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Poll
Question: Who will carry Staten Island?
#1
Hillary Clinton		  
#2
Donald Trump		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 75

Author Topic: Staten Island  (Read 2580 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« on: July 23, 2016, 02:55:34 PM »
The most Italian American county a better fit for Trump than Romney.  Obama won it narrowly in 2012. 

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Seriously?
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« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2016, 02:58:44 PM »
Trump. And it won't even be close. Trump dominated in Richmond County (Staten Island) in the primary. It's his target demo.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2016, 03:05:37 PM »
Quote from: Seriously? on July 23, 2016, 02:58:44 PM
Trump. And it won't even be close. Trump dominated in Richmond County (Staten Island) in the primary. It's his target demo.

Yes. Trump will dominate the South Shore area of Staten Island. The Giuliani voters of the 1990s NYC mayoral race loves him. Clinton will do well in the North Shore (black and Latino voters).
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2016, 03:11:34 PM »
Trump certainly
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2016, 03:12:32 PM »
Trump
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Spark498
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2016, 03:32:58 PM »
Donald Trump
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xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2016, 04:16:41 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2016, 05:43:10 PM by xīngkěruì »
This county could swing toward Trump more than any other county in the country.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2016, 04:22:27 PM »
Likely Trump. Obama only won it because Sandy.
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jro660
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2016, 04:24:05 PM »
Quote from: Seriously? on July 23, 2016, 02:58:44 PM
Trump. And it won't even be close. Trump dominated in Richmond County (Staten Island) in the primary. It's his target demo.

Staten Island is a great geographical example of one of the few cross-sections of American voters in which support for Trump might outperform that of McCain or Romney. Staten Island has a lot of blue collar, trade union Democrats who feel that Trump speaks to them. That being said, I don't agree that it "won't be close," though I could see Trump pulling off a 53-46 type of win.
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2016, 05:28:50 PM »
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2016, 05:31:36 PM »
Quote from: Seriously? on July 23, 2016, 02:58:44 PM
Trump. And it won't even be close. Trump dominated in Richmond County (Staten Island) in the primary. It's his target demo.

He may have dominated in the primary, but he still only got a few thousand more votes there than Clinton did.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2016, 05:32:04 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on July 23, 2016, 04:16:41 PM
This country could swing toward Trump more than any other county in the country.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2016, 06:37:47 PM »
A very typical Trump demographic.  Staten Island (Richmond County) has about 40,000 more Republicans than Democrats, but this is because lots of folks there register Democratic in order to vote in the Democratic primary for Mayor.
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2016, 07:03:04 PM »
Hey, if we're going to discuss irrelevant apples to oranges comparisons like Trump's primary performance, let's not forget Clinton won SI by 16 points in her re-election to the Senate in 2006.

Seriously though, probably Trump by a healthy, but not overwhelming margin.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2016, 07:15:07 PM »
Quote from: Badger on July 23, 2016, 07:03:04 PM
Hey, if we're going to discuss irrelevant apples to oranges comparisons like Trump's primary performance, let's not forget Clinton won SI by 16 points in her re-election to the Senate in 2006.

Seriously though, probably Trump by a healthy, but not overwhelming margin.

Trump may well run further ahead of expectations in Staten Island than anywhere else in the country.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2016, 07:59:27 PM »
Trump should definitely win it.
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nclib
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« Reply #16 on: July 23, 2016, 08:45:07 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on July 23, 2016, 04:16:41 PM
This county could swing toward Trump more than any other county in the country.

Unlikely, but maybe among large counties.

Trump will win it, but I doubt by that much.
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: July 23, 2016, 08:50:41 PM »
Trump will win Staten Island, probably by high single digits.  As others have said, he crushed there in the primary.
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Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
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« Reply #18 on: July 23, 2016, 10:18:28 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on July 23, 2016, 08:50:41 PM
Trump will win Staten Island, probably by high single digits.  As others have said, he crushed there in the primary.
He also "crushed" in every New York City borough except Manhattan. Think he's going to win those, too? Is he also going to win in Nevada? He "crushed" there as well.
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cinyc
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« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2016, 10:58:55 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2016, 12:24:09 AM by cinyc »
Quote from: whitesox130 on July 23, 2016, 10:18:28 PM
Quote from: cinyc on July 23, 2016, 08:50:41 PM
Trump will win Staten Island, probably by high single digits.  As others have said, he crushed there in the primary.
He also "crushed" in every New York City borough except Manhattan. Think he's going to win those, too? Is he also going to win in Nevada? He "crushed" there as well.

Not really.  Trump crushed in the non-Hispanic White ethnic portions of the outer boroughs.  Not orthodox Jewish places like Borough Park.  Not the black or Latino areas of those boroughs (and where he did, there were few Republican votes).  Not in the gentrified parts of those boroughs.  There simply aren't enough of those white ethnic pockets for him to win the other boroughs, even if the orthodox vote goes to Trump.  There are in Staten Island.  That's the big difference.  Again, I offer up my zoomable NYC precinct-level map on carto.com for you to do your own analysis.

Trump will do well in the Nevada cow counties and be competitive in Washoe.  Trump did well in resort towns in the primaries, and I expect that trend to continue in the general.  He'll likely lose Clark County and the state, though.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #20 on: July 24, 2016, 09:02:13 AM »
Quote from: whitesox130 on July 23, 2016, 10:18:28 PM
Quote from: cinyc on July 23, 2016, 08:50:41 PM
Trump will win Staten Island, probably by high single digits.  As others have said, he crushed there in the primary.
He also "crushed" in every New York City borough except Manhattan. Think he's going to win those, too? Is he also going to win in Nevada? He "crushed" there as well.
Unlike the other four boroughs of NYC, there are real Republicans in Richmond County (Staten Island). Republicans actually control the Borough President's office and have for a long time. Their Congressman is a Republican and 2 of the 3 city council members are Republican. (There is just one other Republican city councilman on the entire council in NYC and he's from Queens).

Trump took 82% of the vote in Richmond, more votes by percentage than anywhere else in New York. The percentage of the vote was not even close elsewhere in the state.

Trump broke into the low-70s in Suffolk County (72.5%) and Putnam County (70.4%).

As far as Nevada goes, I give him a better chance there than the red avatars on this forum do. There's the resort effect, plus, in a more competitive race, Republicans have a chance there. Realistically, the state has a slight lean Democrat, but it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility that if Trump wins the popular vote by a point or two, he takes Nevada.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2016, 10:19:29 AM »
Quote from: Seriously? on July 24, 2016, 09:02:13 AM
Trump took 82% of the vote in Richmond, more votes by percentage than anywhere else in New York. The percentage of the vote was not even close elsewhere in the state.

Trump broke into the low-70s in Suffolk County (72.5%) and Putnam County (70.4%).

Probably not a coincidence that these counties have the highest percentage of Italian Americans in NYS. 
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Bigby
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« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2016, 10:47:31 AM »
Trump was hand-woven for this island's voters.
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