While this is still an unlikely possibility it has moved in recent weeks from the purely hypothetical to the plausible. A day after the referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union, Martin McGuinness (Deputy First Minister and Leader of Sinn Fein in the NI assembly) called for a 'border poll'. A 'border poll' is the term used in Ireland to describe a referendum on NI's political status: either status quo (member of the UK) or as part of a united Irish republic. Now the Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister), after initially rubbishing the idea,
has suggested, with some hedging of words, that such a poll might be take place in the future. The right of Northern Ireland is hold such a referendum is guaranteed under the Good Friday Agreement. Needless to say though, the entire Unionist establishment is against such a poll, most of which campaigned for a Leave vote in the referendum three weeks ago.
I, for one, can't imagine such a poll taking place until around 2020 and then only in the event of Scottish Independence, as that would make the situation of NI within the UK even more anomalous than it is already and put into huge question the status of NI in the UK. In any future trade negotiation with any other country (assuming the UK leaves the single market and does not join the EEA), NI's priorities (mostly agriculture and engineering, especially aeronautics) are going to be way down the list, and would conflict with the primary interests of the rest of the UK. As it is, Northern Ireland is basically a state dependent economy surviving on UK government grants. How generous will these be in the future, especially now that they've lost EU funding?
However, if I were *shudder* a hardline Unionist I would want such a poll sooner rather than later, for reasons that this chart (from 2014) will demonstrate
As for the result of any poll, that is clear. Unless things go completely wrong, Northern Ireland will vote to stay in the UK. The amount of Protestants who would vote for a United Ireland is negligible and many Catholics, despite everything, will vote to stay although polling regularly disputes on how many. Unification might mean giving up UK public services like the NHS to their inferior Irish equivalents (and in the long run, I'm highly dubious as to whether Northern Catholics would like being run from Dublin). However, such a result would still leave constitutional ambiguities about Northern Ireland's status, especially if it is close. As for how the results map would look like, something extremely close to this:
Although not precisely as the councils shown in this 2011 census religious demographics map (Red Protestant, Blue Catholics) have since been abolished and replaced by larger 'supercouncils'.
I might dwell this more on another post but unification would mean big changes to the Republic as much as to the North. Adding the North to the Republic would increase the population by 40% and as I noted earlier would add very different public sector infrastructure - the creatures of the post-war welfare state - to the Republic. Laws and social attitudes have diverged significantly since partition was established under the Government of Ireland Act in 1920. The Republic, despite its prohibition on Abortion, is the more liberal of the two states, less religious, and the more prosperous - a complete reverse of the situation in times past. Unification would inevitably lead to mass constitutional change in the Republic, possibly leading to a new constitution all together and possibly some kind of federalism. All these issues would have to be addressed by the government of the Republic before any border poll was held. Note that in all probability the Republic itself would have to hold a referendum on the North joining, although I can't imagine in any scenario that if the North were somehow vote to join that such a referendum were rejected despite mumblings on the cost of reunification and having to put up with bloody loyalists, who would not just shut up in a United Ireland.
In recent years, Northern Ireland's economy strategy has been based in hope that Westminster would devolve tax powers to the Stormont Assembly so to compete with the Republic for Foreign Direct Investment (with the Republic low rate of Corporation Tax - 12.5% - compared to the much higher UK wide rate being a source of contention). However, outside of the single market, it is hard to see how Northern Ireland can make itself more attractive to FDI by simply mimicking the Republic. Either it would have to cut taxes much harder and thus undercut what it is left of its fiscal independence and become a tax haven (NI at the moment has only a minimal financial services sector, purely for domestic use). Similarly outside of the CAP NI Agriculture will have to seek protection from the Stormont Assembly (which has the power to do so) but surely could not unless Stormont's fiscal powers were expanded significantly, otherwise it could face open global competition while Southern agriculture remains under the CAP's barriers. These are major issues for the North's macroeconomy that will need to be resolved under any Brexit deal, and would certainly influence the nature of any vote should it come after such a deal.
There are also a few questions to add:
1) How many people will die in such a campaign? (Very good chance the answer is not 'zero')
2) What positions will the various parties in the Republic take? Would they publish very different 'unification' deals?
3) Mostly importantly, how would such a poll be called, and would sort of agreement would have to take place for it happen? Again, if I were a Unionist, I'd want this sooner than later.
