First state to flip to the Democrats in a 10% blowout?
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  First state to flip to the Democrats in a 10% blowout?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which state flips in a 54-44 landslide?
#1
Georgia		  
#2
Missouri		  
#3
Indiana		  
#4
Utah (Mormon revolt)		  
#5
None		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 83

Author Topic: First state to flip to the Democrats in a 10% blowout?  (Read 1251 times)
heatcharger
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« on: July 18, 2016, 06:08:22 PM »
Gonna go with Indiana. If enough lean R suburbanites turn on Trump, and the black vote in the NW part of the state is high, I could see a repeat of 2008.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2016, 06:20:22 PM »
North Carolina, but from this list it's Georgia.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2016, 06:23:37 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on July 18, 2016, 06:20:22 PM
North Carolina, but from this list it's Georgia.

Duh, this is assuming she already won NC and AZ.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2016, 06:58:26 PM »
North Carolina should flip, but at +10, GA and the rest of those states should remain Republican.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2016, 09:07:14 PM »
Missouri, but Georgia and Indiana also flip in a 10 point Clinton victory.
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Mallow
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« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2016, 09:15:58 PM »
None.

I think GA is first to flip (MO, IN, and even MT and TX are close behind), but all would require a margin of somewhere around +14 or better.
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LLR
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« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2016, 09:22:34 PM »
South Carolina
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Dabeav
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2016, 11:40:01 PM »
Utah would go to Johnson before that kind of flip.
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i4indyguy
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« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2016, 03:01:53 AM »
Quote from: Dabeav on July 18, 2016, 11:40:01 PM
Utah would go to Johnson before that kind of flip.

I expect UT to go for trump on the day that matters, but wouldn't be surprised if there are a significant number of voters who show up but vacate the PRES race, or who vote 3rd party. I have seen the polling of a close race, but expect the polarization effect to strengthen towards the end.

"The 'polarization' is strong with this one"  -  Yoda
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Weiner/Holder
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« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2016, 03:12:01 AM »
None in this election.  You'd have to go almost a century into the future to get those numbers on any of the states mentioned.  Unless you're talking about a governor or senate race.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2016, 03:15:17 AM »
« Edited: July 19, 2016, 03:16:58 AM by ElectionsGuy »
Missouri or Indiana. Georgia just too inelastic, I know its an over said thing, but Democrats probably need to win by 12/13 to win Georgia instead of a uniform swing.
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Sbane
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« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2016, 03:21:52 AM »
None. Georgia will require about a 11-12 point win at least, if not more depending on how the Black vote goes. Utah I am a little unsure about but probably a 15 point win will be required. Texas and Indiana  flip about the same time, at about a 15 point win. Missouri at about 16-17 along with Montana, Alaska and North Dakota.
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Wells
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2016, 09:02:56 AM »
Georgia, maybe Louisiana.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2016, 09:04:42 AM »
GA > MO > UT > IN
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mds32
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« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2016, 09:06:24 AM »
Georgia most likely
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2016, 09:13:13 AM »
Indiana > Missouri > Georgia > Utah
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #16 on: July 19, 2016, 10:57:29 AM »

I'd agree, though it's very hard to predict what UT is going to do right now.
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
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« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2016, 01:04:11 PM »
Quote from: Spark498 on July 19, 2016, 09:13:13 AM
Indiana > Missouri > Georgia > Utah
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