Who will succeed Netanyahu as Israel's Prime Minister, and when?

[Californiadreaming]

Who do you think will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as Israel's Prime Minister, and when exactly?

Also, for the record, I certainly hope that Netanyahu's replacement will be more pro-peace than Netanyahu is. After all, I have already given up hope that Netanyahu will significantly advance the peace process forward under his watch.

[Californiadreaming]

How many people here are knowledgeable about Israeli politics?

[SATW]

I follow it very closely.

The short answer to both questions is that nobody really knows. Bibi is a master politician and has proven to be difficult to defeat. He's only lost two elections his long career (1999 elections and 2006 elections).

I say he will eventually retire from office. If the current term last all four years than I can see him retiring. That would be in 2019 (if this is the case, he will outlast Israel's Founder, David Ben-Gurion, as longest serving PM).

If a snap election is called before 2019, I say odds are he likely runs again (of course, this depends on the situation leading up to a snap election).

IF Bibi retires...than his party, the Likud, will likely have a clown car primary for leadership. Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, Former Likud Cabinet Member Gideon Sa'ar, current Likud #2/Veteran Cabinet Member Gilad Erdan, and potentially others, would be potential candidates.

IF Bibi doesn't retire...I can see the veteran PM moving primary elections early (as he has always done) to avoid a challenge from someone like Sa'ar or even former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon. Both men are former Bibi allies who now dislike him.

If Bibi runs...his main opposition will come from the Zionist Union (Labor + Hatnuah; Center-Left party) and Yesh Atid (Centrist).

The ZU is mainly made up of Labor, the center-left party, but since the beginning of the 21st century we have seen a big decline in the Israeli mainstream left's cohesiveness. The ZU leaders, Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni (charlie crist of israel) are both not very well liked within the alliance and Herzog has made some big gaffes and errors that may cost him the leadership soon. If he goes down than the ZU will collapse and Labor will run on it's own again.

Amir Peretz and Shelly Yachimovich are the two names I always see floated as potential people who would challenge Herzog. Both are failed Labor party leaders. They are mentor and protege, essentially, but Yachimovich has run and beaten Peretz in the past: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Labor_Party_leadership_election,_2011

Erel Margalit, a Labor Member of Knesset, is someone I think may also potentially challenge Herzog but this is all just speculation until a leadership election happens. One of our Israeli posters would know more about that, though.

Yair Lapid, leader of Yesh Atid, is in solid position to jump the ZU for the second place slot. I personally think that Yesh Atid would lead a coalition that would topple Bibi's Likud. Yesh Atid is center to center-left but recently it's been drifting to the pure center or even slightly center-right.


Other parties include Kulanu (Center to center-right), Yisrael Beiteinu (secular nationalist right), The Jewish Home (Religious Zionism; Right-Wing), the Joint List (Arab interests; Anti-Israel/Anti-Zionism), Meretz (left-wing)and the religious bloc parties (Shas, United Torah Judaism, Yachad).

I think I explained things decently, but I'm an American Jew who follows it. I think one of our Israeli posters, Hnv1 and Danny, would bring excellent contributions to your questions. Both usually post in the Israel Maps/elections thread.


I'm a Bibi loyalist and a strong supporter of Likud and if/when Bibi retires...I want Nir Barkat to become the next PM.

[SATW]

https://knessetjeremy.com/

Also, this is a great blog to get some info on Israeli politics. The latest post is from 23 July and it shows the latest poll for the Knesset.

[Hnv1]

Well he's more likely to be out of office due to "corruption" allegations that are now knocking at his house door in a bundle (unsurprisingly all having to do with his wife). Intensive investigations opened in recent months.
Likud doesn't topple reigning leaders, and the centre-centre\left has no one to offer, Herzog is unelectable and Lapid will never gather the required number of hands for a coalition (his ego is also far to big to be someone's number 2).
If they don't charge him then for now he stays put, if they do want to charge him he'll call a snap election to put pressure against that. What happens if they charge him and he's out? the picture is not clear enough atm to determine

[Californiadreaming]

Well he's more likely to be out of office due to "corruption" allegations that are now knocking at his house door in a bundle (unsurprisingly all having to do with his wife). Intensive investigations opened in recent months.
Likud doesn't topple reigning leaders, and the centre-centre\left has no one to offer, Herzog is unelectable and Lapid will never gather the required number of hands for a coalition (his ego is also far to big to be someone's number 2).
If they don't charge him then for now he stays put, if they do want to charge him he'll call a snap election to put pressure against that. What happens if they charge him and he's out? the picture is not clear enough atm to determine

Out of curiosity--would a different Labor leader be more electable than Herzog is?

[Californiadreaming]

I follow it very closely.

The short answer to both questions is that nobody really knows. Bibi is a master politician and has proven to be difficult to defeat. He's only lost two elections his long career (1999 elections and 2006 elections).

Yes, Netanyahu is certainly a political animal. Indeed, he already showed that back in 1996 when he managed to defeat Peres in spite of the popularity boost that Peres previously got as a result of Rabin's extremely tragic assassination.

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So, in other words, Netanyahu cares a lot about breaking Ben-Gurion's record, correct?

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Who exactly would be the likely winner of a new Likud leadership contest after Netanyahu will retire, though?

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Out of curiosity--why exactly does Saar dislike Netanyahu?

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Completely agreed.

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This big decline is a result of the Second Intifada, correct?

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Another Labor leader isn't going to be able to hold the Zionist Union together?

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What about some new people, though? Indeed, I certainly think that Labor needs someone new in the leadership post. Plus, didn't Peretz (and Olmert) strongly screw up the Second Lebanon War back in 2006?

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OK.

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What exactly will this anti-Netanyahu coalition look like, though?

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Is Yachad actually going to run again in the next elections, though?

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If so, then I will try having a long conversation about this with both of them.

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Out of curiosity--why exactly do you support Likud?

Also, for the record, if you are curious, I have previously supported Likud and Netanyahu but have already lost all hope that Netanyahu will be able to successfully create a final peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinians (specifically the Palestinian Authority). Indeed, while I am certainly very hawkish in regards to responding to terrorism (for instance, I think that Sharon's anti-terrorism operations during the Second Intifada were certainly extremely good moves), I also certainly support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (I suppose along the lines of the 2003 Geneva Initiative). While I certainly don't have any illusions that a final peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinians is going to result in miracles, I nevertheless support the peace process because, in addition to my support for the principle of national self-determination, I think that a Palestinian state will result in a better legal and international situation for Israel (for instance, there would be much less international pressure on Israel and Israel will probably be able to sue a Palestinian state in international courts for any violations of this peace treaty). Plus, it would certainly be nice for Israel to finally have permanent borders.

Anyway, while I certainly cannot vote in Israeli elections due to the fact that I live in the U.S., I would think that I would vote for either Kulanu or Yesh Atid if I actually lived in Israel. Indeed, the fact that Israel's lax response to terrorism back in the 1990s paved the way for the Second Intifada to break out at the start of the 2000s makes me hesitant to support Labor.

[Californiadreaming]

Also, if you are curious, Yes, I certainly support the Oslo Accords. Indeed, I simply think that Israel's governments in the 1990s were too lax--indeed, perhaps way too lax--in their response to Palestinian terrorism.

[Californiadreaming]

https://knessetjeremy.com/

Also, this is a great blog to get some info on Israeli politics. The latest post is from 23 July and it shows the latest poll for the Knesset.

Thanks for sharing this link with me!

[Hnv1]

Well he's more likely to be out of office due to "corruption" allegations that are now knocking at his house door in a bundle (unsurprisingly all having to do with his wife). Intensive investigations opened in recent months.
Likud doesn't topple reigning leaders, and the centre-centre\left has no one to offer, Herzog is unelectable and Lapid will never gather the required number of hands for a coalition (his ego is also far to big to be someone's number 2).
If they don't charge him then for now he stays put, if they do want to charge him he'll call a snap election to put pressure against that. What happens if they charge him and he's out? the picture is not clear enough atm to determine

Out of curiosity--would a different Labor leader be more electable than Herzog is?

Might be, but no such person is in sight

[SATW]

Yes, Bibi's potential corruption issues could prove to be problematic but at this time it is just speculation until a recommendation or indictment is made. I think he will be vindicated but that may be just wishful thinking (as I said, I'm a Bibi loyalist).



In response to your comments, Californiadreaming:

- I'm not sure if Bibi is actively trying to break the record but certainly I think he would like to.
- I'm not sure who would win because there are so many variables to look at. It will depend on how Bibi leaves (retirement, resignation, etc...etc...) as it completely changes the situation.
- Part of Bibi's cunning political reputation has to do with the fact that he kills off potential political opponents before they can threaten him. He's done this to many people already and Sa'ar is one of them. I don't know the exact specifics of the feud between them but both have certainly antagonized each other.
- Yes, Israeli public got tired of failed peace talks and increased terrorist attacks during the early 2000's.
- Labor's membership hates the alliance with Livni, so I don't it'll survive under a different leader. Livni is seen as insincere in her views. She was a major proponent of right-wing privatization in the 1990's, who than became a moderate in the 2000's and now is trying to be center-left lol.

I support Likud because I believe in a strong national security state. I believe Israel has exhausted many of it's diplomatic options and that peace cannot be made until corruption and extremism is ruled out of the Palestinian Authority. I certainly believe in peace and want a long-term peace solution but I don't think it's possible atm.  But, ideology is Israel is complicated and I'm certainly not Likud on every set of issues.
 

- I'm a strong Likudnik on foreign policy, counter-terrorism and national security.
- The Jewish Home and I agree more on settlements and justice issues.
- Yisrael Beiteinu's party is actually designed for people like me (Post-USSR Jews, who are either secular or just traditional but are ultra-nationalists) but I prefer Likud anyways.
- I'm closer to Kulanu/Yesh Atid on some religious issues and closer to Likud on others. (I'm somewhere in between, tbh).
- On some social issues, such as LGBT rights and marijuana legalization, I am closer to the Zionist Union and even Meretz.
- On the economy, I prefer Netanyahu's  Thatcher-esque policies (however, some members of Likud are not right-wing on economics). Kulanu's economics are ok as well.

Also, I just really like Netanyahu as a leader. He speaks the same style of language as American Jewish right-wing Zionists. He makes firm decisions, without coming off as a populist nut, and, imo, has done a good job of sticking up for Israel's interests. My family are mostly loyalists for him as well and that plays a role as well.

[Hnv1]

Anyway, while I certainly cannot vote in Israeli elections due to the fact that I live in the U.S., I would think that I would vote for either Kulanu or Yesh Atid if I actually lived in Israel. Indeed, the fact that Israel's lax response to terrorism back in the 1990s paved the way for the Second Intifada to break out at the start of the 2000s makes me hesitant to support Labor.

Well this is far from being historically accurate, it wasn't lax response to terrorism so much as the inherent problems of the Oslo accords (the left talked about them from the start) and if there are 3 individuals that could be blamed really for this outburst that Bibi (for his 96-9 tenure), Barak (for so many thing) and Arfaat. But this is not the place to start debating this

[SATW]

Hnv1, I'm curious, which party do you support (I'm assuming somewhere on the left lol).

[Californiadreaming]

Anyway, while I certainly cannot vote in Israeli elections due to the fact that I live in the U.S., I would think that I would vote for either Kulanu or Yesh Atid if I actually lived in Israel. Indeed, the fact that Israel's lax response to terrorism back in the 1990s paved the way for the Second Intifada to break out at the start of the 2000s makes me hesitant to support Labor.

Well this is far from being historically accurate, it wasn't lax response to terrorism so much as the inherent problems of the Oslo accords (the left talked about them from the start) and if there are 3 individuals that could be blamed really for this outburst that Bibi (for his 96-9 tenure), Barak (for so many thing) and Arfaat. But this is not the place to start debating this

What exactly is the place to start debating this, though? After all, I am certainly interested in hearing you elaborate on what you wrote here.

[Famous Mortimer]

Gilad Erdan from Likud
Gideon Sa'ar from either Likud or a new BS centrist party
Gabe Ashkenazi from either Labor or a new BS centrist party
Shelly Yachimovich from Labor
Amir Peretz from Labor

Long shots:

Naftali Bennett from The Jewish Home
Avigdor Lieberman but only if he somehow manages to take over Likud
 

[Californiadreaming]

Gilad Erdan from Likud
Gideon Sa'ar from either Likud or a new BS centrist party
Gabe Ashkenazi from either Labor or a new BS centrist party
Shelly Yachimovich from Labor
Amir Peretz from Labor

Long shots:

Naftali Bennett from The Jewish Home
Avigdor Lieberman but only if he somehow manages to take over Likud

Wasn't Amir Peretz's credibility damaged due to his bungling of the Second Lebanon War (back in 2006), though?

[Californiadreaming]

Yes, Bibi's potential corruption issues could prove to be problematic but at this time it is just speculation until a recommendation or indictment is made. I think he will be vindicated but that may be just wishful thinking (as I said, I'm a Bibi loyalist).

OK.

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Frankly, all of this certainly makes sense.

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Why exactly, though?

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If Livni is perceived as being insincere in her political views, though, wouldn't the same also be true for Israeli politicians such as Ehud Olmert? (Yes, Olmert is in jail right now, but I don't hear Israeli leftists attack Olmert for being insincere in his political views.)

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Well, that's something that both you and I agree on.

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Israel can agree to an international format for Israeli-Palestinian talks, though. Indeed, take a look at the previous nuclear talks with Iran for an example of such a format being used for negotiations.

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Eh ... I'm not so sure that I agree with that. Indeed, didn't Olmert come close to making peace with Abbas in 2008 (before Olmert had to resign due to corruption allegations)?

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Out of curiosity--what kind of peace do you support?

As for me, I support a two-state solution based on the 2003 Geneva Initiative but with some pro-Israel modifications (specifically Israel should keep Har Homa, the Temple Mount should either be put under Israeli sovereignty or be put under dual Israeli-Palestinian sovereignty, et cetera):



Also, to clarify--I certainly do think that both corruption and extremism in the Palestinian Authority should be rooted out. However, what concerns me in the near-term is this: Can the Palestinians sign a final peace treaty with Israel and are they actually willing to honor this peace treaty with Israel afterwards? Indeed, the Palestinians can deal with corruption and extremism afterwards if they are (unfortunately) unwilling to deal with these issues right now.

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OK.

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Same here, actually.

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Care to please elaborate on the "justice issues" part?

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Out of curiosity--exactly what ex-USSR country are you and/or your parents from?

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OK.

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Good to hear! Also, same here!

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Frankly, this is where you and I appear to disagree. Indeed, I would probably agree more on economics with Labor/the Zionist Union, Kulanu, probably Meretz, and maybe Yesh Atid.

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Frankly, I think that Netanyahu made an excessively large deal out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

[Californiadreaming]

Also, for the record, even if peace (hypothetically) cannot be made right now, Israel can at least implement a plan similar to this one in the near future :



Indeed, implementing such a plan would certainly be better than the status quo, no?

[SATW]

I support a two-state solution, technically, but here are my requirements for one I would support: (It'd likely never happen, but I can dream).

What the PA would need to do:

- Fatah purges itself of any extremist elements
- Fatah recognizes Israel as a Jewish State AND denounces all forms of extremism towards Israel and its people.
- Fatah or another party (preferably a more moderate one) leads the PA (I actually would like to see Salam Fayyad be the PM of the PA, but this is never going to happen, sadly)
- The PA must prove that it would hold elections immediately after agreeing to a peace agreement. *
- Israel is allowed to keep limited security forces operating within a Palestinian state for 5 years to ensure radical islamic/Hamas influence is permanently purged. Also, only once this period ends can the PA have its own functional military (it can have a police force, to protect its citizen before/during/after that period, of course).
- Fatah needs to formally, officially, publicly etc... denounce/label Hamas as a terrorist organization and end it's "unity government" with it (which, unless I am mistaken, is still a thing...).
- The PA must reach trade agreements/similar arrangements with Israel, Jordan and/or Egypt for basic economic needs (water, energy etc...); I am sure this is something that the PA would want anyways.
- The PA/Fatah must end calls for a B.S. "right to return" for Palestinians within Israel.
- The PA/Fatah must end any attempt to divide Jerusalem; Jerusalem must remain the undivided capital of Israel.
- The PA/Fatah needs to stop giving financial welfare/alimony/support to the families of terrorists who have killed Israeli citizens.
- Ensure the protection and human rights of any minority populations (mainly christian minorities) within the border of a Palestinian State.
- The borders that are negotiated will be final. No swaps, no complaints, no more talks. This would be final.

* The only exception would be if Hamas is likely to take over the west bank's PA-controlled areas if an election was called. In fact, if this was the case I'd oppose ANY peace talks until Hamas' grip here is purged.

Some requirements for my map:
- Israel keeps ALL of Jerusalem and settlements near by (Mu'ale Adumim, Har Homa etc...)
- Israel keeps major settlements with big populations (Modiin Illit, Ariel, Gush Etzion, Givat Ze’ev, Kiryat Arba, Beitar Illit  etc...)
- Palestinian capital would be Ramallah and Israel dismantles any settlement that is considered to be close to Ramallah in geography (with the exception of Talmon and possibly Psagot)
- The following cities would, along with Ramallah, be apart of a Palestinian state with 100% certainty: Jenin, Jericho, Al-Bireh, Nablus, Tulkarm, Kalkliya and Bethlehem.
- Hebron must be negotiated, with a potential split occurring. Settlers' presence have increased way too much here for it to be entirely given away and the Palestinian presence here is too big to be entirely given to Israel.
- Settlements bordering Israel will be kept in Israeli hands.
- Settlements that are east of Jericho and near the border of Jordan will be given away to the Palestinians. The settlers that are forced to relocate will be compensated $500,000 NIS per family. ($300,000 NIS for households with only one resident) and will be offered housing units in settlements kept by Israel of equal value of their old homes
- Settlements that are close to Kalkliya and Tulkarm may or may not be dismantled depending on final borders, but like the settlements east of Jericho, the settlers will be compensated with the same figures listed above.
- Everything else will be negotiated and discussed.


I do like another plan more, it is called the Palestinian emirates plan and was made by Dr. Mordechai Kedar. http://www.palestinianemirates.com/

I think this plan is better for Israel and also for Palestinians but it will never happen, imo.


Of course, none of this would even be a conversation for me if the PA doesn't meet most of my demands listed above.

[SATW]

Response to your other comments:

- Livni just has a very bad reputation among most partisans in Israel now. The Yachimovich/Peretz wing of Labor don't like her due to her past as a prominent person in Bibi's 1996-1999 gov't. During her tenure here, she pushed a lot of privatization plans for the economy. Yachimovich and Peretz are more left-wing on the economy and want those issues addressed more.
- Olmert's party switch was different. His wife and kids are left-wing, so a shift to the middle by him makes a bit more sense. Though, he was still pretty right-wing as Mayor of Jerusalem. Also, he, along with many MKs who joined Kadima claimed loyalty for Ariel Sharon as part of why they moved to the center. Livni did this as well, but remember she was Likud, than Kadima, than Hatnuah and now Zionist Union. More less consistent than others who left Likud in 2005-2006.
- In regards to my agreement with The Jewish home...I strongly support the new NGO Law that Ayelet Shaked created. I also think she's done a great job as Justice Minister and that this ministry is in better hands with her than with Likud.
- My family lived in Russia, but not in European Russia.
- Olmert's plan was rejected by Abbas, iirc (http://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-admits-he-rejected-2008-peace-offer-from-olmert/)

EDIT: Forgot about your Peretz comment. Yea, he was damaged from that and from the years afterwards but he left politics a few years ago and somehow found a way to be liked again lol.

[Hnv1]

Hnv1, I'm curious, which party do you support (I'm assuming somewhere on the left lol).

I was and still am a Meretz member for years but I don't quite the direction the party is heading but will probably still vote them next cycle.

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worthy to note that usually that after losing leadership it take's the right a whole cycle to get back on it's feet. Erdan is nowhere near qualified enough in general public eyes. Sa'ar is touted by Yediot but I doubt the traction this glass snake actually has. Ashkenazi has no platform to run as number 1. Yechimovic and Peretz could win a labour election but not carry a GE.
If Bennett and Lieberman want to be PMs (more likely in the case of the first) they need to merge with Likud

[DavidB.]

Didn't read this, but the answer's Nir Barkat.

[Famous Mortimer]

Hnv1, I'm curious, which party do you support (I'm assuming somewhere on the left lol).

I was and still am a Meretz member for years but I don't quite the direction the party is heading but will probably still vote them next cycle.

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worthy to note that usually that after losing leadership it take's the right a whole cycle to get back on it's feet. Erdan is nowhere near qualified enough in general public eyes. Sa'ar is touted by Yediot but I doubt the traction this glass snake actually has. Ashkenazi has no platform to run as number 1. Yechimovic and Peretz could win a labour election but not carry a GE.
If Bennett and Lieberman want to be PMs (more likely in the case of the first) they need to merge with Likud

What direction is Meretz heading that you don't like?

[Hnv1]

Didn't read this, but the answer's Nir Barkat.

David I'm disappointed, despite our ideological difference you usually have sharp political senses...let put a wager? I'm that certain Barakat is not going to be Likud's leader let alone PM (and his flip flops about the LGBTQ parade in Jerusalem surely didn't help). But he simply doesn't have the ground forces to take Likud and he's not liked enough to carry enough weight by his own.

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Elevation of Oslo process to a religious sacrament by Galon, take the box burn it and think outside of it.
The crappy crony-socialism of the days of the worker federation by Gilon and his militant youth supporters. Oh and how could I forget the post-modernist identity politics kids with delusional reading of reality (the Zandberg, whom i personally like, branch).

I guess I would like a joint Jewish-Arab, fiscally SD but not too whack, with an emphasis on individual liberty and secular identity, and very mellow on Zionism and militarist fetishism. A list of the likes of Borg, Hanin, Odeh, Raz with some new young radical figures.

[Californiadreaming]

I support a two-state solution, technically, but here are my requirements for one I would support: (It'd likely never happen, but I can dream).

OK.

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OK.

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What about having Fatah recognize Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people (as per the 1947 U.N. Palestine Partition Plan), though?

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Completely agreed.

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Isn't Mahmoud Abbas a member of Fatah, though?

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Why exactly, though? After all, I would argue that stability and peace is more important than democracy--especially in the Muslim world.

Indeed, take a look at Egypt, where democracy resulted in a victory for the Muslim Brotherhood in 2012!

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Makes sense.

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Completely agreed.

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Isn't it only "a thing" on paper (at least right now), though?

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Completely agreed.

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Completely agreed. After all, ethnic Germans who got expelled from what is now Kaliningrad Oblast in 1945 (along with their descendants, of course) certainly don't have a right of return to Kaliningrad Oblast, now do they? Thus, why exactly should the Palestinians have a right of return to Israel proper?

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Why exactly, though? Indeed, wouldn't holding a sovereignty referendum in the Arab-majority neighborhoods of East Jerusalem be a better and fairer solution to this?

Plus, do you want Israel to continue subsiding and financially supporting 250,000+ overwhelmingly poor East Jerusalem Arabs? Indeed, wouldn't that money be better spent on other things?

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Completely, 100% agreed.

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Completely agreed.

Also, though, do you think that Jewish Israeli settlers should be allowed to live in a Palestinian state and to acquire Palestinian citizenship?

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Completely agreed.

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Purging Hamas's grip isn't necessarily going to prevent Hamas from winning future elections, though.

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Why exactly, though? After all, some of the Arab-majority areas of Jerusalem weren't even a part of Jerusalem before 1967:

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First of all, Har Homa is a part of East Jerusalem rather than a settlement.

Anyway, though, I certainly completely agree with this.

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Both Kiryat Arba and Ariel appear to be located way too deep inside of the West Bank, though.

However, I would probably agree with annexing all of the other Israeli settlements which are listed here.

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OK.

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Would an Israeli enclave deep inside of a Palestinian state really be a good idea, though?

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Completely agreed.

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Completely agreed.

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Isn't that a lot of money, though?

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Again, isn't that a lot of money?

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OK.

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I'll certainly make sure to take a look at this plan!

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OK; understood.