. Most likely path for Democrats seems NH (Safe D)+ IL (Lean D)+ WI (Lean/Tilt D) + IN (Tossup). Republicans are definitely favored in FL, NC, AZ and PA.

NV/MO/OH are Tossups.

Even if you think Ayotte is totally screwed, there's no way in hell she has less of a shot than Johnson.  You're just being dumb.

[MT Treasurer]

Pure Tossup. Most likely path for Democrats seems NH (Safe D)+ IL (Lean D)+ WI (Lean/Tilt D) + IN (Tossup). Republicans are definitely favored in FL, NC, AZ and PA.

NV/MO/OH are Tossups.

Even if you think Ayotte is totally screwed, there's no way in hell she has less of a shot than Johnson.  You're just being dumb.

Stop acting as if Wisconsin is Vermont, lol. I know that this race leans Democratic right now but Republicans have had much success in statewide races there in the past six years (Heck, they even won the WI Supreme Court race this year). Also, WI IS a battleground state and Republicans have a high floor in the state, so no way Johnson loses by more than 5.

[Senator Cris]

Pure Tossup. Most likely path for Democrats seems NH (Safe D)+ IL (Lean D)+ WI (Lean/Tilt D) + IN (Tossup). Republicans are definitely favored in FL, NC, AZ and PA.

NV/MO/OH are Tossups.

Even if you think Ayotte is totally screwed, there's no way in hell she has less of a shot than Johnson.  You're just being dumb.

Stop acting as if Wisconsin is Vermont, lol. I know that this race leans Democratic right now but Republicans have had much success in statewide races there in the past six years (Heck, they even won the WI Supreme Court race this year). Also, WI IS a battleground state and Republicans have a high floor in the state, so no way Johnson loses by more than 5.

I think it's the same for Ayotte. I really don't see Ayotte losing by more than 5 points.
I think Johnson losing by >5% is more likely than Ayotte losing by >5%.

[Gass3268]

Easily Lean D. IL, NH, and WI are close to locks right now. NH and WI could be close, but the fundamentals there are really hard for the Republicans. Kirk is a as good as Blanched however. Democrats will totally get a couple from AZ, FL, IA, IN, MO, NC, and PA. There are just too many competitive states that Republicans have to defend. In many ways it is a reverse of 2014, some seats are going to slip through at the end a lot like AK, CO, and NC did.

[RINO Tom]

Pure Tossup. Most likely path for Democrats seems NH (Safe D)+ IL (Lean D)+ WI (Lean/Tilt D) + IN (Tossup). Republicans are definitely favored in FL, NC, AZ and PA.

NV/MO/OH are Tossups.

Even if you think Ayotte is totally screwed, there's no way in hell she has less of a shot than Johnson.  You're just being dumb.

Stop acting as if Wisconsin is Vermont, lol. I know that this race leans Democratic right now but Republicans have had much success in statewide races there in the past six years (Heck, they even won the WI Supreme Court race this year). Also, WI IS a battleground state and Republicans have a high floor in the state, so no way Johnson loses by more than 5.

I didn't say WI is VT; saying a state whose elections are always close is like VT is very, very stupid (look in the mirror now).  Are you saying Republicans don't have a high floor in NH?  Even in your fantasy that NH is super inelastic and unwinnable for Republicans, the GOP has a pretty high floor.  Poll after poll shows Johnson doing worse than Ayotte, so you're pretty much asking us to ignore those and take the word of an anonymous Internet message board poster with a clear and known bias.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R.


Let's take a look at the competitive races:

AZ: McCain, if nominated, will very likely get reelected
CO: Democratic incumbent Bennett favored to win reelection
FL: Since Rubio jumped in, I'd rate this race as Lean R though FL will likely vote for Hillary nevertheless
IL: Leans D. Possible/likely pick-up
NH: Pure toss-up, could go either way
NV: Pure toss-up, could go either way (possible GOP pick-up)
OH: Pure toss-up, could go either way though I bet Portman will win
PA: Toomey as of now leading, reelection looks likely
WI: Johnson is toast, very likely Dem pick-up.

So let’s say Dems keep CO and NV, pick up IL and WI, theys still have to unseat Ayotte and Portman (NH and OH). That would lead to a 50/50 tie; Dem majority with Hillary’s VP tie-breaking vote.

[Gass3268]

Lean R.


Let's take a look at the competitive races:

AZ: McCain, if nominated, will very likely get reelected
CO: Democratic incumbent Bennett favored to win reelection
FL: Since Rubio jumped in, I'd rate this race as Lean R though FL will likely vote for Hillary nevertheless
IL: Leans D. Possible/likely pick-up
NH: Pure toss-up, could go either way
NV: Pure toss-up, could go either way (possible GOP pick-up)
OH: Pure toss-up, could go either way though I bet Portman will win
PA: Toomey as of now leading, reelection looks likely
WI: Johnson is toast, very likely Dem pick-up.

So let’s say Dems keep CO and NV, pick up IL and WI, theys still have to unseat Ayotte and Portman (NH and OH). That would lead to a 50/50 tie; Dem majority with Hillary’s VP tie-breaking vote.

You are missing Indiana.

[Kingpoleon]

Oh, no doubt the GOP has a high floor in NH, but their ceiling is also below 50% (Scott Brown 2014). The race will be within 5 points for sure, and my guess is that Climbing Maggie will win by 3 in the end, maybe even 2.  Ayotte would have won in ANY other somewhat competitive state, even Maine.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2010