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| | |-+  Trump at 42%, Clinton at 41% in CBS Battleground Tracker Poll
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Author Topic: Trump at 42%, Clinton at 41% in CBS Battleground Tracker Poll  (Read 4460 times)
jaichind
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« on: July 24, 2016, 10:11:01 am »
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(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump support had been at 40% prior to Republican National Convention in Cleveland, CBS News says in its latest Battleground Tracker poll.
Hillary Clinton was unchanged at 41%, CBS says
CBS conducted 2,131 interviews of registered voters in 11 states: Colo., Fla., Iowa, Mi., N.C., N.H., N.Y., Ohio, Pa., Va. and Wis.; survey done via Internet
Respondents contacted before and after Republican convention
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2016, 10:12:56 am »
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Any state specific polls?
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2016, 10:20:57 am »
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(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump support had been at 40% prior to Republican National Convention in Cleveland, CBS News says in its latest Battleground Tracker poll.
Hillary Clinton was unchanged at 41%, CBS says
CBS conducted 2,131 interviews of registered voters in 11 states: Colo., Fla., Iowa, Mi., N.C., N.H., N.Y., Ohio, Pa., Va. and Wis.; survey done via Internet
Respondents contacted before and after Republican convention

New York was not one of the states included in this poll

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin
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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2016, 10:23:31 am »
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New York was not one of the states included in this poll

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin

Good catch. I was wondering why NY was in there.  Any if NY is in there then this is a fairly bad poll for Clinton. 
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2016, 10:49:54 am »
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Their battleground sample - interpret as you wish:

White ...................................................................78%

Black ...................................................................11%

Hispanic .................................................................7%

Other .................................................................... 4%
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2016, 10:52:25 am »
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Their battleground sample - interpret as you wish:

White ...................................................................78%

Black ...................................................................11%

Hispanic .................................................................7%

Other .................................................................... 4%
White at 78%? Huh?
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2016, 10:53:17 am »
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Their battleground sample - interpret as you wish:

White ...................................................................78%

Black ...................................................................11%

Hispanic .................................................................7%

Other .................................................................... 4%
White at 78%? Huh?

What the heck?
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2016, 10:54:54 am »
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Their battleground sample - interpret as you wish:

White ...................................................................78%

Black ...................................................................11%

Hispanic .................................................................7%

Other .................................................................... 4%
White at 78%? Huh?

yes, one thing this cycle...polls tighten up when the white share of the vote increases from 2008 and 2012. When pollsters put the white vote at the same or lower levels from 2012 they usually show a comfortable Hillary lead. Just thought this was interesting...battleground sample is almost 80% white. Explains why Trump would lead by 1. Same thing happens in Q polls as well.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2016, 10:58:11 am »
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4. Did what you saw or heard from Donald Trump at the Republican convention make you personally feel... (Check all that apply.)

Enthusiastic ............................................................ 24%
Hopeful .................................................................30%
Pessimistic ............................................................. 27%
Scared ................................................................. 36%
Didnít watch enough of it to say .........................................14%
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2016, 11:00:36 am »
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Their battleground sample - interpret as you wish:

White ...................................................................78%

Black ...................................................................11%

Hispanic .................................................................7%

Other .................................................................... 4%
White at 78%? Huh?

What the heck?

Is it possible that this collection of states is simply whiter than the nation as a whole?
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2016, 11:04:14 am »
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Their battleground sample - interpret as you wish:

White ...................................................................78%

Black ...................................................................11%

Hispanic .................................................................7%

Other .................................................................... 4%
White at 78%? Huh?

What the heck?

Is it possible that this collection of states is simply whiter than the nation as a whole?
Hmm, perhaps. Then again, it includes states like Florida and Nevada, which are more minority compared to the general electorate, states like New Hampshire and Iowa, which are whiter than the general electorate, and states that are near the national average, such as North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado.

I wouldn't expect a significant differnce overall.
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dspNY
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« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2016, 11:14:33 am »
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Their battleground sample - interpret as you wish:

White ...................................................................78%

Black ...................................................................11%

Hispanic .................................................................7%

Other .................................................................... 4%

2012 Exit polls by state:

Colorado: 78% W, 3% AA, 14% L, 6% Other
Florida: 67% W, 13% AA, 17% L, 3% Other
Iowa: 93% W, 2% AA, 3% L, 2% Other
Michigan: 77% W, 16% AA, 3% L, 4% Other
N. Carolina: 70% W, 23% AA, 4% L, 3% Other
N. Hampshire: 95% W, 1% AA, 3% L, 1% Other
Nevada: 64% W, 9% AA, 19% L, 9% Other
Ohio: 79% W, 15% AA, 3% L, 3% Other
Pennsylvania: 78% W, 13% AA, 6% L, 3% Other
Virginia: 70% W, 20% AA, 5% L, 5% Other
Wisconsin: 86% W, 7% AA, 4% L, 3% Other

Judging by the size of these states and their demographic compositions the battleground composite should be:

74% W, 13% AA, 9% L, 4% Other
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« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2016, 11:21:29 am »
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Judging by the size of these states and their demographic compositions the battleground composite should be:

74% W, 13% AA, 9% L, 4% Other

Where do your numbers come from? How did you calculate these percentages?

I've notived the overall numbers are close to Pennsylvania. Isn't that an average state?
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2016, 11:22:24 am »
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Exit Poll 2012 & Total votes

CO: 2.57 Million votes x White 78% = 2.00
FL: 8.47 Million votes x White 67% = 5.67
IA: 1.58 Million votes x White 93% = 1.47
MI: 4.73 Million votes x White 77% = 3.64
NC: 4.50 Million votes x White 70% = 3.15
NH: 0.71 Million votes x White 93% = 0.66
NV: 1.01 Million votes x White 64% = 0.65
OH: 4.50 Million votes x White 79% = 3.55
PA: 5.75 Million votes x White 79% = 4.54
VA: 3.85 Million votes x White 70% = 2.70
WI: 4.73 Million votes x White 86% = 4.07

Total 42.40 Million votes  32.10 Million White voters

32.10 / 42.40 = 75.7%

imo turnouts in 2016 - White: Increase / Black: lower


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2016, 11:25:18 am »
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Not really a surprise that a swing state poll shows a tie now after the RNC ...
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Ljube
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« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2016, 11:29:40 am »
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This poll is useless.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2016, 11:29:47 am »
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Any state specific polls?

That would make no sense in this case.

They polled 11 states and 2000 people.

Even for FL (the biggest state) that would only mean 400 people polled.

For small states such as CO, it would mean only 100 people polled and MoE would be too high.
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dspNY
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« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2016, 11:36:13 am »
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Exit Poll 2012 & Total votes

CO: 2.57 Million votes x White 78% = 2.00
FL: 8.47 Million votes x White 67% = 5.67
IA: 1.58 Million votes x White 93% = 1.47
MI: 4.73 Million votes x White 77% = 3.64
NC: 4.50 Million votes x White 70% = 3.15
NH: 0.71 Million votes x White 93% = 0.66
NV: 1.01 Million votes x White 64% = 0.65
OH: 4.50 Million votes x White 79% = 3.55
PA: 5.75 Million votes x White 79% = 4.54
VA: 3.85 Million votes x White 70% = 2.70
WI: 4.73 Million votes x White 86% = 4.07

Total 42.40 Million votes  32.10 Million White voters

32.10 / 42.40 = 75.7%

imo turnouts in 2016 - White: Increase / Black: lower




Population growth in Florida, Nevada, Colorado, NC and population decline in PA, OH, WI, MI would lead to a slightly lower white turnout
« Last Edit: July 24, 2016, 11:40:49 am by dspNY »Logged
Ebsy
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« Reply #18 on: July 24, 2016, 02:06:22 pm »
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Polls of groups of states are meaningless/useless.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #19 on: July 24, 2016, 06:14:16 pm »
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Who wastes money conducting these "battleground states" polls, and why?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: July 24, 2016, 07:23:10 pm »
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What is this nonsense?
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jaichind
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« Reply #21 on: April 09, 2017, 06:52:45 pm »
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In retrospect this poll was spot on, very relevant, and consistent with a overall lead for Clinton nationwide (2.1%.)

A non-weighted result for these 11 states had Trump winning by 1% (47.6% vs 46.6%.)  A weighted result for these 11 states had Trump winning by 1.3% (48.0% vs 46.7%).

A non-weighted average of exit polls for these 11 states has Whites at 77% of the electorate.  A weighted average of exit polls for these 11 states has Whites at 74% of the electorate.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 07:36:45 pm by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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