I'm thinking it goes to a contested convention and Trump has the plurality. First of all, Cruz would clearly cross the 50% WTA threshold in Texas with a weaker Trump. Cruz sweeps on 3/5. Then Trump rebounds into the Midwest. A stronger Rubio still fails to win anything on 3/8, but Cruz is able to WTA Idaho with >50%. A stronger Rubio actually costs Kasich Ohio while coming within 5% of Trump in Florida but still losing. He then drops out on 3/15. Kasich stays in for the NE states, but finds himself even more of a 3rd wheel than IRL. Still, Cruz does well enough in IN to stay in through 6/7 and prevent Trump from clinching prior to the RNC.
The outcome is a Cruz/Trump ticket.
In this scenario I see Cruz winning Indiana and also propels Stutzman over Young.
