Who wins NE-2?

[Suburbia]

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district was won by Barack Obama in 2008. It was won by Republican Mitt Romney in 2012. The district has a large percentage of black voters, in the city of Omaha; and Hillary Clinton has been advertising in the state. Who wins?

http://time.com/4389557/hillary-clinton-ad-nebraska/

[heatcharger]

If she's up 7 in the polls before the election, I'll say Hillary. If anything less than that, then Trump.

Right now it's too hard to tell.

[Spark]

Trump

[AGA]

Romney won it 53-46 in 2012, and that was with Obama winning the popular vote by around 4 points. It is not the same district as it was in 2008 because of the redistricting. I'd say that Trump wins this one, but I would like to see some polling here.

[Heisenberg]

Romney won it 53-46 in 2012, and that was with Obama winning the popular vote by around 4 points. It is not the same district as it was in 2008 because of the redistricting. I'd say that Trump wins this one, but I would like to see some polling here.

I agree. It was slightly altered in 2011. I say Tilt Trump right now, but we need polls.

[Xing]

Hillary would need to win by a pretty wide margin to carry NE-02. Right now, Trump is far more likely to win it.

[Young Conservative]

Trump. The better question is who wins Maine District 2.

[Kingpoleon]

Romney won it 53-46 in 2012, and that was with Obama winning the popular vote by around 4 points. It is not the same district as it was in 2008 because of the redistricting. I'd say that Trump wins this one, but I would like to see some polling here.

So Hillary needs an eleven point win nationally to win here? 53-42 would be basically impossible to get.

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton should over perform Obama in the bigger metro areas of the plains, so I would say its a complete toss-up, just depends on what the race looks like in October. Clinton if I'm pushed honestly.

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton should over perform Obama in the bigger metro areas of the plains, so I would say its a complete toss-up, just depends on what the race looks like in October. Clinton if I'm pushed honestly.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Trump

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Because of redistricting since 2008 when Obama won it, the district will be TPed.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely the Trumpster. With a 65-70% chance. He will nevertheless lose the electoral college by 347-191 (2012 plus NC for Hillary).

[HillOfANight]

http://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/federal-politics/details-released-on-hillary-clinton-s-nebraska-visit/article_7aa8916c-1b35-5667-b5a9-3a8b85e9606a.html

She's coming here Monday August 1st. Looking at 270towin.com map, if she wins PA, CO, VA, WI, and adds NE-2, she wins (without NV, IA, NH, OH, FL, NC).

[Ljube]

Who cares?

[AGA]

http://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/federal-politics/details-released-on-hillary-clinton-s-nebraska-visit/article_7aa8916c-1b35-5667-b5a9-3a8b85e9606a.html

She's coming here Monday August 1st. Looking at 270towin.com map, if she wins PA, CO, VA, WI, and adds NE-2, she wins (without NV, IA, NH, OH, FL, NC).

Clinton is not winning NE-2 while losing most of those states in parentheses.

[Suburbia]

http://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/federal-politics/details-released-on-hillary-clinton-s-nebraska-visit/article_7aa8916c-1b35-5667-b5a9-3a8b85e9606a.html

She's coming here Monday August 1st. Looking at 270towin.com map, if she wins PA, CO, VA, WI, and adds NE-2, she wins (without NV, IA, NH, OH, FL, NC).

Thank you for posting it. I was almost doing so. She could win NE-2. It's possible.

[Hammy]

Trump. I don't really see this as being in play.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Trump.  Going to Omaha is mostly about the effect across the border in western Iowa.

[TomC]

Trump

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Did Obama spend any money in Omaha during 2012?  I know Hillary is pouring resources into it this year, so I don't think a Democratic victory is completely out of the question. 

[Human]

Donald Trump, very narrowly.

[rbt48]

Really, she is unlikely to win NE-2 as (others have noted) it was redistricted after the 2010 census to move a much more Republican part of Sarpy County into the district.  I agree that her visit to Omaha is more to influence western Iowa.

[Gass3268]

Did Obama spend any money in Omaha during 2012?  I know Hillary is pouring resources into it this year, so I don't think a Democratic victory is completely out of the question. 

Yes, but it was primarily for Western Iowa. NE-2 was a potential added bonus.

Trump, but it will be closer than ME-2.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Obama was a was an excellent candidate for the Midwest in 2008. I mean he won Michigan by 17 points and had a similar blowout in WI, he even won the white vote in Michigan. I don't see Hillary having that same Midwestern/Western appeal that Obama had that led him to win the district.