Luntz to delegates: GOP has 'lost' the millennial generation

[Virginiá]

I find it pretty funny how some just dump all over Millennials, especially over the Internet, probably using software maintained by a bunch of Millennial programmers, or perhaps posting to Facebook as old people have taken quite a shine to, you know, that site Millennials created.

Millennials over the course of their lives are going to contribute more than enough to this world, and most likely far more in terms of STEM than any previous generation could have hoped. At any rate, I don't think Boomers or GenX'ers really have any room to speak on this stuff.

[Virginiá]

You guys are mis-interpreting this situation because nobody thus far has mentioned demographics.

It's true that the GOP is handily losing the millennial vote, but the cause is not entirely the GOP's message. Rather, the cause is that the millennial generation is the most diverse generation in American history.

In 2012, Mitt Romney actually beat Obama among white voters aged 18-29 by a solid margin, 51% - 44%. However, Obama offset those losses by winning young black voters 91% - 8% and by winning young Hispanic voters 74% - 23%.

Importantly, those splits are not new --- white youths, black youths, and Hispanic youths have almost always voted by those margins. The difference between now and the past, though, is that today only "58%[of young voters] are white non-Hispanic, compared with 76% of voters older than 30."

Demographics, hence, is critical to this discussion.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/26/young-voters-supported-obama-less-but-may-have-mattered-more/

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That's true, but it doesn't make the GOP's situation any less precarious in regards to essentially losing an entire generation. If Millennial non-white voters continue voting like their parents, and their parents before them, etc, then Republicans are going to be hard pressed to make any inroads in essentially 20 years worth of voters. African Americans and Hispanics have maintained consistent voting patterns for at least half a century now. White Millennials won't necessarily be a cakewalk for the GOP, either.

A bigger issue even is Generation Z, which is even more diverse. If Republicans ever find a way to break through to minorities, it is almost surely going to take many years, and that will be well after they begin getting swamped by both Millennials and GenZ voters.

I suppose a silver lining here is that the GOP will most certainly find a way, whether it takes a decade or decades, because if they don't, they will become nothing more than a rump party in the not-so-distant future.