UT-4 Poll: Mia Love not going anywhere

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Love 51%
Owens 36%
Simonson (C) 4%

https://doc-0k-14-docs.googleusercontent.com/docs/securesc/ha0ro937gcuc7l7deffksulhg5h7mbp1/j03e4nlfl5tq7602r18ndf3snmia163u/1469080800000/18317280022351463624/*/0B6-zXaKeceR4ZW5WZ21la0xNWlk?e=download

[windjammer]

I still believe she will lose in the end.

[ElectionsGuy]

I still believe she will lose in the end.

Atlas analysis at its finest.

[windjammer]

I still believe she will lose in the end.

Atlas analysis at its finest.

Oh yes I forgot, you're so intelligent

[JerryArkansas]

I still believe she will lose in the end.

Atlas analysis at its finest.

It is an internal poll, and also take a look at the presidential numbers.  29% for Trump, 27 for Hillary and 20 something for Johnson.  Salt heavily to taste.

[ElectionsGuy]

I still believe she will lose in the end.

Atlas analysis at its finest.

Oh yes I forgot, you're so intelligent

I didn't say that nor do I think that

What needs to stop is blind belief and immediate dismal of any information that is inconvenient for your (or anyone else's) tastes.

I still believe she will lose in the end.

Atlas analysis at its finest.

It is an internal poll, and also take a look at the presidential numbers.  29% for Trump, 27 for Hillary and 20 something for Johnson.  Salt heavily to taste.

I don't think its a good poll, I saw the presidential poll as well and its very flawed.

[Vega]

I still believe she will lose in the end.

[Kevin]

I'm not familar with UT-04 but why is Love having so much trouble in an R+14 district?

I know Jim Mathison represented this area for a number of years but he was a conservative Blue Dog who was basically the Democratic version of Lincoln Chafee.

[Heisenberg]

I'm not familar with UT-04 but why is Love having so much trouble in an R+14 district?

I know Jim Mathison represented this area for a number of years but he was a conservative Blue Dog who was basically the Democratic version of Lincoln Chafee.

Matheson was helped not only for his Blue Dog views, but his last name as well (his father was a popular former governor). As for why Love seriously underperforms, I suspect that some voters may be racist? That's what other members have also suggested.

[Kevin]

I'm not familar with UT-04 but why is Love having so much trouble in an R+14 district?

I know Jim Mathison represented this area for a number of years but he was a conservative Blue Dog who was basically the Democratic version of Lincoln Chafee.

Matheson was helped not only for his Blue Dog views, but his last name as well (his father was a popular former governor). As for why Love seriously underperforms, I suspect that some voters may be racist? That's what other members have also suggested.

Even though it might be un-PC to say I've felt that some underlying racism might be the case why the Democrats are doing so well here.

 Esp. given that her opponent is white and most likely Mormon.

[IceSpear]

LOL at Republicans who scream like banshees whenever Democrats bring up their appeals to racism to win votes now using it as an excuse for why Mia Love is vulnerable.

[Xing]

Love will probably win, unless Trump actually does lose Utah.

[Higgs]

Just because you don't know why she's struggling is no reason to immediately assume racism. You have zero evidence for this claim, c'mon guys you're better than that.

[Kingpoleon]

Isn't Wulfric the one who always calls internals trash? Yeah, trash it.

jamestroll, working for the Owens campaign, says Owens' internals have him up fifteen, so...

[Vega]

LOL at Republicans who scream like banshees whenever Democrats bring up their appeals to racism to win votes now using it as an excuse for why Mia Love is vulnerable.

All the Japanese in Utah legislature/politics must be immune to such racism. I thought the same thing before, but I don't think that's a huge issue in Utah.

[Zioneer]

I'm not familar with UT-04 but why is Love having so much trouble in an R+14 district?

I know Jim Matheson represented this area for a number of years but he was a conservative Blue Dog who was basically the Democratic version of Lincoln Chafee.

Well, it's a Blue Dog friendly district in any case, and Love's opponent Doug Owens is another member of a Blue Dog political family (his father was Congressman Wayne Owens). He's a tiny bit to the left of Matheson, but is perceived as having basically the same political views.

LOL at Republicans who scream like banshees whenever Democrats bring up their appeals to racism to win votes now using it as an excuse for why Mia Love is vulnerable.

All the Japanese in Utah legislature/politics must be immune to such racism. I thought the same thing before, but I don't think that's a huge issue in Utah.

Yeah, there's 4 Japanese American legislators, (3 Republicans and one Democrat), 6 Hispanic legislators (all Democrats), 2 African-American legislators (one Democrat, one Republican), and one Jewish legislator (Democrat). There are also several candidates for state legislature who are minorities. Oh, and the GOP state chair is black and is a former state senator.

[Zioneer]

Also this internal is junk, with funky presidential numbers and Love-Owens numbers that don't agree with any other polls done so far. The pollster (Y2 Analytics) that did this internal also did an internal in October 2014, with Love having a 47-28 lead. She ended up only winning by 51-46.

It's better just to wait for the Dan Jones poll, they're usually the gold standard for Utah elections.

[Simfan34]

I'm not familar with UT-04 but why is Love having so much trouble in an R+14 district?

I know Jim Mathison represented this area for a number of years but he was a conservative Blue Dog who was basically the Democratic version of Lincoln Chafee.

Matheson was helped not only for his Blue Dog views, but his last name as well (his father was a popular former governor). As for why Love seriously underperforms, I suspect that some voters may be racist? That's what other members have also suggested.

Mormons definitely held... problematic beliefs about black people well into the 20th century, but I'd say that nowadays they're, on the whole, probably less racist than the average Republican.

The practice of universal missionary service, often (I can't say what proportion) overseas, means Mormons have intimately experienced foreign cultures in a way that makes impossible to subscribe to the sort of insular bigotry and ignorant xenophobia that has swept many on the right. Furthermore, the growing number of minority Mormons, usually immigrants, like Love (but particularly South Pacific islanders) means that while Utah has become more diverse, there hasn't been the sort of racial polarization or growth in negative attitudes that usually accompanies demographic shifts in this country. Diversity has increased and, generally, they're happy about it-- it helps that growing diversity also attests to the brisk growth of the LDS church.

So no, I don't think it's racism, although we've been through this before. I think the problem is one of personalities-- Matheson was the scion of an political family, and the consummate Blue Dog to boot, while Love ran two lacklustre campaigns.

Romney's performance also overplays the R lean of the district; Romney was a favorite son running for the presidency, and the most popular politician in the state to boot. When you put 2012 to the side, the PVI would be considerably lower, maybe even by half. It's the kind of district a conservative Democrat, which I can only imagine Owens is, could make a play for.

The presidential numbers don't look that weird to me, though. They're pretty similar to what the other Utah polls have shown, and considering the district leans D relative to the rest of the state, they look plausible enough.

[Miles]

This district was only 56% McCain in 2008, and Trump will likely run under that if the current Utah polling holds.