The current Democratic coalition of ethnic minorities and urban progressives is simply not enough to win elections cycle after cycle. And given the fact that working class whites and union workers are now leaving the party in droves, the Democratic party has to do something fast to fill in that gap. Either by making itself more palatable to working class whites (that doesn't mean becoming the GOP, mind you) or crossing its fingers and hoping that Latinos will start reproducing like rabbits.
I agree that Democrats shouldn't expect minorities to
always vote Democratic as they are now, but this is also what I think in general:
1. The non-white share of the electorate is growing at roughly 2% - 3% every 4 years, and this has been consistent for decades. Birthrates do not suggest any halt to this. At this rate, in 20 years, the electorate will be 40% non-white
(at 2% growth every 4 years). That is
terrible for Republicans any way you spin it.
2. Republicans have not only made no progress on minority outreach, they are literally going even further backwards now and are set to lose the non-white vote by even more than 4 years ago. It's getting to the point where a Democratic presidential candidate can expect
almost unanimous support from non-white voters.
3. Republicans have not been able to make any significant inroads with minorities in literally
generations. They have only
lost more minority groups since the 60s. Not only does Trump not signify a halt to this trend, he signifies an
acceleration. Hispanic and Asian Millennials are actually more Democratic than their parents. Only AA Millennials appear to be a tiny bit less Democratic than their elders
(by 1% or 2% off the top of my head)4. I've said it 2180312 times and I'll say it again: Millennials are not going to turn conservative/Republican en masse when they age. They will probably become a little less Democratic, but Democrats already have such huge gaping support from them that even losing support still puts them way over the top. Millennials will most definitely remain a liberal/Democratic generation, just like a majority of silent generation/boomers are Republican.
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At some point Republicans will find a way in because not doing so means they cease to become a national force. The only future for Republicans is making inroads with minorities. Anyone who thinks Republicans will somehow capture all white voters or even substantially more (15%+) of them is delusional - No data suggests they can do that - Not when Millennial whites are
more Democratic than the current older voters giving Republicans their white voter edge.
However, I wouldn't be surprised if minorities give Democrats a huge edge in national politics for at least another generation or more. There is no evidence
right now even suggesting a pending migration away from Democrats. It will happen eventually, but to think that it will sharply reverse in the next 20 years is very wishful thinking, imo. It's reasonable for Democrats to bank on this support now, and then they can
(and surely will) reevaluate years from now when changes begin to appear.
