Who should Democrats nominate under these two scenarios?

[Crumpets]

It's January 2020...

Scenario 1: The Trump presidency has been a disaster. Democrats retake the House in 2018 and gain a seat in the Senate. Trump is wide-eyed and clearly overwhelmed, he rarely makes public appearances and is booed down and heckled when he does. Several cabinet members have resigned or been impeached and unemployment is reaching upper single digits. Polls show all Democrats, everyone from Warren to Webb to Cuomo up nearly twenty points nation-wide, up double-digits in Texas and Florida, and set to pick up about 7 seats in the Senate. They are free to pick whomever they like, and are fairly certain that no matter who it is or what their policies are, they will win handily.

Scenario 2: It's morning in America! the unemployment rate and uninsured rate are at 4% nation-wide. ISIL is vanquished, poverty is at an all-time low and race relations are at least perceived as having improved. Trump's approval rating is in the upper 60s, and polls are showing states like Illinois and Delaware to be competitive. The Supreme Court has overturned the Voting Rights Act entirely and defeat seems all but assured for the Democrats. They are looking for someone to cut their losses down-ballot without wasting the candidacy of someone who might have a better chance in the future.

[Blair]

1. Kamala Harris/ Al Franken

2. Tim Kaine/Cory Booker

[Lambsbread]

Scenario 1: Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris

Scenario 2: Andrew Cuomo (so he'll lose and go away forever)

[dax00]

It's funny, because those who should run for scenario 1 the DNC would most likely select for scenario 2 or never support, and those who should run in scenario 2 the DNC would more likely select for scenario 1 (but definitely support).

[Blackacre]

Scenario 1: Yeah, Warren or Franken, or Sanders or Bandwin. Don't take that hypothetical polling lead for granted, instead run someone from the Midwest with a connection to the WCWs that gave 2016 to Trump. Run as a reverse Reagan, offering an uplifting, hopeful message that appeals to everybody while still being very liberal on policy. Explicitly run on empathy and taking everybody in the country seriously, and include a Clintoneque (bill) I Feel Your Pain Speech. Then, go nuts.

Scenario 2: ....how. Anyway, there are two options. The first is to run, yeah, Cuomo as a sacrificial lamb. Alternatively, run Rep. Ellison or Sanders or a far-left liberal with ties to BLM and Occupy. You'll get crushed, but hey, so was Goldwater.

[LLR]

Scenario 1: Kamala, Franken, or Duckworth

Scenario 2: Heinrich or Bullock

Somewhere in between: Kaine, Klobuchar, or Booker

[Figueira]

Scenario 1: Whichever vaguely progressive person looks like they would be the best President. Maybe Warren, maybe Harris, I'm not sure yet.

Scenario 2: Cuomo, to discredit his wing of the party.

[Vega]

Scenario 1: Sanders/de Blasio or Sanders/Gabbard

Scenario 2: Heinrich/Gillibrand or Kaine/Heinrich

[Mr. Smith]

Scenario 1 (and the most likely): Literally any unapologetic progressive populist, preferably young for the Millennials


Scenario 2: Cory Booker, least then black turnout will likely return to Obama levels and make the Sunbelt competitive

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie or the like for sure for option 1.
Option 2 is implying that the Democratic candidate would have no chance. But how many people really thought Trump had a chance? Hi, Keith Ellison.

[Beet]

They should nominate the same person in both scenarios, since electability isn't a factor in either.

[Senator-elect Spark]

1: Harris or Sanders
2: Cuomo

[Soonerdem]

1: Harris or Sanders
2: Cuomo

This with Warren in for Harris

[Boston Bread]

1. Go with a very liberal candidate that is able to work well with a Dem Congress. Someone like Warren would be great.

2. The big danger would be Democrats permanently losing the Midwest and northern white working class voters if they don't at least try. Nominate a populist outsider like Bullock. He will surely go down, but try to keep losses in the rust belt containable, with the expectation that losses in the suburban vote will not be permanent. That way Democrats will still have a foundation in the rust belt in 2020.

[Virginiá]

1. Go with a very liberal candidate that is able to work well with a Dem Congress. Someone like Warren would be great.

Given that the Democratic Party is heavily reliant on Millennials, I would fully expect the party to try and recruit Warren to run in 2020 - If they are smart about this, anyhow. She is exactly the kind of candidate Millennials would turn out for, and her background / genuine character appeal make her a good candidate for the working class.

Or, I dunno.

[NHI]

1. Go with a very liberal candidate that is able to work well with a Dem Congress. Someone like Warren would be great.

2. The big danger would be Democrats permanently losing the Midwest and northern white working class voters if they don't at least try. Nominate a populist outsider like Bullock. He will surely go down, but try to keep losses in the rust belt containable, with the expectation that losses in the suburban vote will not be permanent. That way Democrats will still have a foundation in the rust belt in 2020.

[Figueira]

Scenario 1: Whichever vaguely progressive person looks like they would be the best President. Maybe Warren, maybe Harris, I'm not sure yet.

Scenario 2: Cuomo, to discredit his wing of the party.

This comment was rather short-sighted of me and I apologize. In scenario 2, it's probably best to nominate a candidate that will at least keep the party alive, and I think Booker would be the best person for that, as much as I'd hate to make him a sacrificial lamb.

[Hammy]

1. Go with a very liberal candidate that is able to work well with a Dem Congress. Someone like Warren would be great.

Given that the Democratic Party is heavily reliant on Millennials, I would fully expect the party to try and recruit Warren to run in 2020 - If they are smart about this, anyhow. She is exactly the kind of candidate Millennials would turn out for, and her background / genuine character appeal make her a good candidate for the working class.

Or, I dunno.

The question though, would those voters see Warren as having sold out for Clinton, and see her in the same light?

[TomC]

Brown
Brown

[pbrower2a]

Scenario #1: Just about any Democrat will win. That the 2018 election has been a disaster fro Republicans demonstrates that the fears of many Americans that Donald Trump would dismantle democracy have not come to pass. He has provoked mass discontent that has so rent America that even in deep-red areas a populist resurgence has caused people to turn against the Great Poseur.

Scenario #2: If it is Morning in America it is a morning in which the 12-hour workday is the norm. Any Democrat is likely to be the New Walter Mondale in the popular votes, but manages to win just over 100 electoral votes because of California, New York, Illinois, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, and several other states with fewer than ten electoral votes. The  American political system might not be democratic, but it needs a show of contention. But the Democrats have never been free to organize, so they have about as much chance as the minor parties in the old DDR or the minor parties in the PRC today.