538: Clinton's lead about as safe as Kerry's heading into the convention

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-is-as-safe-as-kerrys-was-in-2004/
538 wrote up an analysis today on how to react to post-convention polling and compares now to the past.

[i4indyguy]

Important to also keep in mind that Donald Trump/His campaign approach bare no resemblance to GWB/His campaign approach.   

Bush was able to overcome with the power of incumbency and a legendary strategy to turn out social conservative swing voters. Donald, if he wins, will do so with none of these tools in his box.

[Gass3268]

It also says its about where Obama was in both in 2008 and 2012. So obviously things can go both ways.

[Lief 🗽]

#NateSilverForPrison imo

[heatcharger]

I don't think so. Bush had a pretty high floor, he was a "wartime president" because of Iraq, which wasn't super unpopular yet. It didn't hurt he had a far more competent campaign and some resemblance of a strategy.

The electoral map in 2004 was also far friendlier to the Republicans. States like WI, PA, NH, NM, and NV, which nowadays are at least Lean D, were states Bush was very competitive in. It also helped that VA and NC were Likely R at the time. Trump literally only has one path to victory: Romney + FL + OH + PA.

[Xing]

^Yeah, the map is definitely better for Hillary than it ever was for Kerry. OH and PA are about where they were in 2004, but Hillary's advantage in the upper Midwest is definitely stronger than Kerry's was. She's also favored in NV, CO, and VA, states in which Kerry was either behind, or not even competitive. Not to mention NC is actually in play, while NM isn't.

[Ebsy]

Jesus Christ Silver is a hack. He should stick to averaging polls.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Kerry > Clinton

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Kerry > Clinton

Bush >>>>>> Trump

[Gustaf]

The main point of the article is that conventions traditionally have boosted the incumbent party and that polls around convention time aren't very reliable.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

#NateSilverForPrison imo

Yes Lief, we all understand by now that wanna-be dictator TrumpMiller wants to throw people in prison for the "crime" of failing to let him win elections. Perhaps he should try moving to a banana republic and running for president there? (I'd say he should but a small country, but we all also know that he's not really wealthy enough to do that, even though he likes to pretend he is.)

[Alcon]

Jesus Christ Silver is a hack. He should stick to averaging polls.

What part of his argument here do you disagree with?