Idaho Politics Weekly: Trump +21, but #Under50

[Dr. Arch]

"Idaho Voters Favor Trump over Clinton "

601 LV

Trump (R): 44%
Clinton (D): 23%
Johnson (L): 5%
Stein (G): 3%
Undecided/Someone Else: 21%

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1145-poll-idaho-voters-favor-trump-over-clinton

[Seriously?]

"Idaho Voters Favor Trump over Clinton "

601 LV

Trump (R): 44%
Clinton (D): 23%
Johnson (L): 5%
Stein (G): 3%
Undecided/Someone Else: 21%

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1145-poll-idaho-voters-favor-trump-over-clinton

This pollster was terrible in the primary. Had Trump +11, Cruz won by 17.

With that said, I don't think many on here think that Idaho is going anything other than Republican. Safe R.

[NOVA Green]

"Idaho Voters Favor Trump over Clinton "

601 LV

Trump (R): 44%
Clinton (D): 23%
Johnson (L): 5%
Stein (G): 3%
Undecided/Someone Else: 21%

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1145-poll-idaho-voters-favor-trump-over-clinton

This pollster was terrible in the primary. Had Trump +11, Cruz won by 17.

With that said, I don't think many on here think that Idaho is going anything other than Republican. Safe R.

So do you think Mormon Republicans are going to unify behind Trump in ID?

Also, many Republican leaning indies in Boise, which has increasingly become a high-tech mecca because of much cheaper real estate costs than in many other Western states.

You can bag on the pollster, but again is in line with a series of polls showing Trump performing extremely poorly in the most Republican states in the union when it comes to GE Presidential candidates....

Spin and unskew however you like, but please provide additional data to support the hypothesis other than just junking on the pollster's history in a state that rarely sees GE Pres polls.

[Seriously?]

"Idaho Voters Favor Trump over Clinton "

601 LV

Trump (R): 44%
Clinton (D): 23%
Johnson (L): 5%
Stein (G): 3%
Undecided/Someone Else: 21%

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1145-poll-idaho-voters-favor-trump-over-clinton

This pollster was terrible in the primary. Had Trump +11, Cruz won by 17.

With that said, I don't think many on here think that Idaho is going anything other than Republican. Safe R.

So do you think Mormon Republicans are going to unify behind Trump in ID?

Also, many Republican leaning indies in Boise, which has increasingly become a high-tech mecca because of much cheaper real estate costs than in many other Western states.

You can bag on the pollster, but again is in line with a series of polls showing Trump performing extremely poorly in the most Republican states in the union when it comes to GE Presidential candidates....

Spin and unskew however you like, but please provide additional data to support the hypothesis other than just junking on the pollster's history in a state that rarely sees GE Pres polls.

If anything I was unskewing AGAINST Trump as there was a pro-Trump bias in the primary poll.

Idaho is NOT as Mormon as Utah. Utah is 60% Mormon. Idaho is 24%.

[RI]

Even if the Mormon vote broke 50-50, Trump would still easily win Idaho.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Here are three possible scenarios in Idaho:

Median Prediction:
Trump 57%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 9%

Low Republican Turnout:
Trump 54%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 9%

Johnson Catches Fire:
Trump 50%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 18%

For those who doubt the latter scenario, it's worth noting that Clinton and Trump are arguably the most despised politicians in history in Idaho (and Utah). Nearly everyone in Idaho is afflicted by Clinton derangement syndrome. Similarly, Trump is toxic in Idaho and not only among Mormons. Outside of some small pockets of logging and mining territory, Idaho Republicans are ideologues, people who exude a "consistent conservativism" that prioritizes economic issues and that tends to be a bit libertarian flavored, particularly regarding land-use, guns but also marijuana, NSA spying and foreign wars. Trump is anathema to these types, who quite liked Cruz. This doesn't even begin to mention Trump's weaknesses among ag-business types/farmers, who are very reliant on immigrant labor, and Mormons.

Unless this election is very close, ala 2000, Idaho's swing map will be a veritable bloodbath. It's very unlikely that Clinton will perform well but Trump will be murdered by voters who have already shown a propensity for voting for third-party candidates and by Mormons who, in the right circumstances, give Democrats 30% of the vote or so. If the latter scenario occurs, which would be a perfect storm that's incredibly unlikely, Clinton could make this a 10 point race.