I'm not familar with UT-04 but why is Love having so much trouble in an R+14 district?
I know Jim Mathison represented this area for a number of years but he was a conservative Blue Dog who was basically the Democratic version of Lincoln Chafee.
Mormons definitely held... problematic beliefs about black people well into the 20th century, but I'd say that nowadays they're, on the whole, probably less racist than the average Republican.
The practice of universal missionary service, often (I can't say what proportion) overseas, means Mormons have intimately experienced foreign cultures in a way that makes impossible to subscribe to the sort of insular bigotry and ignorant xenophobia that has swept many on the right. Furthermore, the growing number of minority Mormons, usually immigrants, like Love (but particularly South Pacific islanders) means that while Utah has become more diverse, there hasn't been the sort of racial polarization or growth in negative attitudes that usually accompanies demographic shifts in this country. Diversity has increased and, generally, they're happy about it-- it helps that growing diversity also attests to the brisk growth of the LDS church.
So no, I don't think it's racism, although we've been through this before. I think the problem is one of personalities-- Matheson was the scion of an political family, and the consummate Blue Dog to boot, while Love ran two lacklustre campaigns.
Romney's performance also overplays the R lean of the district; Romney was a favorite son running for the presidency, and the most popular politician in the state to boot. When you put 2012 to the side, the PVI would be considerably lower, maybe even by half. It's the kind of district a conservative Democrat, which I can only imagine Owens is, could make a play for.
The presidential numbers don't look that weird to me, though. They're pretty similar to what the other Utah polls have shown, and considering the district leans D relative to the rest of the state, they look plausible enough.
