Axiom Strategies/Remington Group(R): Trump leads in 7 of 8 battleground counties

[Seriously?]

Take the source with a grain of salt as Remington is run by Jeff Roe, a Cruz supporter and a Republican operative, but data points are data points.

Hillsborough County, FL: Clinton 40% / Trump 43% (Trump +3) (2012: Obama +7)
Jefferson County, CO: Clinton 39% / Trump 40% (Trump +1) (2012: Obama +5)
Watauga County, NC: Clinton 39% / Trump 46% (Trump +7) (2012: Romney +3)
Sandusky County, OH: Clinton 31% / Trump 42% (Trump +11) (2012: Obama +2)
Luzerne County, PA: Clinton 32% / Trump 55% (Trump +23) (2012: Obama +5)
Loudon County, VA: Clinton 44% / Trump 41% (Clinton +3) (2012: Obama +5)
Washoe County, NV: Clinton 36% / Trump 48% (Trump +12) (2012: Obama +4)

Likely voters; MOE +/- 2.35% to 4.2% depending on the poll.

http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/

[Classic Conservative]

Seems resonable. Fits in with a Trump bump.

[/]

lol

[Ronnie]

I would not be surprised if Luzerne tips to Trump, but he's definitely not up by 23 points there.

[Kevin]

I would not be surprised if Luzerne tips to Trump, but he's definitely not up by 23 points there.

Why not?

It's an overwelmingly white and very working class county in the Northeast. Which is Trump's core demographic.

[Seriously?]

I would not be surprised if Luzerne tips to Trump, but he's definitely not up by 23 points there.

Why not?

It's an overwelmingly white and very working class county in the Northeast. Which is Trump's core demographic.

It would be an R +28 swing from 2012, which seems very unlikely.

But Luzerne is ground zero for "Reagan Republicans" or "Trump Democrats" or whatever you want to call it and a large swing there is probably key to Trump taking PA.

[Ljube]

Interesting results. This kind of poll is better for gaging Trump's unique appeal, than national, or even state polls.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

But Luzerne is ground zero for "Reagan Republicans"

...no.

[Seriously?]

But Luzerne is ground zero for "Reagan Republicans"

...no.

Of course it is. 88% white, only $45K median income, predominately Polish and German. If you want to argue with me over semantics, fine. But this is your core Trump demographic.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

But Luzerne is ground zero for "Reagan Republicans"

...no.

Of course it is. 88% white, only $45K median income, predominately Polish and German. If you want to argue with me over semantics, fine. But this is your core Trump demographic.

I do want to argue with you over semantics, because the (completely and demonstrably false) idea that places like this were particularly strong for Reagan advances a really damaging historiography of the Reagan era, which in turn informs really damaging policies and rhetoric today.

[john cage bubblegum]

Seems resonable. Fits in with a Trump bump.

These county results (with the exception of *maybe* Loudon County) would suggest a significant Trump national win, not at all what other recent polling has indicated, besides that last Rasmussen poll.

[Classic Conservative]

Seems resonable. Fits in with a Trump bump.

These county results (with the exception of *maybe* Loudon County) would suggest a significant Trump national win, not at all what other recent polling has indicated, besides that last Rasmussen poll.

I don't agree with the margins they are a few points to favorable for; around 4-5 points. But they aren't wrong just a little to favorable.

[cinyc]

But Luzerne is ground zero for "Reagan Republicans"

...no.

Of course it is. 88% white, only $45K median income, predominately Polish and German. If you want to argue with me over semantics, fine. But this is your core Trump demographic.

I do want to argue with you over semantics, because the (completely and demonstrably false) idea that places like this were particularly strong for Reagan advances a really damaging historiography of the Reagan era, which in turn informs really damaging policies and rhetoric today.

Reagan won Luzerne County in both 1980 and 1984.  Its population is older (median age 41; almost 20% over 65) and whiter than average.  If the mythical Reagan Democrat exists, Wilkes Barre and environs is a good place to start looking for them.

[Seriously?]

But Luzerne is ground zero for "Reagan Republicans"

...no.

Of course it is. 88% white, only $45K median income, predominately Polish and German. If you want to argue with me over semantics, fine. But this is your core Trump demographic.

I do want to argue with you over semantics, because the (completely and demonstrably false) idea that places like this were particularly strong for Reagan advances a really damaging historiography of the Reagan era, which in turn informs really damaging policies and rhetoric today.

Except, the narrative fits for Luzerne County, specifically. It's not neither completely nor demonstrably false. It's actually demonstrably true.

Luzerne County from 1976-2012 (via Atlas records). Note the three times that Luzerne went R.   
1976    D+10   Carter
1980    R+6           Reagan
1984    R+9           Reagan
1988    Even           Bush I (Bush by .4%)
1992    D+6           Clinton
1996    D+15   Clinton
2000    D+8           Bush II
2004    D+3           Bush II
2008    D+8           Obama
2012    D+5           Obama

[Likely Voter]

Moving thread. Polls of geographic or demographic subsets go in general thread. Polling forum for national and state polls only.

[Sorenroy]

For those of you wondering, here are the 2012 results (and the change from then):

Hillsborough County, FL: Obama 53% / Romney 46% (+7D -> +3R, +10R)
Jefferson County, CO: Obama 51% / Romney 46% (+5D -> +1R, +6R)
Watauga County, NC: Obama 47% / Romney 50% (+3R -> +7%, +4R)
Sandusky County, OH: Obama 50% / Romney 47% (+3D -> +11R, +14R)
Luzerne County, PA: Obama 52% / Romney 47% (+5D -> +23R, +28R)
Loudon County, VA: Obama 52% / Romney 47% (+5D -> +3D, +2R)
Washoe County, NV: Obama 51% / Romney 47% (+4D -> +12R, +16R)

If the swing represents the swing of the entire state we would have the following (difference from past three poll average, difference from poll-plus model):

Colorodo — +5D -> +1R (+11R, +5R)
Florida — +1D -> +9R (+9R, +9R)
Nevada — +6D -> +10R (+12R, +12R)
North Carolina — +2R -> +6R (+8R, +5R)
Ohio — +3D -> +11R (+12R, +11R)
Pennsylvania — +5D -> +23R (+24R, +25R)
Virginia — +4D -> +2D (+4R, +1R)

Assuming none of the other states change (which, if these polls are right, they probably go more R), Trump wins 288-250.

This is an unrated pollster and those swings are all garbage.

(this took way too long)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Note the three times that Luzerne went R.   

And still voted noticeably to the left of the nation as a whole. And, in two cases, to the left of Pennsylvania as a whole. Good to know that constitutes being 'particularly strong for Reagan'. I suppose my area is full of ~Reagan Democrats~ too?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Dang, VA really is not liking Trump.

[Indy Texas]

But Luzerne is ground zero for "Reagan Republicans"

...no.

Of course it is. 88% white, only $45K median income, predominately Polish and German. If you want to argue with me over semantics, fine. But this is your core Trump demographic.

I do want to argue with you over semantics, because the (completely and demonstrably false) idea that places like this were particularly strong for Reagan advances a really damaging historiography of the Reagan era, which in turn informs really damaging policies and rhetoric today.

Reagan won Luzerne County in both 1980 and 1984.  Its population is older (median age 41; almost 20% over 65) and whiter than average.  If the mythical Reagan Democrat exists, Wilkes Barre and environs is a good place to start looking for them.

I'm pretty sure anyone who could ever have been described as a Reagan Democrat can now be found in the cemetery or urn where they have been interred.

[Dr. Arch]

But Luzerne is ground zero for "Reagan Republicans"

...no.

Of course it is. 88% white, only $45K median income, predominately Polish and German. If you want to argue with me over semantics, fine. But this is your core Trump demographic.

I do want to argue with you over semantics, because the (completely and demonstrably false) idea that places like this were particularly strong for Reagan advances a really damaging historiography of the Reagan era, which in turn informs really damaging policies and rhetoric today.

Reagan won Luzerne County in both 1980 and 1984.  Its population is older (median age 41; almost 20% over 65) and whiter than average.  If the mythical Reagan Democrat exists, Wilkes Barre and environs is a good place to start looking for them.

I'm pretty sure anyone who could ever have been described as a Reagan Democrat can now be found in the cemetery or urn where they have been interred.

Why stop at Reagan Democrats? We can also talk about those FDR Democrats, Roosevelt Republicans, and Lincoln Republicans.

Go for broke.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I am calling Hillsborough county, FL for Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

I am calling Hillsborough county, FL for Trump.

Calling it?? The election is months away?

[Senator-elect Spark]

I am calling Hillsborough county, FL for Trump.

Calling it?? The election is months away?

To clarify, I am predicting that he will win Hillsborough county in the fall.

[AGA]

I doubt that these polls are accurate considering that they do not fall in line with the state polls.

[Dr. Arch]

I am calling Hillsborough county, FL for Trump.

Calling it?? The election is months away?

To clarify, I am predicting that he will win Hillsborough county in the fall.

I know what you meant, and I am questioning exactly that.