If Trump wins presidency, how many Dem Senators in 2018 lose their seats?

[Suburbia]

If Republican Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2016, how will that affect the Democratic Senators who are up for reelection in red and swing states? Can Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp, Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, Tammy Baldwin, and maybe even Debbie Stabenow (blue leaning Michigan) and Bob Menendez (corrupt Dem in a blue state) hope for a poor approval rating from a President Trump to coast by?

[Mr.Phips]

If Republican Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2016, how will that affect the Democratic Senators who are up for reelection in red and swing states? Can Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp, Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, Tammy Baldwin, and maybe even Debbie Stabenow (blue leaning Michigan) and Bob Menendez (corrupt Dem in a blue state) hope for a poor approval rating from a President Trump to coast by?

Stabanow isnt losing even in a 2010 repeat.  Republicans couldn't even come close in 2014 in an open seat race with a statewide officeholder.

[Kingpoleon]

North Dakota.

Worst case scenario for the GOP is losing Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe Utah if a Trumpists is nominated there. If Trump wins this year, I'd say 2018 is D+2(+ AZ, NV, TX; - ND).

[Mr.Phips]

North Dakota.

Worst case scenario for the GOP is losing Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe Utah if a Trumpists is nominated there. If Trump wins this year, I'd say 2018 is D+2(+ AZ, NV, TX; - ND).

If Trump wins, Heithkemp almost certainly wins in ND.

[Californiadreaming]

North Dakota.

Worst case scenario for the GOP is losing Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe Utah if a Trumpists is nominated there. If Trump wins this year, I'd say 2018 is D+2(+ AZ, NV, TX; - ND).

Why Utah?

[Virginiá]

Naturally the GOP will have another one of its unlimited midterm waves where Democrats will lose a minimum of 20 seats.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

North Dakota.

Worst case scenario for the GOP is losing Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe Utah if a Trumpists is nominated there. If Trump wins this year, I'd say 2018 is D+2(+ AZ, NV, TX; - ND).

Donnelly is dead in the water unless Murdock runs again. McCaskill MIGHT survive, but I'd definitely bet against her at this point. Same for Heitkamp. Tester/Manchin, assuming that Trump is unpopular (which cannot be counted on), should be okay as long as they don't say anything stupid.

If Trump is popular, the above five lose, and keep an eye on Brown/Nelson/Kaine/Baldwin/Casey. Henrich and Menendez could theoretically lose, but should be fine.

As far as Dem pickups, Heller could go down, but Flake is probably fools' gold. Texas won't be competitive until 2030 period.

[IceSpear]

Manchin is already gone no matter what.

For the others, it will obviously depend heavily on Trump's popularity and the candidate quality of their opponents.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Manchin is already gone no matter what.

Probable worst case scenario for Manchin is probably losing 45-52. He's moderate and popular.

[Pandaguineapig]

It depends on trumps popularity if he is above 50% then a filibuster proof majority is within reach while if it's below 35% picking up seats is entirely possible

[Kingpoleon]

North Dakota.

Worst case scenario for the GOP is losing Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe Utah if a Trumpists is nominated there. If Trump wins this year, I'd say 2018 is D+2(+ AZ, NV, TX; - ND).

If Trump wins, Heithkemp almost certainly wins in ND.

I doubt it. Drew Wrigley or Kelly Schmidt could beat her 51-45.

[Heisenberg]

North Dakota.

Worst case scenario for the GOP is losing Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe Utah if a Trumpists is nominated there. If Trump wins this year, I'd say 2018 is D+2(+ AZ, NV, TX; - ND).

If Trump wins, Heithkemp almost certainly wins in ND.

I doubt it. Drew Wrigley or Kelly Schmidt could beat her 51-45.

They could put up Rick Berg again, perennial candidate Duane Sands, or a some dude, and then Heitkamp would easily win reelection.

[IceSpear]

Manchin is already gone no matter what.

Probable worst case scenario for Manchin is probably losing 45-52. He's moderate and popular.

He's moderate and popular 2.5 years before the election? Wow. That will definitely save him. Just ask Sen. Pryor.

His approval is already mediocre and it will tank the second the outside money rolls in. He's toast.

Anyway, we can revisit this matter in 2018 and see who was right.

[Kingpoleon]

North Dakota.

Worst case scenario for the GOP is losing Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe Utah if a Trumpists is nominated there. If Trump wins this year, I'd say 2018 is D+2(+ AZ, NV, TX; - ND).

If Trump wins, Heithkemp almost certainly wins in ND.

I doubt it. Drew Wrigley or Kelly Schmidt could beat her 51-45.

They could put up Rick Berg again, perennial candidate Duane Sands, or a some dude, and then Heitkamp would easily win reelection.

Why would they nominate Berg again?

There's far too deep a bench of somewhat young and ambitious Republicans in North Dakota. Brian Kalk, Drew Wrigley, Kelly Schmidt, Cory Fong, Adam Hamm, Jim Poolman, Nicole Poolman, Wayne Stenehjem, and Kevin Cramer all have held anywhere from one to four statewide offices, with the exception of Nicole Poolman. She was Stenehjem's primary running mate this year.

[pikachu]

This is a really silly question to ask since we don't what the circumstances of 2018 would be, especially with a President Trump, whose behavior would likely be extremely erratic at the best of times. With that said, the fundamentals of a midterm election under a Republican president suggest that Dean Heller should be very, very scared, and that Jeff Flake should be a little nervous. There are some Dem seats worth worrying about, and I'd expect Republicans to get a net gain, but under neutral conditions, I can't see it being that large.

[windjammer]

No one, he will be so unpopular, so,...

[Mr.Phips]

The President being popular is rarely enough to help the party in midterm elections.  Even Obama and Clinton weren't particularly unpopular in 2010 and 1994 (they were both in the high 40s) and Democrats got killed in both elections.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If Republican Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2016, how will that affect the Democratic Senators who are up for reelection in red and swing states? Can Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp, Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, Tammy Baldwin, and maybe even Debbie Stabenow (blue leaning Michigan) and Bob Menendez (corrupt Dem in a blue state) hope for a poor approval rating from a President Trump to coast by?

Stabanow isnt losing even in a 2010 repeat.  Republicans couldn't even come close in 2014 in an open seat race with a statewide officeholder.

Terri Lynn Land was a garbage nominee.

[Heisenberg]

If Republican Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2016, how will that affect the Democratic Senators who are up for reelection in red and swing states? Can Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp, Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, Tammy Baldwin, and maybe even Debbie Stabenow (blue leaning Michigan) and Bob Menendez (corrupt Dem in a blue state) hope for a poor approval rating from a President Trump to coast by?

Stabanow isnt losing even in a 2010 repeat.  Republicans couldn't even come close in 2014 in an open seat race with a statewide officeholder.

Terri Lynn Land was a garbage nominee.

True, she was constantly nervous and refused to appear in public. Plus she was out of office for a few years.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The President being popular is rarely enough to help the party in midterm elections.  Even Obama and Clinton weren't particularly unpopular in 2010 and 1994 (they were both in the high 40s) and Democrats got killed in both elections.

The 2010 exit poll had Obama at 54% or 55% disapproval. So more like mid 40s.

[Mr.Phips]

If Republican Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2016, how will that affect the Democratic Senators who are up for reelection in red and swing states? Can Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp, Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, Tammy Baldwin, and maybe even Debbie Stabenow (blue leaning Michigan) and Bob Menendez (corrupt Dem in a blue state) hope for a poor approval rating from a President Trump to coast by?

Stabanow isnt losing even in a 2010 repeat.  Republicans couldn't even come close in 2014 in an open seat race with a statewide officeholder.

Terri Lynn Land was a garbage nominee.

That's not what Republicans said when she first got in that race. 

[Mr.Phips]

The President being popular is rarely enough to help the party in midterm elections.  Even Obama and Clinton weren't particularly unpopular in 2010 and 1994 (they were both in the high 40s) and Democrats got killed in both elections.

The 2010 exit poll had Obama at 54% or 55% disapproval. So more like mid 40s.

Mid 40s is basically par for the course in these polarized times.  Itd not like he was at 35% like Bush in 2006.

[Sir Mohamed]

North Dakota.

Worst case scenario for the GOP is losing Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe Utah if a Trumpists is nominated there. If Trump wins this year, I'd say 2018 is D+2(+ AZ, NV, TX; - ND).

The GOP isn't losing TX. Cruz will be reelected handily and a potential primary challenge will go nowhere.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If Republican Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2016, how will that affect the Democratic Senators who are up for reelection in red and swing states? Can Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp, Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, Tammy Baldwin, and maybe even Debbie Stabenow (blue leaning Michigan) and Bob Menendez (corrupt Dem in a blue state) hope for a poor approval rating from a President Trump to coast by?

Stabanow isnt losing even in a 2010 repeat.  Republicans couldn't even come close in 2014 in an open seat race with a statewide officeholder.

Terri Lynn Land was a garbage nominee.

That's not what Republicans said when she first got in that race. 

Correct, because she looked good on paper being a former statewide officeholder who could self-fund. Then we saw her campaigning skills and realized that, in practice, she wasn't any good.