Put a rating on the U.S. House for 2016 - Summer
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  Put a rating on the U.S. House for 2016 - Summer		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: How would you rate either partys chance at the U.S. Senate?
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Toss-up		  
#5
Lean D		  
#6
Likely D		  
#7
Safe D		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: Put a rating on the U.S. House for 2016 - Summer  (Read 700 times)
Maxwell
mah519
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E: -6.45, S: -6.96

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« on: July 17, 2016, 01:12:12 PM »
I'm sticking with Likely R - while some races have moved, I think the House is too gerrymandered to be moved to the Democrats side and Democrats did not recruit strong enough in some worthwhile seats.
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Xing
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2016, 01:15:12 PM »
Yeah, Likely R. Democrats need a Trump implosion/blue tsunami to take back the House.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2016, 01:33:35 PM »
Safe R at this point. The House is gerrymandered badly enough that Democrats can't control the House without a massive Clinton landslide.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2016, 01:40:05 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2016, 02:34:14 PM by Malcolm X »
Likely R.  We're probably looking at something in the neighborhood of a 20 seat gain, but the numbers just aren't there, at least not right now.  It's not impossible if things get significantly worse for the Republicans (and if anyone can drag the party down with them, it's Trump), but I suspect the Democrats blew there chance by punting seats like NJ-2, NJ-3, IL-13, IN-2, NC-9, VA-2, PA-6, OH-6, etc.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2016, 02:07:13 PM »
Likely R on the cusp of Lean R. A lot can still happen between now and November and I wouldn't underestimate the effect of Trump's fundraising drought for Congressional races.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2016, 02:37:47 PM »
Likely R. Democrats may easily win 12-15 seats, even 20 if everything will go in their favor, but 30?Huh
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2016, 05:36:49 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 17, 2016, 02:28:21 PM
Likely R. Much closer to Safe R than Leans R, though.

This. Dems really dropped the ball here by not getting a lot of viable challengers as wave insurance.
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Kevin
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2016, 06:27:36 PM »
Likely R (Even with a Trump Implosion)

Hillary is too weak of a candidate to have significant coattails (at least when it comes to the House)
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Vega
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2016, 07:21:15 PM »
Likely R, which really pisses me off.
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Higgs
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2016, 08:47:35 PM »
Safe R.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2016, 08:34:06 AM »
Dems will gain a bunch of seats, get things close, but come about 20ish seats short.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2016, 11:46:25 PM »
Republicans will win the PV by five to eight points. Lean R.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2016, 01:44:47 AM »
Quote from: Committeeman Kingpoleon on July 19, 2016, 11:46:25 PM
Republicans will win the PV by five to eight points. Lean R.

Is this under the assumption Trump wins or something? Because it seems unlikely Republicans would even win the PV at all if he loses. As it stands now, virtually every generic congressional poll has either been tied or majority Democratic for over a year now. The RCP average is 2% and the HuffPost is 8.3%, but huff includes Internet polls.

Given the presidential and generic polls, Republicans best outlook right now seems to lose the House PV slightly, ŕ la 2012, and at worst, lose the PV in a 2006-style landslide, depending on how you want to interpret the data.
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2016, 01:54:02 AM »
Quote from: Committeeman Kingpoleon on July 19, 2016, 11:46:25 PM
Republicans will win the PV by five to eight points. Lean R.

?

Republicans won by 5.7% in 2014...
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swf541
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« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2016, 10:18:39 AM »
Lean R and by that I think the GOP keeps it but loses 20 some seats i think in the end.
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