NE-2 2016: Don Bacon vs. Brad Ashford: Who wins?

[Suburbia]

Nebraska Congressman Brad Ashford is a centrist Democrat in a swing-like district that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and voted for Republican Mitt Romney in 2012. He'll face off against Republican U.S. Air Force Brigadier Gen. Dan Bacon (Ret.) in November. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi endorsed and fund-raised for Ashford. This is where Omaha, Neb. is based. Who wins this seat?

http://www.omaha.com/news/nebraska/nancy-pelosi-jim-clyburn-dine-at-grey-plume-with-brad/article_e0a6d564-4b01-11e6-b015-03e9ae8732d6.html

[Heisenberg]

My gut says Ashford wins but I really hope Bacon wins.

[Heisenberg]

Ashford. Republicans really shouldn't have lost this district in 2014. Now Ashford might become entrenched.

I agree. What did Lee Terry do so wrong? Did he make some stupid comments during the government shutdown (I vaguely remember something along those lines)? I think military leaders in Congress are cool, but Ashford clearly has crossover appeal. He'll be tough to defeat. If it now, then maybe 2018, but if not then, then he's certainly entrenched.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Bacon!  I have a friend who has been campaigning for him, and it's a red district.

[Heisenberg]

Bacon!  I have a friend who has been campaigning for him, and it's a red district.

It's only R+4, and Ashford has a good amount of crossover appeal. I know it's wishful thinking, but I'd say Ashford is slightly favored at the moment. We do need some polling, though.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

A brigadier general in a red district... Am I crazy to think Bacon should have the advantage here?

[Zioneer]

Bacon has raised very little money, and Ashford managed to win previously in a red (atlas blue) district, in a very, very Republican year. I could see Ashford losing, but he's got cross-over appeal.

[Xing]

Ashford. Republicans could have found a better candidate than Bacom.

[Vosem]

Ashford, but he'll almost certainly be doomed in 2018.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Brad Ashford 53-47

[136or142]

Bacon has raised very little money, and Ashford managed to win previously in a red (atlas blue) district, in a very, very Republican year. I could see Ashford losing, but he's got cross-over appeal.

Actually Don Bacon has been taking home more of the bacon recently.  (Taking home more of himself?)

from opensecrets.org
http://www.opensecrets.org/races/election.php?state=NE

Brad Ashford (D)* $1,668,374
Don Bacon (R)    $658,542

Feel free to distribute or cite this material, but please credit the Center for Responsive Politics. For permission to reprint for commercial uses, such as textbooks, contact the Center: info@crp.org

[Vosem]

Ashford, but he'll almost certainly be doomed in 2018.

Why did this guy win again in 2014? I mean, seriously...

Because Lee Terry had reached the point where everyone hated him. Same reason FL-2 was lost.

Looks like a similar effect going on in NJ-5 this year, incidentally.

[136or142]

Ashford, but he'll almost certainly be doomed in 2018.

Why did this guy win again in 2014? I mean, seriously...

Because Lee Terry had reached the point where everyone hated him. Same reason FL-2 was lost.

Looks like a similar effect going on in NJ-5 this year, incidentally.

And with Frank Guinta in New Hampshire-1 I think.

[Vosem]

Ashford, but he'll almost certainly be doomed in 2018.

Why did this guy win again in 2014? I mean, seriously...

Because Lee Terry had reached the point where everyone hated him. Same reason FL-2 was lost.

Looks like a similar effect going on in NJ-5 this year, incidentally.

And with Frank Guinta in New Hampshire-1 I think.

Bad comparison because Guinta would probably have lost even without it weighing him down, whereas if Terry/Sutherland/Garrett were standard Republicans they wouldn't even have been endangered.

[136or142]

Ashford, but he'll almost certainly be doomed in 2018.

Why did this guy win again in 2014? I mean, seriously...

Because Lee Terry had reached the point where everyone hated him. Same reason FL-2 was lost.

Looks like a similar effect going on in NJ-5 this year, incidentally.

And with Frank Guinta in New Hampshire-1 I think.

Bad comparison because Guinta would probably have lost even without it weighing him down, whereas if Terry/Sutherland/Garrett were standard Republicans they wouldn't even have been endangered.

Guinta hasn't even lost yet!

[Devils30]

Think Hillary can win this district? It's possible

[Heisenberg]

Ashford, but he'll almost certainly be doomed in 2018.

Why did this guy win again in 2014? I mean, seriously...

Because Lee Terry had reached the point where everyone hated him. Same reason FL-2 was lost.

Looks like a similar effect going on in NJ-5 this year, incidentally.

And with Frank Guinta in New Hampshire-1 I think.

Bad comparison because Guinta would probably have lost even without it weighing him down, whereas if Terry/Sutherland/Garrett were standard Republicans they wouldn't even have been endangered.

Guinta hasn't even lost yet!

He's already doomed. He got really lucky in 2014, this year will be really good for Democrats in East Vermont... I mean, New Hampshire.

[IceSpear]

He's already doomed. He got really lucky in 2014, this year will be really good for Democrats in East Vermont... I mean, New Hampshire.

This. Guinta was always going to lose, even without this "scandal". NH is a solid blue state and he's running against a White woman. Safe D.

I'm pretty sure his opponent was a white woman in 2010 and 2014.

[JMT]

Ashford, but he'll almost certainly be doomed in 2018.

This. Ashford wins this year, but Republicans will find a better candidate in 2018 and it likely will be a better year for Republicans without Trump / midterms tend to favor Republicans / Hillary will likely be an unpopular president in 2018. 

[Suburbia]

Ashford did not attend Clinton's rally this afternoon in Omaha, Neb. He's distancing himself from her. If she wins this November, and he wins in November; if he runs again in 2018, he may distance himself from Clinton-Kaine and Obama in 2018, due to a midterm year.

https://morningconsult.com/alert/ashford-not-with-clinton-as-she-competes-for-omaha-too/

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/barack-obama-guns-moderate-democrats-217448

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Cuckgressive behavior.  Not good!

[Vega]

Ashford did not attend Clinton's rally this afternoon in Omaha, Neb. He's distancing himself from her. If she wins this November, and he wins in November; if he runs again in 2018, he may distance himself from Clinton-Kaine and Obama in 2018, due to a midterm year.

https://morningconsult.com/alert/ashford-not-with-clinton-as-she-competes-for-omaha-too/

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/barack-obama-guns-moderate-democrats-217448

Right. Because that's worked before.

[Kingpoleon]

Ashford needs to get the Clinton voters plus turnout young college aged people who are leaning towards Trump or are undecided or are supporting Johnson. As long as he gets all that he should be fine.

Tilt D. Ashford probably wins 49-47.

[Suburbia]

Ashford did not attend Clinton's rally this afternoon in Omaha, Neb. He's distancing himself from her. If she wins this November, and he wins in November; if he runs again in 2018, he may distance himself from Clinton-Kaine and Obama in 2018, due to a midterm year.

https://morningconsult.com/alert/ashford-not-with-clinton-as-she-competes-for-omaha-too/

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/barack-obama-guns-moderate-democrats-217448

Right. Because that's worked before.

Some of these voters there are not fans of Obama and progressive Democrats. Ashford may have to distance himself, but it is a tough thing.

[BL53931]

I live in NE-2. Ashford has done a  good job of distancing himself from national Democrats.  He has also been light years better than Lee Terry was on taking care of voters' needs in his district. I would not rule out Clinton winning this district. From what I hear, she is currently behind by low single digits.