What % chance does Trump have of winning election?

[Virginiá]

65-70%, about 2-in-3

[hopper]

I think like 10% as he is losing White Women by 9%-10% points per Pew Research.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

35-40%

[Lincoln Republican]

50/50

Hillary's extreme untrustworthiness and the fact that America is descending into chaos and lawlessness under a Democratic administration could very well be her downfall.

[Wisconsin+17]

there's no less than 20?

[Fuzzy Bear]

50/50

Hillary's extreme untrustworthiness and the fact that America is descending into chaos and lawlessness under a Democratic administration could very well be her downfall.

The choice this year is stark.  Not so much in policy, but in attitude and outlook.  In that respect, Trump has an advantage.  I believe he has his finger on the pulse of America far more than Hillary does (not to mention far more than other Repubicans do).

[i4indyguy]

25% at this point. With error bars encompassing 15-40%. These should shrink even further as we get more frequent polls of battleground states in sept/oct.   We have already passed through many of the events that had the best chance to limit her chances:

The Benghazi report came out. Damage was limited.  Email investigation is over; it hurt bad, but nothing close to fatal for her.  She knocked Bernie out of the race.  Donald cleared the field, and has just been approved as the nominee (i'm working on the presumption that facing Donald is great for her chances).   

If you were following 538 from 2012,  Romneys chances were being pegged at 30-45% for many months (just never managed to become 'on par with' or 'favored'.  However, in the final weeks, even though the polling changed very little, Nates' calculation creeped up into the 80s and was 90% chance of Reelection on the night before If I remember.

25-35% chance seems fair at the moment, but as we get really close, If the polling doesn't change, and we have Hillary leading by ~5% in numberous battleground states, we will have calculations that hill has a 95% chance to win the Pres.   
      Obviously it is possible to have a number this high because of the structural disadvantage the GOP has in the EC.

[Sir Mohamed]

< 10%

[windjammer]

0.1%

[ProudModerate2]

0.1%

I so wish your number was true.

[Gass3268]

I'm going to say between 25-30%.

[Hermit For Peace]

0%. He is not going to win.

[jollyschwa]

Right now - 1%.  I firmly believe that he has a 45% ceiling.  His name recognition is off the charts yet his polling numbers aren't going up.  Hillary's go up and down to change the gap but objectively speaking, I think Trump's already garnered all the support he's going to get.  The 1% chance is that Johnson/Stein can pull enough votes away from Hillary to push him past 269.

[Likely Voter]

Locked the polling as this was to get a sense before the conventions. Will do another poll after the conventions to see if Atlas Wisdom has changed. Right now our consensus seems to be in the 30  range.

[Erc]

Around 1 in 6, though my gut is telling me even that is being too generous.

[tallguy23]

I don't want to count him out yet (he could still win just based on the fact that he's the GOP nominee). However, I'm starting to feel like Clinton will win by a larger margin than we initially thought.