What would each candidate get in a 100% turnout race?
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  What would each candidate get in a 100% turnout race?
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Author Topic: What would each candidate get in a 100% turnout race?  (Read 730 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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« on: July 25, 2016, 02:57:04 PM »

Suppose between now and election day, everyone eligible to vote is registered, and that they subsequently are all motivated and able to show up to vote, know at least a bit about where all the candidates stand (don't just throw a dart) and can vote for the candidate of their choice. Who wins and by how much? What do the third-partiers get?

You can point to the old adage that in higher-turnout races Democrats do better, but you can also make the argument that this is only for elections that are already around 50-60% turnout. The least likely voters in the US, (the last 25% of holdouts in a 75% turnout election) I would think, are probably more likely to vote third-party.

So here's my guess:

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 42%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%
Castle - 1%
Other - 3%
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2016, 03:10:44 PM »

More like, and this is literally just because of trump:

Clinton: 54%
trump: 44%
Johnson: 5%
Other: 5%
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Ljube
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2016, 03:11:48 PM »

Hillary 55%
Trump 45%
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PeteB
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2016, 03:17:15 PM »

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 2%
Other - 5%
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2016, 03:18:46 PM »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/widgets/2016/turnout_two_party_vote.html

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

538's model gives Clinton a 56-42 victory and 2012+NC+AZ.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2016, 03:21:56 PM »

Uhhhhh, in a 2-way, it'd be about

Clinton 65%
Trump 35%
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2016, 03:23:42 PM »

Uhhhhh, in a 2-way, it'd be about

Clinton 65%
Trump 35%

That's too much. Wink
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2016, 03:26:50 PM »


It's only a slight exaggeration if you actually look at demographics. Because Clinton gets less than standard Democrat
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2016, 03:40:21 PM »

More like, and this is literally just because of trump:

Clinton: 54%
trump: 44%
Johnson: 5%
Other: 5%

That adds up to 108%. Smiley
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2016, 03:44:57 PM »

More like, and this is literally just because of trump:

Clinton: 54%
trump: 44%
Johnson: 5%
Other: 5%

That adds up to 108%. Smiley

Whoops, brain fart.

Okay, try again:

Clinton: 54%

trump: 39%
Johnson: 6%
Other: 1%
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2016, 04:12:17 PM »


Interestingly, RCP says Clinton 53-47 and 2012 minus OH.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2016, 04:18:08 PM »

Pretty sure if we had Australian compulsory voting, we'd get a lot of troll votes for Rod Silva.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2016, 04:33:21 PM »

Uhhhhh, in a 2-way, it'd be about

Clinton 65%
Trump 35%

If Tim Kaine hadn't ruined everything, Clinton could have very well won by 30% if there was 100% turnout.
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2016, 07:00:57 PM »

Uhhhhh, in a 2-way, it'd be about

Clinton 65%
Trump 35%

If Tim Kaine hadn't ruined everything, Clinton could have very well won by 30% if there was 100% turnout.

Kaine has not destroyed the Democratic tickets electability. Being meh from a policy perspective doesn't necessarily mean electoral poison.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2016, 08:45:29 AM »

More like, and this is literally just because of trump:

Clinton: 54%
trump: 44%
Johnson: 5%
Other: 5%

That exceeds 100% Wink


My guess:

Clinton: 53%
Trump: 42%
Johnson: 3%
Other: 2%
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2016, 09:55:15 AM »

If under compulsory voting Trump would win as an FU to the establishment.
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